Table of Contents
DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Introduction: Datamonitor' s MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring
the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 2
The MCI Index
shows how attractive a particular market is to new entrants in terms of the
competitive environment 3
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying
metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push;
Customer Pull. 3
The MCI Index measures the development of 5 US gas and
power markets 4
The MCI Index assesses markets in July 2008 and on 1st
July 2010 4
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for
the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 5
Two
different methods of overall score calculation are used to ensure full clarity
of results 5
A simple weighted average (additive) measure shows overall
competitive intensity 5
A weighted multiple (multiplicative) measure shows
overall competitive intensity 5
The MCI framework has a number of
applications for energy market players 6
Context: New York power and gas
market ranks show similar degree of competitiveness 7
The New York power
market rank remained unchanged over the forecast period 7
New York gas
rank remains constant during the forecast period 8
Power MCI: Power score
impacted by average Customer Pull score 9
Strong Market Framework
maintains the score high both at present and in future 9
Effectiveness of
Regulator (2008 - 8/10, 2010 - 8.5/10) 9
Ease of Third Party Access (2008-
8/10, 2010 - 8/10) 10
Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer (2008-
8/10, 2010 - 9/10) 10
Supplier Push remains more or less unchanged in 2010
10
Wholesale Market Fragmentation (2008 - 7.5/10, 2010 -7.5/10) 10
Retail Market Fragmentation (2008 - 7.5/10, 2010 - 8/10) 10
Traded Market
Maturity (2008 - 9/10, 2010 - 9/10) 11
Customer Pull scores remain in the
middle range 11
Access to Market Information and Assistance (2008- 5/10,
2010- 5/10) 11
Consumer Representation (2008- 5/10, 2010- 5/10) 11
Propensity to Switch (2008- 5.5/10, 2010- 6.5/10) 11
Gas MCI: Market
Framework factor are main driver of overall score 12
Market Framework
score lies at the higher range 12
Effectiveness of Regulator (2008 - 7/10,
2010 - 7.5/10) 12
Ease of Third Party Access (2008- 8/10, 2010 - 8/10)
12
Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer (2008- 9/10, 2010 - 9/10)
13
Weak Wholesale Market drags the overall Supplier Push score 13
Wholesale Market Fragmentation (2008 - 1/10, 2010 - 1.5/10) 13
Retail
Market Fragmentation (2008 - 8/10, 2010 - 8.5/10) 13
Traded Market
Maturity (2008 - 10/10, 2010 - 10/10) 13
Low switching score impacted the
overall Customer Pull score 14
Access to Market Information and Assistance
(2008- 7/10, 2010- 7.5/10) 14
Consumer Representation (2008- 4/10, 2010-
4.5/10) 14
Propensity to Switch (2008- 2.5/10, 2010- 3.5/10) 14
Outlook: Modest improvement in both gas and power market likely to be seen by
2010 15
MCI Scores 16
APPENDIX 18
Definitions 18
Ask the
analyst 23
List of Tables
Table 1: Market Competitive Intensity, New
York 2008-10 16
Table 2: MCI Additive, US 2008-2010 16
Table 3: MCI
Multiplicative, US 2008-2010 17
List of Figures
Figure 1: MCI
Assessment Scale 3
Figure 2: MCI Assessment Framework 3
Figure 3: MCI
Market Coverage 4
Figure 4: MCI Scales 5
Figure 5: MCI Applications
6
Figure 6: Asia Pacific Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2008-10 7
Figure 7: Asia-Pacific Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2008-10 8
Figure
8: Power Market Competitive Intensity Index, New York 9
Figure 9: Gas
Market Competitive Intensity, New York 12
Figure 10: Market Competitive
Intensity, New York 15
Figure 11: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness
of Regulator 18
Figure 12: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party
Access 19
Figure 13: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Balancing
and Data Transfer 19
Figure 14: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market
Fragmentation 20
Figure 15: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market
Fragmentation 20
Figure 16: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market
Maturity 21
Figure 17: Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market
Information and Assistance 21
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment,
Consumer Representation 22
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity
to Switch 22
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