UK Retail Futures 2012: Food & Grocery

Table of Contents

• CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
  • Key Findings
  • Main Conclusions
• CHAPTER 2 FORECAST SUMMARY
  • Expenditure Summary
  • Inflation
  • Share of Retail Spending
  • Grocers: Sales
  • Grocers: The Rise of Non-food
• CHAPTER 3 KEY MARKET ISSUES
  • Summary
  • Impact of Tough Economic Conditions - History Repeating?
  • The Changing Consumer
    • Premiumisation of Food
    • Convenience
    • Environmentally Responsible Retailing
  • Retail Price Inflation
  • Space Expansion
    • Tesco
    • Asda
    • Sainsbury
    • Morrison
  • Growth of Non-food via Grocers
• CHAPTER 4 ALL GROCERS & FOOD SPECIALISTS
  • Retail Sales
  • Sources of Sales Growth
  • Share of Total UK Retail Sales
  • Store Numbers
  • Space Growth
  • Sales Densities
• CHAPTER 5 GROCERS
  • Retail Sales
  • Sources of Sales Growth
  • Share of Sector Specialists Sales
  • Store Numbers
  • Space Growth
  • Sales Densities
• CHAPTER 6 FOOD SPECIALISTS
  • Retail Sales
  • Sources of Sales Growth
  • Share of Sector Specialists Sales
  • Store Numbers
  • Space Growth
  • Sales Densities
• CHAPTER 7 OFF-LICENCES AND TOBACCONISTS
  • Retail Sales
  • Sources of Sales Growth
  • Share of Sector Specialists Sales
  • Store Numbers
  • Space Growth
  • Sales Densities
• CHAPTER 8 CHANNELS OF DISTRIBUTION
  • Sales & Spending
  • Food & Grocery Market Shares
• CHAPTER 9 CATEGORY FORECASTS
  • Expenditure Summary
  • Expenditure Analysis
  • Food & Grocery Market
  • Food
  • Bakery & Cereals
  • Dairy Products
  • Fruit & Vegetables
  • Hot Drinks
  • Meat & Fish
  • Oils & Fats
  • Pets, Petcare & Petfood
  • Sugar & Sweet Products
  • Other Food
  • Alcoholic Drinks
  • Beer
  • Spirits
  • Wine
  • Soft Drinks
  • Tobacco
  • Non-durable Household Goods
• CHAPTER 10 UK ECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Key Messages
  • Gross Domestic Product - GDP
    • How does it affect retail?
    • What' s happened?
    • What will happen?
  • Earnings Growth
    • How does it affect retail?
    • What' s happened?
    • What will happen?
  • Real Household Disposable Income
    • How does it affect retail?
    • What' s happened?
    • What will happen?
  • Employment
    • How does it affect retail?
    • What' s happened?
    • What will happen?
  • Inflation
    • How does it affect retail?
    • What' s happened?
    • What will happen?
  • Exchange Rates
    • How do they affect retail?
    • What' s happened?
    • What will happen?
  • Interest Rates
    • How do they affect retail?
    • What' s happened?
    • What will happen?
  • Savings Ratio
    • How does it affect retail?
    • What' s happened?
    • What will happen?
  • Consumer Debt
    • How does it affect retail?
    • What' s happened?
    • What will happen?
  • Equities
    • How does it affect retail?
    • What' s happened?
    • What will happen?
  • House Price Inflation
    • How does it affect retail?
    • What' s happened?
    • What will happen?
  • Housing Equity Withdrawal
    • How does it affect retail?
    • What' s happened?
    • What will happen?
  • Housing Transactions
    • How does it affect retail?
    • What' s happened?
    • What will happen?
• CHAPTER 11 UK RETAILING FORECASTS
  • Key Indicators
  • Retail Expenditure 1997-2012
  • Sales by Location 2007-2012
  • Sources of Growth 1997-2012
  • Store Numbers by Location 1997-2012
  • Space by Location 1997-2012
  • Sales Density by Location 1997-2012
  • Average Store Size 1997-2012
  • Average Store Sales 1997-2012
  • Online Retail Spending
• CHAPTER 12 GLOSSARY
  • Terminology
  • Market Definition
  • Location Definitions
    • Town Centre
    • Out-of-town
    • Neighbourhood
    • Non-store Retail
  • Forecasting Methodology
  • Abbreviations
• List of Tables
  • Table 1: Food & grocery key numbers 1997, 2002, 2007& 2012
  • Table 2: Grocers non-food sales 2006, 2007 and 2012
  • Table 3: Grocers non-food market shares 2006, 2007 and 2012
  • Table 4: All food & grocery specialists sales 1997-2012
  • Table 5: Sources of growth for UK food & grocery retailers 1997-2012
  • Table 6: Food & grocery retailers total selling space 1997-2012
  • Table 7: Grocers sales 1997-2012
  • Table 8: Sources of growth for grocers 1997-2012
  • Table 9: Total selling space for grocers 1997-2012
  • Table 10: Food specialists sales 1997-2012
  • Table 11: Sources of growth for food specialists 1997-2012
  • Table 12: Total selling space for food specialists 1997-2012
  • Table 13: Off-licence and tobacconists sales 1997-2012
  • Table 14: Sources of growth for off-licences and tobacconists 1997-2012
  • Table 15: Total selling space for off-licences and tobacconists 1997-2012
  • Table 16: Food & grocery channels of distribution by retailer type 2006, 2007 and 2012
  • Table 17: Food & grocery market shares 2003-2008e
  • Table 18: Food & grocery expenditure summary 1997,2002, 2007 & 2012
  • Table 19: Food expenditure analysis 2007-2012
  • Table 20: Alcoholic drinks & soft drinks expenditure analysis 2007-2012
  • Table 21: Tobacco & non-durable household goods expenditure analysis 2007-2012
  • Table 22: Total food & grocery consumer expenditure 1997-2012
  • Table 23: Total food consumer expenditure 1997-2012
  • able 24: Bakery & cereals expenditure 1997-2012
  • Table 25: Dairy products expenditure 1997-2012
  • able 26: Fruit & vegetables expenditure 1997-2012
  • Table 27: Hot drinks expenditure 1997-2012
  • Table 28: Meat & fish expenditure 1997-2012
  • Table 29: Oils & fats expenditure 1997-2012
  • Table 30: Pets, petcare & petfood expenditure 1997-2012
  • Table 31: Sugar & sweet products expenditure 1997-2012
  • Table 32: Other food expenditure 1997-2012
  • Table 33: Alcoholic drinks expenditure 1997-2012
  • Table 34: Beer expenditure 1997-2012
  • Table 35: Spirits expenditure 1997-2012
  • Table 36: Wine expenditure 1997-2012
  • Table 37: Soft drinks expenditure 1997-2012
  • Table 38: Tobacco expenditure 1997-2012
  • Table 39: Non-durable household goods expenditure 1997-2012
  • Table 40: Economic drivers for retail 2008
  • Table 41: Measures of inflation 2008
  • Table 42: UK retailing forecasts summary 2007-2012
  • Table 43: Forecast chronology 2008-2012
  • Table 44: Total consumer retail expenditure 1997-2012
  • Table 45: Sales by location 1997-2012
  • Table 46: Total UK physical store sales & selling space 1997-2012
  • Table 47: Sources of sales growth for physical stores 1997-2012
  • Table 48: Store numbers 1997-2012
  • Table 49: Space by location 1997-2012
  • Table 50: Sales densities by location at current prices 1997-2012
  • Table 51: Average store size by location 1997-2012
  • Table 52: Average sales per store by location at current prices 1997-2012
  • Table 53: Food & Grocery market definition
• List of Figures
  • Figure 1: Food & grocery expenditure - sources of sales growth 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
  • Figure 2: Food & grocery expenditure - annual inflation (%) 1997-2012
  • Figure 3: Food & grocery expenditure share of total retail spend 1997-2012
  • Figure 4: Grocers sources of sales growth 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
  • Figure 5: Grocers share of retail spending 1997-2012
  • Figure 6: Grocers food and non-food growth 2007-2012
  • Figure 7: Grocers food/non-food sales mix 2007-2012
  • Figure 8: Grocers non-food category growth 2007-2012
  • Figure 9: Grocers non-food category growth - value terms(bn) 2012 on 2007
  • Figure 10: Food & grocery key issues 2007-2012
  • Figure 11: Similarities and differences between 1992 and the forecast period 2008-2012
  • Figure 12: Causes of food price inflation and grocer's initiatives to reduce it
  • Figure 13: Space expansion plans for Big Four grocers 2008-2012
  • Figure 14: Sales of food & grocery specialists as a% of total UK retail spending 1997-2012
  • Figure 15: Total food & grocery specialists store numbers 1997-2012
  • Figure 16: Food & grocery space growth 1997-2012
  • Figure 17: Food & grocery retailers sales densities at current prices 1997-2012
  • Figure 18: Food & grocery retailers sales densities at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012
  • Figure 19: Grocers sales as a % of total specialists food & grocery specialists sales 1997-2012
  • Figure 20: Grocers store numbers 1997-2012
  • Figure 21: Grocers space growth 1997-2012
  • Figure 22: Grocers sales densities (current prices)1997-2012
  • Figure 23: Grocers sales densities (constant 2003 prices) 1997-2012
  • Figure 24: Food specialists sales as a % of total specialists food & grocery sales 1997-2012
  • Figure 25: Food specialists store numbers 1997-2012
  • Figure 26: Food specialists space growth 1997-2012
  • Figure 27: Food specialists sales densities (current prices) 1997-2012
  • Figure 28: Food specialists sales densities (constant 2003 prices) 1997-2012
  • Figure 29: Off-licence and tobacconists sales as a % of total food & grocery specialists sales 1997-2012
  • Figure 30: Off-licence and tobacconists store numbers 1997-2012
  • Figure 31: Space growth for off-licences and tobacconists 1997-2012
  • Figure 32: Off-licence and tobacconists sales densities(current prices) 1997-2012
  • Figure 33: Off-licences and tobacconists sales densities(constant 2003 prices) 1997-2012
  • Figure 34: Food & grocery category growth prospects 2006, 2007 & 2012
  • Figure 35: Food & grocery channels of distribution 2006, 2007 & 2012
  • Figure 36: Grocers percentage point change in market share 2003-2008e
  • Figure 37: Food & grocery expenditure growth rates1997-2002, 2002-07 and 2007-12
  • Figure 38: Food & grocery spend as a % of totalretail spend 1997-2012
  • Figure 39: Food & grocery expenditure growth(constant 2003 prices) 1997-2012
  • Figure 40: Food spend as a % of food & grocery spend 1997-2012
  • Figure 41: Food expenditure growth (constant 2003prices) 1997-2012
  • Figure 42: Bakery & cereals spend as a % of food& grocery expenditure 1997-2012
  • Figure 43: Bakery & cereals expenditure growth(constant 2003 prices) 1997-2012
  • Figure 44: Dairy products spend as a % of food &grocery expenditure 1997-2012
  • Figure 45: Dairy products expenditure growth (constant2003 prices) 1997-2012
  • Figure 46: Fruit & vegetables spend as a % of food& grocery spend 1997-2012
  • Figure 47: Fruit & vegetables expenditure growth(constant 2003 prices) 1997-2012
  • Figure 48: Hot drinks expenditure as a % of food &grocery expenditure 1997-2012
  • Figure 49: Hot drinks expenditure growth (constant 2003 prices) 1997-2012
  • Figure 50: Meat & fish expenditure as a % of food& grocery expenditure 1997-2012
  • Figure 51: Meat & Fish expenditure growth (constant2003 prices) 1997-2012
  • Figure 52: Oils & fats expenditure as a % of food& grocery expenditure 1997-2012
  • Figure 53: Oils & fats expenditure growth (constant2003 prices) 1997-2012
  • Figure 54: Pets, petcare & petfood expenditure as a% of food & grocery expenditure 1997-2012
  • Figure 55: Pets, petcare & petfood expendituregrowth (constant 2003 prices) 1997-2012
  • Figure 56: Sugar & sweet products spend as a % offood & grocery spend 1997-2012
  • Figure 57: Sugar & sweet products expenditure growth(constant 2003 prices) 1997-2012
  • Figure 58: Other food expenditure as a % of food &grocery expenditure 1997-2012
  • Figure 59: Other food expenditure growth (constant 2003 prices) 1997-2012
  • Figure 60: Alcoholic drinks spend as a % of food &grocery expenditure 1997-2012
  • Figure 61: Alcoholic drinks expenditure growth (constant2003 prices) 1997-2012
  • Figure 62: Beer spend as a % of food & grocery expenditure 1997-2012
  • Figure 63: Beer expenditure growth (constant 2003 prices) 1997-2012
  • Figure 64: Spirits spend as a % of food & grocery expenditure 1997-2012
  • Figure 65: Spirits expenditure growth (constant 2003 prices) 1997-2012
  • Figure 66: Wine spend as a % of food & grocery expenditure 1997-2012
  • Figure 67: Wine expenditure growth (constant 2003 prices) 1997-2012
  • Figure 68: Soft drinks expenditure as a % of food &grocery expenditure 1997-2012
  • Figure 69: Soft drinks expenditure growth (constant 2003 prices) 1997-2012
  • Figure 70: Tobacco expenditure as a % of food &grocery expenditure 1997-2012
  • Figure 71: Tobacco expenditure growth (constant 2003 prices) 1997-2012
  • Figure 72: Non-durable household goods expenditure as a% of food & grocery expenditure 1997-2012
  • Figure 73: Non-durable household goods expenditure growth (constant 2003 prices) 1997-2012
  • Figure 74: Real gross domestic product (GDP) at constant(2003) prices 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
  • Figure 75: Inflation vs average earnings growth 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
  • Figure 76: Tax & Prices vs Average Earnings 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
  • Figure 77: Real household disposable income at constant(2003) prices 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
  • Figure 78: UK employment 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
  • Figure 79: UK unemployment 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
  • Figure 80: Inflation rates Y-o-Y 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
  • Figure 81: Sterling, dollar and euro exchange rates 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
  • Figure 82: UK average base rates 1997-2007 and forecast by quarter for 2008
  • Figure 83: UK average base rates 1997-2007 and forecastto 2012
  • Figure 84: Savings ratio 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
  • Figure 85: Growth in consumer debt 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
  • Figure 86: FTSE 100 Index 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
  • Figure 87: UK house price inflation 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
  • Figure 88: Housing Equity Withdrawal (England &Wales) 1996-2007 and forecast to 2012
  • Figure 89: Housing transactions (England & Wales)1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
  • Figure 90: Retail spending value, volume and inflation/deflation trends 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
  • Figure 91: Retail spending as percentage of total consumer spending 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
  • Figure 92: Consumer, retail and non-retail spending trends % 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
  • Figure 93: Retail sales by location 2007 and 2012
  • Figure 94: Share of turnover by location 1997, 2002,2007 & 2012
  • Figure 95: % share of store numbers by location 1997,2002, 2007 & 2012
  • Figure 96: % share of space by location 1997, 2002, 2007& 2012
  • Figure 97: Online retail spending 1997-2012
  • Figure 98: Verdict forecasting methodology 2008