Canada Wind Power Markets and Strategies, 2007-2015

Table of Contents

Section 1. Executive Summary

Section 2. Canadian Wind Power Market Environment

• 2.1 Renewable Energy: Global Policy Frameworks
• 2.2 Regulatory Incentives, Support for Canadian Wind Power
  • 2.2.1 Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Strategies in Canada' s Wind Energy Policy
  • 2.2.2 Wind Energy Incentive Mechanisms in Canada
    • 2.2.2.1 EcoEnergy Renewable Power Program
    • 2.2.2.2 Wind Power Production Incentive
    • 2.2.2.3 Provincial Government Wind Power Goals
    • 2.2.2.4 Ontario' s Standard Offer Feed-In Tariff
• 2.3 Wind Energy Resources
• 2.4 Project Permitting and Siting Environment
  • 2.4.1 Provincial Permitting Processes
  • 2.4.2 Siting Difficulties: NIMBY Activity
• 2.5 Transmission Grid Infrastructure
• 2.6 Canadian Wind Power Market Environment Ranking
  • 2.6.1 Ranking Criteria Definitions
  • 2.6.2 Ranking Results

Section 3. Canadian Wind Market Forecasts

• Forecast Methodology
• 3.1 Wind Power Capacity Market Forecasts
  • 3.1.1 Wind Power Capacity Forecasts by Province
    • 3.1.1.1 Ontario to Lead the Canadian Wind Energy Market
      • More Wind Power Required for Long-Term Generation Capacity Shortage
      • Regulatory Incentives: Large-Scale RFPs to Drive Market, Complemented by SOP Projects
      • Development Competition: Major RFP Winners Lead the Charge
      • Project Permitting: NIMBY Opposition on the Rise
      • Transmission: Growth Potentially Limited by Looming Regional Bottlenecks
      • Offshore: Market to Initiate after 2012
    • 3.1.1.2 Québec Energy Tenders Guarantee Explosive Growth
      • Overall Wind Demand Influenced by Québec' s Vast Hydropower Base
      • Regulatory Incentives: Hydro-Québec Wind RFPs to Set Market Growth Level
      • Development Competition: Market Dominated by a Few Energy Players
      • Project Permitting: Grassroots Opposition Slowly Spreading
      • Global Turbine Vendors Prepare to Supply Upcoming RFP Demand
    • 3.1.1.3 BC Energy Demand Crucial to Long-Term Canadian Wind Growth
      • British Columbia' s Hydropower Base Insufficient to Meet Growing Demand
      • Regulatory Incentives: Call for More Clean Power to Encourage Wind Growth
      • Development Competition: Local Permitting Relationships Key to Securing PPAs
      • NaiKun Likely to be Canada' s First Offshore Wind Farm by as Early as 2012
    • 3.1.1.4 Alberta' s Cap on Growth Hinders Veteran Wind Province
      • Emissions Risk and Fuel Price Volatility Bolster Wind' s Attractiveness in Alberta
      • Development Competition: Playing Field
      • Broadenseven as Opportunities Dry Up
      • Transmission: AESP Cap and Province' s Low
      • Load Capacity to Hinder Growth
    • 3.1.1.5 Manitoba to Accelerate Wind Market with 2007 Energy Tender
      • Regulatory Incentives: After 2007 RFP, Wind PPA Opportunities Stalled until 2013
      • Manitoba' s Wind Potential Restricted by Market Size and Hydro Base
      • Transmission: Energy Export Offers Best Potential for Future Wind Growth
    • 3.1.1.6 Saskatchewan Takes a Cautious Approach to Wind
      • Carbon Emissions and Fuel Price Risk will Continue to Drive Demand for Clean Energy
      • Regulatory Incentives: Limited Demand Slows
      • Large-Scale Project Development
      • SaskPower Dominance Impedes PPA Opportunities for Developer Competition
    • 3.1.1.7 New Brunswick Speeds up Wind Procurement
      • Regulatory Incentives: Government Wind Goals Speed Utility Procurement
      • Oil Price Risk Increases Wind' s Attractiveness, but
      • Nuclear Base Poses a Potential Threat
      • Transmission: Load Capacity Size and Limited
      • Export Opportunities Constrain Market
      • Development Competition: Several Wind IPPs Positioning for Limited Opportunities
    • 3.1.1.8 Additional Provinces Contribute Marginally to Wind Power Sector
      • Nova Scotia
      • Prince Edward Island
      • Newfoundland & Labrador
    • 3.1.2 Wind Power Capacity Forecasts - High-Growth
      • Scenario
    • 3.1.3 Wind Power Capacity Forecasts - Low-Growth
      • Scenario
    • 3.1.4 Trends and Forecasts in Wind Farm Size
    • 3.1.5 Canadian Offshore Wind Power Market Potential, 2007-2015
• 3.2 Wind Power Penetration Forecasts, 2000-2015

Section 4. Utility Profiles

• 4.1 Utility Portfolio Strategies in the Canadian Power Market
  • 4.1.1 Electricity Generation Portfolio Analysis
    • Existing Electricity Generation Mix
    • Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Energy Security Concerns
    • Looming Power Generation Shortfalls in Key Provinces
    • Trends in Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Province
    • Influence of Carbon Risk Exposure on Utility Procurement
• 4.2 Utility Wind Procurement Strategies in Canada
  • History of Energy Procurement in Canada
  • The “Buy-versus-Own” Utility Wind Procurement Decision
  • Evolving Reliance on Third-Party Wind IPPs in the Canadian Wind Market
  • 4.2.1 Large-Scale Utility Wind RFP Activity
  • 4.2.2 Ontario' s Standard Offer Program
• 4.3 Utility Profiles
  • 4.3.1 Hydro-Québec
    • Wind Procurement Strategy
  • 4.3.2 British Columbia Hydro
    • Wind Procurement Strategy
  • 4.3.3 Manitoba Hydro
    • Wind Procurement Strategy
  • 4.3.4 SaskPower Corporation
    • Wind Procurement Strategy
  • 4.3.5 New Brunswick Power
    • Wind Procurement Strategy
  • 4.3.6 Nova Scotia Power
    • Wind Procurement Strategy
  • 4.3.7 Newfoundland & Labrador Hydro
    • Wind Procurement Strategy
  • 4.3.8 SaskPower International
    • Strategy Summary
    • Background
    • Competitive Analysis
    • Operations
  • 4.3.9 ENMAX Energy
    • Strategy Summary
    • Background
    • Competitive Analysis
    • Operations

Section 5. Wind Power IPP and Developer Competition

• 5.1 Wind Power Project Pipelines and Development Activity
• 5.2 Wind IPP and Developer Market Share Analysis
  • 5.2.1 Wind IPP Market Share Evolution
  • 5.2.2 Wind Developer Experience Comparison
    • Competitive Shifts Significant in 2006
    • Evolving Business Models Continue to Drive Competitive
    • Positioning and Strategy
• 5.3 Canadian Energy Giants Accelerate Wind Market Maturity
  • 5.3.1 Brookfield Power
    • Strategy Summary
    • Background
    • Competitive Analysis
    • Operations
  • 5.3.2 Cartier Wind Energy
    • Strategy Summary
    • Background
    • Competitive Analysis
    • Operations
  • 5.3.3 Enbridge
    • Strategy Summary
    • Background
    • Competitive Analysis
    • Operations
  • 5.3.4 EPCOR
    • Strategy Summary
    • Background
    • Competitive Analysis
    • Operations
  • 5.3.5 Suncor Energy/Acciona Energía
    • Strategy Summary
    • Background
    • Competitive Analysis
    • Operations
  • 5.3.6 Vision Quest Windelectric
    • Strategy Summary
    • Background
    • Competitive Analysis
    • Operations
• 5.4 Wind IPP Leaders React to Evolving Market Environment
  • 5.4.1 AIM PowerGen
    • Strategy Summary
    • Background
    • Competitive Analysis
    • Operations
  • 5.4.2 AXOR Group
    • Strategy Summary
    • Background
    • Competitive Analysis
    • Operations
  • 5.4.3 Canadian Hydro Developers
    • Strategy Summary
    • Background
    • Competitive Analysis
    • Operations
  • 5.4.4 Enel North America
    • Strategy Summary
    • Background
    • Competitive Analysis
    • Operations
  • 5.4.5 Gale Force Energy/Airtricity
    • Strategy Summary
    • Background
    • Competitive Analysis
    • Operations
  • 5.4.6 GW Power Corporation
    • Strategy Summary
    • Background
    • Competitive Analysis
    • Operations
  • 5.4.7 Invenergy Canada
    • Strategy Summary
    • Background
    • Competitive Analysis
    • Operations
  • 5.4.8 Kruger Energy
    • Strategy Summary
    • Background
    • Competitive Analysis
    • Operations
  • 5.4.9 Northland Power
    • Strategy Summary
    • Background
    • Competitive Analysis
    • Operations
  • 5.4.10 SkyPower Corporation
    • Strategy Summary
    • Background
    • Competitive Analysis
    • Operations
  • 5.4.11 Ventus Energy
    • Strategy Summary
    • Background
    • Competitive Analysis
    • Operations
• 5.5 Other Developers Compete for IPP or Pure-Play Positioning
  • 5.5.1 3Ci
    • Strategy Summary
    • Background
    • Competitive Analysis
    • Operations
  • 5.5.2 Aeolis Wind Power Corporation
    • Strategy Summary
    • Background
    • Competitive Analysis
    • Operations
  • 5.5.3 Gaia Power
    • Strategy Summary
    • Background
    • Competitive Analysis
    • Operations
  • 5.5.4 Sequoia Energy
    • Strategy Summary
    • Background
    • Competitive Analysis
    • Operations
  • 5.5.5 Schneider Power
    • Strategy Summary
    • Background
    • Competitive Analysis
    • Operations
  • 5.5.6 Potential US Entrants
    • 5.5.6.1 FPL Energy
      • Strategy Summary
      • Background
      • Competitive Analysis
      • Operations
    • 5.5.6.2 PPM Energy
      • Strategy Summary
      • Background
      • Competitive Analysis
      • Operations
• 5.6 Income Funds Evolve as Niche Market Players
  • 5.6.1 Algonquin Power Income Fund
    • Strategy Summary
    • Background
    • Competitive Analysis
    • Operations
  • 5.6.2 Clean Power Income Fund
    • Strategy Summary
    • Background
    • Competitive Analysis
    • Operations
  • 5.6.3 Creststreet Capital Corporation
    • Strategy Summary
    • Background
    • Competitive Analysis
    • Operations
• 5.7 Offshore Wind Developers Inch towards Market Launch Outlook: 700 MW in Offshore Wind in Canada by 2015
  • 5.7.1 NaiKun Wind Development Inc.
    • Strategy Summary
    • Background
    • Competitive Analysis
    • Operations
  • 5.7.2 Trillium Power Energy Corporation
    • Strategy Summary
    • Background
    • Competitive Analysis
    • Operations

Section 6. Competitive Analysis of Canadian Wind Turbine Market

• 6.1 Wind Turbine Infrastructure Market Forecasts, 2007-2015
  • 6.1.1 The Growth Scenario
  • 6.1.2 Wind Turbine Infrastructure Forecasts by Province
  • 6.1.3 Trends and Forecasts in Wind Farm Size
  • 6.1.4 Wind Turbine Manufacturer Market Share
    • Vestas Traditional Domination under Pressure as
      • Turbine Market Scales
    • GE Positions for Long-Term Market Presence with US,
      • Quebec Manufacturing Base
      • Other Players Look for Foothold as Market Scales
• 6.2 Wind Turbine Manufacture Competitive Analysis
  • 6.2.1 Cost
  • 6.2.2 Product and Technology Strategies
    • Product Platforms Enable Scale and Reliability
    • Looking Forward: Efficiency Gains for Delivering Core Turbine Products
    • Cold Weather Packages a Consideration in Many Canadian Provinces
  • 6.2.3 Distribution, Production and Transportation
    • Strategies
  • 6.2.4 Supply Chain
    • Competing Business Models: Vertical Integration vs. Outsourcing
    • Component Source in the Canadian Market
    • Quebec to Potentially Fulfill Local Manufacturing Requirements

LIST OF EXHIBITS

Section 1. Executive Summary

Section 2: Canadian Wind Power Market Environment

• 2-1: Wind Power Market Evaluation Components
• 2-2: Three Primary Renewable Energy Regulatory Mechanisms
• 2-3: Renewable Energy Regulatory Mechanisms by Country
• 2-4: Change in Canada' s Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector,1990-2004
• 2-5: Canada' s Greenhouse Gas Emissions versus Kyoto Requirements
• 2-6: Announced Wind Energy Quota Targets in Canada by Province
• 2-7: EcoEnergy Renewable Power Program Details
• 2-8: Wind Power Production Incentive Program Details
• 2-9: History of WPPI Funding in the Canadian Wind Market
• 2-10: Other Renewable Energy Incentive Schemes in Canada
• 2-11: Provincial Initiatives for Renewable Energy in Canada
• 2-12: Ontario Power Authority Standard Offer Program Overview
• 2-13: Ontario Wind Resource Map with Standard Offer Program Grid Constraints
• 2-14: Classification of Developers Interested in SOP Program by Type
• 2-15: Ontario Installed Renewables Capacity vs. 2010 Goal
• 2-16: Canadian Wind Power Production Potential
• 2-17: Late-Stage Wind Projects Affected by Siting Opposition in 2006
• 2-18: Canada Transmission Grid Constraints by Province
• 2-19: Canadian Market Attractiveness: Ranking Overview

Section 3. Canadian Wind Market Forecasts

• 3-1: Wind Power Capacity Annual Market Share by Province, 2000-2015
• 3-2: Wind Power Annual Capacity Net Additions by Province, 2006-2015 (MW)
• 3-3: Wind Power Capacity Totals by Province, 2000-2015 (MW)
• 3-4: Wind Power Capacity Totals by Province, 2006-2015 (MW)
• 3-5: Ontario Annual Wind Power Growth by Incentive Type, 2006-2015
• 3-6: Québec Annual Wind Power Growth by Incentive Type, 2006-2015
• 3-7: British Columbia Annual Wind Power Growth, 2006-2015
• 3-8: Alberta Annual Wind Power Growth, 2006-2015
• 3-9: Manitoba Annual Wind Power Growth, 2006-2015
• 3-10: Saskatchewan Annual Wind Power Growth, 2006-2015
• 3-11: Atlantic Provinces' Annual Wind Power Growth, 2006-2015
• 3-12: Wind Power Capacity Net Additions by Province, 2007-2015 - High-Growth (MW)
• 3-13: Wind Power Capacity Net Additions by Province, 2007-2015 - Low-Growth (MW)
• 3-14: Base Case vs. High-Growth and Low-Growth Scenarios, 2007-2015
• 3-15: Canadian Wind Project Market Share by Project Size, 2000-2006
• 3-16: New Canadian Wind Projects by Size, 2006
• 3-17: Canadian Wind Power Projects by Size, 2006-2015
• 3-18: Canadian Wind Power Projects by Size, 2006-2015 (MW)
• 3-19: Canadian Offshore vs. Onshore Annual Wind Capacity, 2007-2015
• 3-20: Canada Wind Power Penetration Forecasts, 2000-2015
• 3-21: Canada Wind Power Penetration Forecasts by Province, 2000-2015
• 3-22: Canada Wind Power Proportion of Total Generation by Province (%), 2000-2015

Section 4. Utility Profiles

• 4-1: Canadian Electricity Generation by Province, 2004
• 4-2: 2004 Electricity Production Balance in Canada (TWh)
• 4-3: Canadian Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector, 1990 vs. 2004
• 4-4: Ranking of Canadian Provinces by GHG Emissions, 1990 vs. 2004
• 4-5: Top Four Power Plants in Canada by GHG Emissions, 2005
• 4-6: Ranking of Top Canadian Utilities and Power Generation Companies by Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 2004
• 4-7: Power Generation Asset Ownership by Canada' s Major Provincial Utilities
• 4-8: Green Power Programs in Canada, 2003
• 4-9: Status of Electric Utility Deregulation in Canada
• 4-10: Early Canadian Wind Projects Developed In-House by Crown Companies
• 4-11: Major Wind Projects Owned by Canadian Provincial Utilities or Subsidiaries
• 4-12: Major Renewable Energy RFP Opportunities from Canadian Utilities
• 4-13: Major Proposed Wind Projects Awarded PPAs under Recent Utility RFPs
• 4-17: Hydro-Québec Power Generation Asset Base, 2005
• 4-18: Wind Project PPAs Awarded by Hydro-Québec
• 4-19: BC Hydro Power Generation Asset Base, 2005
• 4-20: Wind Project PPAs Awarded by BC Hydro
• 4-21: Manitoba Hydro Power Generation Asset Base, 2005
• 4-22: Wind Project PPAs Awarded by Manitoba Hydro
• 4-23: SaskPower Generation Asset Base, 2006
• 4-24: Wind Project PPAs Awarded by SaskPower
• 4-25: New Brunswick Power Generation Asset Base, 2006
• 4-26: Wind Project PPAs Awarded by New Brunswick Power
• 4-27: Nova Scotia Power Generation Asset Base, 2006
• 4-28: Wind Project PPAs Awarded by Nova Scotia Power
• 4-29: NL Hydro Generation Asset Base, 2005
• 4-30: Wind Project PPAs Awarded by NL Hydro
• 4-31: SaskPower International Key Strategy Assets
• 4-32: ENMAX Energy Key Strategy Assets

Section 5. Wind Power IPP and Developer Competition

• 5-1: Canadian Developer Project Pipelines, Estimated as of December 2006
• 5-2: Canada Wind Farm Ownership Evolution
• 5-3: Canada Wind Market Evolution by Province
• 5-4: Evolution in Top Five Wind MW Ownership Ranking in Canada, 2004-2007 (est.)
• 5-5: Canada Top Ten Wind Ownership, 2006
• 5-6: Canada Wind Player Experience, 2006
• 5-7: Developer Market Share Breakdown, 2006
• 5-8: Top Developer Evolution through 2006
• 5-9: Canadian Developer Strategy Positioning
• 5-10: IPP Positioning within Recent Provincial RFPs
• 5-11: Major Canadian Energy Company Market Split
• 5-12: Major Canadian Energy Company Value Chain Positioning
• 5-13: PPA Contracts beyond 2006 Awarded to Major Canadian Energy Companies
• 5-14: Brookfield Power Key Strategy Assets
• 5-15: Brookfield Power Generation Asset Base
• 5-16: Brookfield Power Projects under Development
• 5-17: Cartier Wind Energy Key Strategy Assets
• 5-18: Cartier Wind Energy Winning Bids under Hydro-Québec RFP I
• 5-19: Enbridge Key Strategy Assets
• 5-20: Enbridge Wind Project Portfolio
• 5-21: EPCOR Key Strategy Assets
• 5-22: EPCOR Power Generation Asset Base
• 5-23: Suncor Energy/Acciona Energía Key Strategy Assets
• 5-24: Acciona Energía Power Generation Portfolio
• 5-25: Vision Quest Key Strategy Assets
• 5-26: Vision Quest Wind Project Portfolio
• 5-27: Vision Quest Project Pipeline
• 5-28: TransAlta Power Generation Portfolio
• 5-29: Canada Wind IPP Market Split
• 5-30: Wind IPP Value Chain Positioning
• 5-31: PPA Contracts Beyond 2006 Awarded to Canadian Wind IPPs
• 5-32: AIM PowerGen Key Strategy Assets
• 5-33: AIM PowerGen Projects under Development
• 5-34: AXOR Group Key Strategy Assets
• 5-35: AXOR Group Projects under Development
• 5-36: Canadian Hydro Developers Key Strategy Assets
• 5-37: Canadian Hydro Developers Wind Project Portfolio
• 5-38: Canadian Hydro Generation Asset Base, 2006 versus 2009
• 5-39: Enel Key Strategy Assets
• 5-40: Enel North America Wind Project Portfolio
• 5-41: Enel SpA Renewable Energy Portfolio Overview
• 5-42: Gale Force Energy Key Strategy Assets
• 5-43: Airtricity US Wind Project Portfolio
• 5-44: Gale Force Projects Under Development
• 5-45: Airtricity-Gale Force North American Pipeline Footprint
• 5-46: GW Power Key Strategy Assets
• 5-47: Invenergy Key Strategy Assets
• 5-48: Invenergy Operational Wind Project Portfolio
• 5-49: Kruger Energy Key Strategy Assets
• 5-50: Northland Power Key Strategy Assets
• 5-51: SkyPower Key Strategy Assets
• 5-52: SkyPower Wind Projects under Development
• 5-53: Ventus Energy Key Strategy Assets
• 5-54: 3Ci Key Strategy Assets
• 5-55: Aeolis Key Strategy Assets
• 5-56: Aeolis Projects under Development in British Columbia
• 5-57: Gaia Power Key Strategy Assets
• 5-58: Sequoia Energy Key Strategy Assets
• 5-59: Sequoia Energy Projects Preparing to Bid in the Manitoba Hydro 2007 RFP
• 5-60: Schneider Power Key Strategy Assets
• 5-61: Schneider Power Wind Projects Under Development
• 5-62: FPL Energy Key Strategy Assets
• 5-63: FPL Energy Wind Projects Brought On-Line in 2006
• 5-64: FPL Energy Power Generation Portfolio
• 5-65: PPM Energy Key Strategy Assets
• 5-66: PPM Energy Wind Projects Brought On-Line in 2006
• 5-67: PPM Energy Wind Asset Base and Turbine Vendor Market Share
• 5-68: Canada Income Fund Market Split
• 5-69: Canada Income Fund Value Chain Positioning
• 5-70: PPA Contracts beyond 2006 Awarded to Canadian Income Funds
• 5-71: Algonquin Power Income Fund Key Strategy Assets
• 5-72: Algonquin Power Income Fund Generation Asset Base
• 5-73: Clean Power Income Fund Key Strategy Assets
• 5-74: Creststreet Key Strategy Assets
• 5-75: Creststreet Operational Project Portfolio
• 5-76: Creststreet Wind Project Pipeline in Canada
• 5-77: Status of Canada' s Major Offshore Wind Projects
• 5-78: 2006 Timeline of Developments in Canada' s Offshore Wind Sector
• 5-79: NaiKun Key Strategy Assets
• 5-80: Trillium Key Strategy Assets

Section 6. Competitive Analysis of Canadian Wind Turbine Market

• 6-1: Onshore and Offshore Wind Power Capacity Added per Year, 2000-2015
• 6-2: Onshore and Offshore Wind Power Capacity Added per year, 2000-2015 (MW)
• 6-3: Wind Power Shipments Market Size, 2000-2015 (C$ millions)
• 6-4: Annual Wind Turbine Market Sales Potential by Province 2000-2015
• 6-5: Annual Wind Turbine Market Sales Potential by Province, 2000-2015 (MW)
• 6-6: Annual Wind Turbine Shipment Market Share by Rated Capacity, 2000-2006
• 6-7: Average Rated Capacity of Installed Wind Turbines (MW), 2000-2006
• 6-8: Wind Turbine Installations by Vendor by Product Size, 2003-2006
• 6-9: Canadian Market Share by Wind Farm Size, 2000 2006
• 6-10: Wind Turbine Shipments by Rated Capacity in Canada, 2000-2015
• 6-11: Turbine Vendor Market Share by Province, Cumulative through 2006
• 6-12: Key Factors Affecting Turbine Choice
• 6-13: Punts of Cost Advantage and Disadvantage in North America by Vendor
• 6-14: Wind Turbine Shipments to Canada by Model, 2006
• 6-15: Primary Canadian Wind Turbine Models by Vendor
• 6-16: Wind Turbine Vendor Product Platform Evolution
• 6-17: Wind Turbine Minimum Temperature Threshold with Cold Weather Package
• 6-18: Wind Turbine Specifications
• 6-19: Existing or Announced Developer-Vendor Turbine Supply Relationships
• 6-20: Wind Turbine Manufacturing Investments in North America
• 6-21: Annual Number of Wind Turbine Shipments in North America, 2000-2006
• 6-22 Turbine Supplier Component Sourcing Overview