Global Concentrated Solar Power Markets and Strategies, 2007-2020

Table of Contents

Section 1. Executive Summary

• 1.1 2006-2007 Review
• 1.2 Global CSP Energy Markets, 2007-2020
• 1.3 Competitive Analysis: CSP Project Developers and IPPs
• 1.4 Competitive Analysis: Technology and Equipment Suppliers
• 1.5 2008: A Pivotal Year

Section 2. Global Solar CSP Market Drivers

• 2.1 Overview of Global Solar Resources
  • 2.1.1 North America
  • 2.1.2 Europe
  • 2.1.3 Rest of World
• 2.2 Climate Issues
  • 2.2.1 CSP Part of EU Strategy to Achieve Kyoto Protocol Objectives
    • Kyoto Protocol and Emission Controls
    • The EU commits to longer term RES targets in Berlin summit
    • CSP role mainly seen in Southern Europe
  • 2.2.2 Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Policy Still Evolving in the US
    • National developments in US Greenhouse Gas Policy
    • State and regional activity to address climate change
• 2.3 Renewable Energy Policies in Support of CSP
  • 2.3.1 Solar CSP Incentive Mechanisms in the United States
    • Federal Investment Tax Credit
    • State Renewable Portfolio Standard Programs
  • 2.3.2 Europe Renewable Policy Incentives
    • Spanish feed-in tariff pushes solar CSP market forward
    • The European Commission and secondary market solar CSP incentives
  • 2.3.3 Solar CSP initiatives beyond the Primary Markets

Section 3. Global Solar CSP Technology Costs & Trends

• 3.1 Product Technology and Competitiveness
  • 3.1.1 Parabolic Trough Technology
    • Receiver tubes are key component in parabolic trough systems
    • Collector manufacturers look to reduce materials
    • Power block systems are a niche to traditional generation
    • Parabolic trough technology leads sector but searches for improvements
  • 3.1.2 Central Receiver Technology
    • Central receiver systems have a long history
    • A new wave of central receiver developers breaking new ground
    • Developers looking to lower heliostat costs
    • Central receivers limited so far to direct steam
  • 3.1.3 Dish Engine Technology
  • 3.1.4 Linear Fresnel Technology
    • Linear Fresnel must first prove itself at demonstration
  • 3.1.5 Solar Chimney Technology
• 3.2 Energy Storage and Integrated Solar Combine Cycle
  • 3.2.1 Thermal Storage
  • 3.2.2 Integrated Solar Combined Cycle
• 3.3 Product Costs and Trends
  • Potential Scale Economies
  • Transmission may become a bottleneck
  • Land use per megawatt raises doubts about some CSP technologies
  • Water demand, availability, and accessibility proves critical
  • Thermal storage drives up front capital costs
• 3.4 Solar CSP Power Curve
  • 3.4.1 Peak Power Supply
• 3.5 Technology comparison

Section 4. Global CSP Power Markets 2007-2020

• 4.1 CSP Project Review by Technology
  • Parabolic trough systems account for lion' s share of project development
  • Central Receiver Tower, Dish Engine, and Linear Fresnel projects grab headlines but remain unproven
  • Country specific regulations driving plant size
• 4.2 Project Review by Region
  • 4.2.1 US Project Review 2007-2010
    • California utilities look to diversify portfolios
    • US land availability increases through Bureau of Land Management
    • California Transmission Expansions
    • US Market Awaits ITC Clarity
  • 4.2.2 Spain Project Review, 2007-2010
    • Spanish market trudges to 500 MW by 2010
    • Grid system set to meet 2010 target
  • 4.2.3 Southern Europe CSP Project Review
    • Southern Europe timidly watches Iberian neighbor
  • 4.2.4 Developing Country CSP Project Review
    • ISCC projects lead development in North Africa and Middle East China, India on Solar CSP radar in Asia
• 4.3 Global CSP Market Forecast, 2007-2020
  • 4.3.1 Regional Forecast Scenarios
    • Spain' s stable and predictable market underpins global solar CSP growth
    • The US Market slowed by regulatory constraints but expected to emerge by 2010
    • Southern European countries expected to follow Spanish lead
    • Opportunities abound in the rest of the world over the long term
• 4.4 Global CSP Technology Forecast, 2007-2012
  • Parabolic trough technology bolsters market in short term
• 4.5 Primary Component Forecast, 2007-2012

Section 5. Competitive Analysis: CSP Development Strategies

• 5.1 Global Value Chain Evolution
  • 5.1.1 Industry Movement Along the Value Chain
  • 5.1.2 Technology Approaches Create Diverse Competitive Environment
    • Parabolic trough technology at the leading edge of CSP wave
  • 5.1.3 CSP Developers Compete to Build Project Pipelines
    • Technology promoters lead pipeline development in US
    • In Spain, technology promoters seek partners to compete with Iberdrola and IPPs
    • Spanish market bolstered by EPC providers
• 5.2 Competitive Analysis
  • 5.2.1 Technology Promoters on Development Frontline
    • LUZ International spawns a new generation of developers
    • Solel leads renaissance of parabolic CSP project development
    • Central receiver players in search of greater capacity
    • Abengoa Solar develops deep pipeline across all technologies
    • Dish Engine hobbled by existing pipeline
    • Linear Fresnel targets lower capital costs
  • 5.2.2 Utility and IPP Owners
    • Largest wind plant owners look to solar CSP for next stage of growth
    • Acciona buys solar CSP experience
    • Iberdrola is the elephant in the room
    • FPL stirs with recent project activity
  • 5.2.3 Pure Play Developers
    • Smaller wind developers also seeking CSP opportunities
    • Pure play solar CSP start-ups proliferate
    • Wind and renewable developers prepare for sell off
• 5.3 Utility and Large IPP Strategy Profiles
  • 5.3.1 Acciona Energía (Acciona Solar Power)
  • 5.3.2 EDP
  • 5.3.3 ENEL SpA.
  • 5.3.4 FPL Energy
  • 5.3.5 Iberdrola
• 5.4 Strategy Profiles of CSP Technology Promoters
  • 5.4.1 Abengoa Solar
  • 5.4.2 Ausra, Inc.
  • 5.4.3 BrightSource Energy, Inc.
  • 5.4.4 Ener-T Global
  • 5.4.5 Novatec Biosol
  • 5.4.6 SENER
  • 5.4.7 Solar Millennium
  • 5.4.8 Solar Power Group
  • 5.4.9 Stirling Energy Systems
• 5.5 CSP Developer Strategy Profiles
  • 5.5.1 Bethel Energy, LLC
  • 5.5.2 Epuron (Conergy AG)
  • 5.5.3 EECH Group AG (P&T Technology)
  • 5.5.4 SAMCA
  • 5.5.5 Skyfuel
  • 5.5.6 Albiasa Solar

Section 6. Competitive Analysis: CSP Power Plant Supply

• 6.1 CSP Technology Competition
  • 6.1.1 Parabolic technology promoters seek to leverage experience curve
    • Parabolic trough suppliers seek economies of scale, operating experience
    • New technology approaches on horizon
    • Linear Fresnel shoots to undercut parabolic costs
  • 6.1.2 Technology promoters Vie for gamechanging solutions
    • Abengoa leads with commercialization of tower technologies
    • Other tower technologies on way to proving grounds in US, Spain
    • Stirling' s Dish Engines Face Steep Climb
    • Is Ausra' s Technology for Real?
  • 6.1.3 ISCC and other hybrid applications gain traction
  • 6.1.4 Storage solutions
• 6.2 CSP Supply Chain Evolution
  • Collaboration marks early market stages but more competition lies ahead
  • 6.2.1 Supply chain strategies of CSP system providers
    • Solel seeks to extend activities along supply chain
    • Acciona Solar and Solar Millennium use outsourced component strategy
    • Abengoa pursues vertical integration strategy to build cost advantage in both parabolic and tower systems
    • Still in testing phase, solar tower supply chain still evolving
  • 6.2.2 CSP Component Manufacturers Strategies
    • Schott challenging Solel in production of parabolic receiver tubes
    • Flabeg Loses Market Share to New Suppliers
  • 6.2.3 Solar CSP Generation and Balance of Plant Suppliers
  • 6.2.4 EPCs Providers
    • EPC providers limited to contractor role in the US
• 6.3 Strategy Profiles: Multi-Technology Players
  • 6.3.1 Abengoa Solar
• 6.4 Strategy Profiles: Parabolic Trough System and Component Manufacturers
  • 6.4.1 Flabeg
  • 6.4.2 Schott Solar
  • 6.4.3 Solel Solar Systems
  • 6.4.4 Flagsol (Solar Millenium)
  • 6.4.5 Acciona Solar Power (formerly Solargenix)
• 6.5 Strategy Profiles: Central Receiver System and Component Suppliers
  • 6.5.1 LUZ II Ltd. (BrightSource Energy Inc.)
  • 6.5.2 SENER
  • 6.5.3 Rocketdyne (Pratt & Whitney)
• 6.6 Strategy Profiles: Dish Engine Component Suppliers
  • 6.6.1 SES (Stirling Energy Systems)
• 6.7 Strategy Profiles: Power Block and BOP Suppliers
  • 6.7.1 ABB
  • 6.7.2 Alstom
  • 6.7.3 Bertrams Heatec
  • 6.7.4 Friatec
  • 6.7.5 General Electric
  • 6.7.6 MAN Turbo
  • 6.7.7 ORMAT
  • 6.7.8 Siemens Power Generation
  • 6.7.9 Skoda
  • 6.7.10 Wartsila
• 6.8 Strategy Profiles: EPC Providers and CSP Consultants
  • 6.8.1 ACS Cobra
  • 6.8.2 Fichtner AG
  • 6.8.3 Lauren Engineering
  • 6.8.4 MAN Ferrostaal
  • 6.8.5 Sacyr Vallehermoso
  • 6.8.6 URS Corporation

LIST OF EXHIBITS

Section 1. Executive Summary

Section 2. Global Solar CSP Market Drivers

• 2-1: Global Solar Resources
• 2-2: US Available Primary Solar Market Resources
• 2-3: European Solar Resources
• 2-4: Africa, Middle East Solar Resources
• 2-5: Asia Solar Resources
• 2-6: Kyoto Protocol Evolution
• 2-7: Actual Emissions in 2002 Relative to Kyoto Targets
• 2-8: Change in US Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector, 1990-2004
• 2-9: Summary of US State and Regional Greenhouse Gas Abatement Targets
• 2-10: Renewable Power Market Evaluation Components
• 2-11: Three Primary Renewable Energy Regulatory Mechanisms
• 2-12: Renewable Energy Regulatory Mechanisms by Country
• 2-13: Federal ITC Program Details
• 2-14: Overview - US State RPS Programs
• 2-15: US Renewable Energy Pipelines - RPS States vs. Others, 2007-2011 (TW)
• 2-16: RPS Demand by State, 2005-2015 (MWh est.)
• 2-17: US State RPS Program Summary Details
• 2-18: Spain Solar CSP Program Summary Details
• 2-19: Secondary Solar CSP Markets

Section 3. Global Solar CSP Technology Costs & Trends

• 3-1: Solar CSP Industry Evolution
• 3-2: Solar CSP Installed, Project Pipeline by 2012
• 3-3: Installed Parabolic Trough Systems
• 3-4: Parabolic Trough Technology Details
• 3-5: Parabolic System Design
• 3-6: Current and Planned Parabolic Trough Component Suppliers
• 3-7: Current Parabolic Trough Component Suppliers
• 3-8: Central Receiver Plant Diagram
• 3-9: Central Receiver System Developers
• 3-10: Central Receiver Technology Details
• 3-12: Dish Engine Technology Details
• 3-13: Dish Engine Technology Next Generation
• 3-14: Linear Fresnel Technology Details
• 3-15: Linear Fresnel Next Generation
• 3-16: Solar Chimney Technology Details
• 3-17: CSP Projects with Thermal Storage
• 3-18: ISCC Plant Design
• 3-19: ISCC Project Pipeline
• 3-20: Solar CSP Cost Curves, Parabolic Trough without Storage
• 3-21: CSP Cost Comparison to Other Renewables
• 3-22: CSP Technology Footprints
• 3-23: Solar CSP Capital Cost Comparison of Existing and Planned Facilities
• 3-24: Peak Power Costs, California, SP15
• 3-25: Hourly Peak Load With and Without Storage
• 3-26: Technology Comparison

Section 4. Global CSP Power Markets 2007-2020

• 4-1: Installed and Planned Solar CSP Technologies
• 4-2: CSP Project Pipeline by Technology
• 4-3: CSP Project Plant Size by Year and Technology
• 4-4: Solar CSP Market Share by Region
• 4-5: Projects Planned for Installation 2007-2008
• 4-6: Western US Utilities Signing PPAs
• 4-7: BLM Applications Through November 2007
• 4-8: Current BLM Applications and Transmission Corridors
• 4-9: Southern California Transmission Projects
• 4-10: Spanish Pipeline Breakdown by State
• 4-11: Announced Projects by Province
• 4-12: Spanish Electricity System
• 4-13: Announced Pipelines Outside of Spain and the US
• 4-14: European-Middle East-North African Grid Connections
• 4-14: Global MW Added Growth Scenario Comparison, 2007-2020
• 4-15: Global MW Installed Growth Scenario Comparison, 2007-2020
• 4-16: Global High-Growth Scenario Forecast, 2007-2020 (MW)
• 4-17: Solar CSP Technology Forecast 2007-2012
• 4-18: Parabolic Trough Component Annual Additions, 2007-2012
• 4-19: Component Forecast Assumption Data
• 4-20: Central Receiver Heliostat Forecasts, 2007-2012

Section 5. Competitive Analysis: CSP Development Strategies

• 5-1: CSP Development Continuum
• 5-2: Solar CSP Project Value Chain
• 5-3: Leading Developers' Global Focus
• 5-4: Solar CSP Development Curve
• 5-5: US vs. Spanish Project Pipeline by 2012
• 5-6: CSP Plant Ownership 2007-2008 by Developer (net MW owned)
• 5-8: Global CSP Pipelines by Developer, November 2007
• 5-9: BLM Application pipeline
• 5-10: Solar CSP Deal Flow
• 5-11: LUZ International Spin-offs and Development Pipelines
• 5-12: Parabolic Technology Market Share by Developer, 2007-2012
• 5-13: Parabolic Trough Project Comparison
• 5-14: Technology Promoters' Global Diversification
• 5-15: Central Receiver Technology Differentiators
• 5-16: Stirling Energy Systems PPA Details
• 5-17: Wind IPPs and Utilities Targeting Solar CSP (End of Year 2006)
• 5-18: Acciona Solar and Solargenix Acquisition Details
• 5-19: Iberdola Renewable Energy Ranking 2006
• 5-20: Acciona Project Pipeline
• 5-21: EDP Project Pipeline
• 5-22: Endesa Project Pipeline
• 5-23: ENEL, SpA Pipeline
• 5-24: FPL Energy Project Pipeline
• 5-25: Iberdrola Project Pipeline
• 5-26: Abengoa Solar Project Pipeline
• 5-27: Ausra Project Pipeline
• 5-28: BrightSource Energy Project Pipeline
• 5-29: Ener-T Global Project Pipeline
• 5-30: SENER Project Pipeline
• 5-31: Solar Millennium Project Pipeline
• 5-32: Solar Power Group Project Pipeline
• 5-33: Stirling Energy Systems Project Pipeline
• 5-34: Bethel Energy Project Pipeline
• 5-35: Epuron Project Pipeline
• 5-36: EECH, AG Project Pipeline
• 5-37: SAMCA Project Pipeline
• 5-38: SkyFuel Project Pipeline

Section 6. Competitive Analysis: CSP Power Plant Supply

• 6-1: Installed and Planned Solar CSP Technologies
• 6-2: Installed and Planned Solar CSP Technologies
• 6-3: Parabolic Trough Collector Overview
• 6-4: Parabolic Trough Learning Curve Continuum
• 6-5: Parabolic Trough Technology Shifts
• 6-6: CSP Technology Comparison
• 6-7: Ausra' s Projected Capital Costs Versus Parabolic Trough in 2010
• 6-8: SES Manufacturing Demand
• 6-9: Announced Parabolic Trough Supply Chain Agreements
• 6-10: Announced Parabolic Trough Supply Chain Agreements
• 6-11: Specialized Component Manufacturing Locations
• 6-12: Schott and Solel Receiver Tube Manufacturing
• 6-13: Solel Receiver Tube Deals
• 6-14: EPC-Technology Promoter Partnerships