Global IGCC Power Markets and Strategies, 2007-2030

Table of Contents

Section 1. Executive Summary

Section 2. IGCC Power Market Environment

• 2.1 Global Coal Resources Drive IGCC Development Trends
  • Coal Quality, Availability Creates Opportunities and Challenges for IGCC
• 2.2. Carbon Policy and Climate Issues
  • 2.2.1 Kyoto Protocol Set to Begin
  • 2.2.2 European Union Trading Scheme Emerges into Adolescence
  • 2.2.3 Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Policy in the US
    • National Developments in US Greenhouse Gas Policy
    • US State and Regional Activity to Address Climate Change
  • 2.2.4 Carbon Policies Emerge in the Rest of the World
    • Japan Pilots Domestic Cap-and-Trade, While Active in International CDM Market
    • Regional Initiatives Lead the Way in Canada, as National Policy Backtracks on Kyoto
    • New Zealand Nixes Tax, Pursues Carbon Trading
    • Australia Proposes Domestic Cap-and-Trade
    • Threshold Countries Prepare for Possible Carbon Obligations Post-2012
• 2.3 IGCC Support Policies and Incentives
  • 2.3.1 US Clean Coal Strategy Targets IGCC
    • CCPI Drives Commercial Scale-up and Development of Novel IGCC Concepts in the US
    • US States Offer IGCC Incentives
  • 2.3.2 Outside of the US, Funding Targets Carbon Capture
    • In Europe ZEP-TP Seeks to Spur National Initiatives and Remove Obstacles to CCS
    • UK Program Attracting IGCC for CCS Demonstration
    • Australia Clean Coal Policy Pushes Domestic IGCC Technology
    • Asian Government Support for IGCC Focuses on Local Technology Objectives
• 2.4 Project Permitting Environment for IGCC
  • NGOs approach IGCC from Varied Positions
• 2.5 Global IGCC Power Market Environment Ranking
  • 2.5.1 Ranking Criteria Definitions
    • Fuel Resource
    • Regulatory Incentives
    • Permitting and Siting Environment
    • Power Market Fundamentals
    • Proximity to CO2 Sequestration
  • 2.5.2 Ranking Results
    • Tier 1: US, Australia Initiate Transition to IGCC Through Demonstration
    • Tier 2: Longer Term Market Opportunities Await CCS
    • Tier 3: Change in Market Conditions Could Drive Future Market Opportunities

Section 3. Global Technology and Cost Hurdles

• 3.1 Background and Overview of IGCC
  • Experience of IGCC in Operation
  • Status of Coal-based IGCC
• 3.2 Product and Technology Competitiveness
  • 3.2.1 The Efficiency of IGCC
  • 3.2.2 Emissions Performance of IGCC
  • 3.2.3 Polygeneration strategies with IGCC
  • 3.2.4 Carbon Capture Issues for IGCC
    • Emerging Technology Competition for Carbon Capture Applications
    • Oxyfuel Technology
    • Post-Combustion Capture Technology
• 3.3 Gasification Technology Comparisons
  • Commercial Status of Competing Gasifiers for IGCC
  • Key Technology Attributes Differentiate Gasification Suppliers in the Marketplace
  • IGCC Seeks to Capitalize on Gasification Industry Scaling
• 3.4 Gas Turbine Technology Comparisons
• 3.5 Sequestration Challenges and Opportunities
  • 3.5.1 Sequestration Applications
  • 3.5.2 Sequestration Experience to Date
  • 3.5.3 Regional Storage Potential
  • 3.5.4 EOR Drives Some Early Stage CCS Activity
  • 3.5.5 Regulatory Issues Come to Forefront as
    • CCS Interest Grows
• 3.6 IGCC Power Production Costs
• 3.6.1 IGCC Cost Competitiveness With Other Options
• 3.6.2 Capital Costs Skyrocketing, Damaging Near-Term Prospects
  • Capital Cost Breakdown

Section 4. Global IGCC Power Markets, 2000-2030

• 4.1 Global IGCC Capacity Market Forecasts Forecast Methodology
  • 4.1.1 EER' s Low Carbon Generation Scenario
  • 4.1.2 Conservative Market Forecast
  • 4.1.3 Optimistic Market Forecast
• 4.2 Status of Global IGCC Project Pipeline
  • 4.2.1 Status of IGCC projects with Carbon Capture and Sequestration
    • Over half of IGCC projects tied directly to CCS solutions
    • IGCC Projects Compete with other Carbon Capture Approaches
  • 4.2.2 Status of ' Capture Ready' IGCC Projects
  • 4.2.3 Abandoned IGCC Power Projects
• 4.3 IGCC Country Project Review
  • 4.3.1 IGCC Markets in North America
    • Regional Market Trends Shape US IGCC Activity
    • Western Regions Lead Canada in IGCC
  • 4.3.2 IGCC Project Development in Europe
    • Auspicious UK Pipeline Undermined by Government CCS Agenda
    • Germany Turning to More Efficient Combustion
    • Existing Experience Leads to Further Development in the Netherlands
    • Technology Suppliers Position in Eastern Europe
    • Southern Europe Adopts Wait and See Approach
  • 4.3.3 IGCC Project Development in the Asia
    • Pacific Region
    • Australia Drives Carbon Capture Activity in Asia Pacific
    • IGCC Interest in China Awakens in 2007
    • India Initiates Activity
    • Japan Supports Demonstration for Technology Export
    • South Korea Wades Out for Expression of Interest
  • 4.3.4 IGCC Project Development in the Rest of the World
    • South Africa Examines Underground Gasification
    • Privitization in Russia Places More Emphasis on Coal
    • Opportunities in the Middle East

Section 5. Competitive Analysis of IGCC Project Development

• 5.1 IGCC Power Project Development Trends
  • 5.1.1 2007: A Transitional Year for IGCC
  • 5.1.2 IGCC Project Development Rankings
  • 5.1.3 Companies Hedging Carbon Capture Technology Bets
• 5.2 Utility Generation Strategies and IGCC
  • 5.2.1 Coal Dominant Utilities are Pioneers in the US
  • 5.2.2 European Utilities Favor Combustion
  • 5.2.3 Utility Strategies and IGCC in the Rest of World
• 5.3 IPPs and Specialized Developers Target IGCC
  • Institutional Investor-Type IPPs Focus Clean Investment Strategies on IGCC
  • Global Energy Seeks to Internalize Risk for Cost Advantage
• 5.4 Oil Companies Seek Newfound Power
  • Synergies with IGCC
    • Oil Companies Target IGCC to Balance Upstream Strategies
    • EOR Focused Companies Reposition Along the Value Chain for CCS
    • Petcoke as a Captive Fuel Source Drives IGCC Involvement
    • Coal Producers Target IGCC to Secure Long Term Fuel Potential
• 5.5 IPP Profiles
  • 5.5.1 Babcock & Brown
  • 5.5.2 Edison Mission
  • 5.5.3 ERORA
  • 5.5.4 Excelsior Energy
  • 5.5.5 Global Energy
  • 5.5.6 BP Alternative Energy
  • 5.5.7 M&M Energy
  • 5.5.8 NRG
  • 5.5.9 Powerfuel
  • 5.5.10 Southwestern Power Group
  • 5.5.11 Summit Energy
  • 5.5.12 Tenaska
• 5.6 Utilities
  • 5.6.1 AEP
  • 5.6.2 Centrica
  • 5.6.3 Datang Power
  • 5.6.4 Duke
  • 5.6.5 Energy Northwest
  • 5.6.6 E.ON
  • 5.6.7 Mid American
  • 5.6.8 NTPC
  • 5.6.9 RWE
  • 5.6.10 Nuon
  • 5.6.11 Southern Company
  • 5.6.12 Southern California Edison
  • 5.6.13 Tampa Electric
  • 5.6.14 Xcel Eerngy

Section 6. Competitive Analysis of IGCC Power Plant Supply

• 6.1 IGCC Technology Supply
  • 6.1.1 Gas Turbine Vendors Seek Vertical Integration for Advantage
  • 6.1.2 Oil Companies Diversify Gasification Supply for Coal Applications
  • 6.1.3 New Technology Entrants
    • Local Coal Resources Drives Innovation
    • Other Companies Await Clearer Market Environment
    • Pratt and Whitney Target Game Changing Technology
• 6.2 IGCC Power Plant Market Share Analysis
  • GE Establishes Early Leadership
  • Siemens Ramps Up Technology Development
  • Mitsubishi Power Systems Takes Demonstration Experience to the US
  • Existing References Pave the Way for ConocoPhillips, Shell
  • New Entrants Seek to Get Technologies Off the Ground
  • 6.2.1 IGCC Supplier Market Share by Region
• 6.3 IGCC Product and Technology Analysis
  • 6.3.1 Value Chain Positioning
  • 6.3.2 Supply Chain Analysis
• 6.4 IGCC Power Plant Providers
  • 6.4.1 GE Energy
  • 6.4.2 Siemens
  • 6.4.3 Mitsubishi Heavy Industries
• 6.5 Gasification Vendors
  • 6.5.1 ConocoPhillips
  • 6.5.2 Shell
  • 6.5.3 BHEL
  • 6.5.4 Pratt & Whitney
  • 6.5.5 HRL Limited
  • 6.5.6 KBR
  • 6.5.7 Synthesis Energy Systems

LIST OF EXHIBITS

Section 1. Executive Summary

Section 2. IGCC Power Market Environment

• 2-1: Summary of Key IGCC Accelerators and Decelerators
• 2-2: IGCC Market Potential Evaluation Components
• 2-3: Coal' s Contribution to National Power Generation
• 2-4: Overview of Global Coal Reserves
• 2-5: Coal Price Variability Relative to Natural Gas and Crude Oil
• 2-6: Features of Regional Coal Production Markets
• 2-7: Global Coal Characteristics and Their Implications for IGCC
• 2-8: Three Primary Carbon Policy Mechanisms Emerge Globally
• 2-9: Countries Impacted by Kyoto
• 2-10: Proposed CDM Methodology with a Sequestration Component
• 2-11: Carbon Reduction of Proposed Climate Change Bills in the US Congress
• 2-12: Summary of US State and Regional Greenhouse Gas Abatement Targets
• 2-13: Federal US ITC Program Details
• 2-14: Evolution of US DOE Clean Coal Funding Initiatives
• 2-15: US IGCC Projects Awarded Investment Tax Credits or Federal Grant Funding
• 2-16: US State Policies Supportive of IGCC
• 2-17: Projects Positioned to Seek CCS Demonstration Funding in the UK
• 2-18: Projects Funded By Australia' s Low Emissions Technology Demonstration Fund
• 2-19: Examples of Global IGCC Projects that Have Stalled During Planning
• 2-20: Significant Costs and Timeline of Upfront Project Development for IGCC
• 2-21: Position of Leading Environmental Organizations on IGCC
• 2-22: Global IGCC Market Attractiveness: Ranking Overview

Section 3. IGCC Power Market Environment

• 3-1: IGCC Technology Attributes
• 3-2: Evolution of Installed IGCC Capacity Globally by Fuel Type
• 3-3: IGCC Projects That Have Operated on a Solid Fuel
• 3-4: Demonstrated Efficiency of IGCC Technology for Use on Coal
• 3-5: Comparison of Fossil Fuel Power Plant Emissions
• 3-6: Prominent Polygeneration Projects Worldwide Source: Emerging Energy Research
• 3-7: IGCC Projects Under Development Intending to Capture CO2
• 3-8: Environmental Impact of IGCC Compared with Alternatives
• 3-9: Attributes of Technologies Promoted for Carbon Capture and Sequestration
• 3-10: Risk Profile Comparison of Carbon Capture Technologies
• 3-11: Oxyfuel Combustion Projects Worldwide
• 3-12: Post-Combustion Technologies Under Development
• 3-13: Description of Leading Gasification Technologies for IGCC
• 3-14: Commercial Status of Coal Gasifiers Promoted for IGCC
• 3-15: IGCC as a Component of Growth in Global Gasification Industry
• 3-16: Gas Turbine experience with Gasifier Syngas, 2006
• 3-17: Carbon Capture and Sequestration Value Chain
• 3-18: The Commercial Potential of Carbon Sequestration Applications
• 3-20: Global Overview of Operating and Planned Sequestration Sites
• 3-21: Regional Assessment of Storage Potential
• 3-22: Economic vs. Environmental Comparison of Competing Generation Options
• 3-23: Electricity Cost Comparison, $ / MWh
• 3-24: Electricity Cost Comparison of Fossil-Fired Generation, $ / MWh
• 3-25: IGCC Capital Cost Trends
• 3-26: Capital Cost Breakdown of IGCC

Section 4. Global IGCC Power Markets, 2000-2030

• 4-1: Regional Factors Impacting IGCC' s Growth Prospects
• 4-2: IGCC Forecast in the Global Energy Mix
• 4-3: EER Conservative IGCC Power Capacity Forecast by Region, 2007-2030 (MW)
• 4-4: EER Optimistic IGCC Power Capacity Forecast by Region, 2007-2030 (MW)
• 4-5: Conservative vs. Optimistic Forecast Scenarios, 2007-2030 (MW)
• 4-6: Status of Global IGCC Project Pipeline
• 4-7: Carbon Capture Status of Global IGCC Pipeline
• 4-8: Global CCS Project Pipeline by Technology Type
• 4-9: Global IGCC Pipeline by Country
• 4-10: Pipeline of US Projects
• 4-11: Regional Market Trends Shape US IGCC Activity
• 4-12: European Pipeline of IGCC and Other Carbon Capture Projects
• 4-13: Asia Pacific IGCC Pipeline

Section 5. Competitive Analysis of IGCC Project Development

• 5-1: Strategic Drivers Influencing the Adoption of IGCC
• 5-2: Market Share of Projects in the Pipeline by Company Type
• 5-3: IGCC Project Development Ownership Ranking, 2007
• 5-4: IGCC as Component of Clean Power Generation Strategies
• 5-5: Summary of CCS Project Investment Activity
• 5-6: Utility Involvement of IGCC Projects
• 5-7: US Utility Involvement in IGCC
• 5-8: Competitive Positioning of US and EU Utilities with Respect to CCS
• 5-9: IGCC IPP & Developer Strategy Positioning
• 5-10: IPP IGCC Development Value Chain
• 5-11: Value Chain Involvement of Key CO2-EOR Players
• 5-12: CO2 Pipeline Ownership Market Share and CO2 Supply Market Share, 2007
• 5-13: Babcock and Brown Acquisition of Celanese Chemcials Facility
• 5-14: Edison Mission IGCC Activity
• 5-15: ERORA IGCC Activity
• 5-16: Excelsior IGCC Project Activity
• 5-17: Global Energy IGCC Activity
• 5-18: BP Alternative Energy IGCC Activity
• 5-19: M&M Energy IGCC Activity
• 5-20: NRG IGCC Activity
• 5-21: Powerfuel IGCC Activity
• 5-22: Southwestern Power Group IGCC Project Activity
• 5-23: Summit Power Key IGCC Activity
• 5-24: Tenaska IGCC Activity
• 5-25: AEP IGCC Activity
• 5-26: Centrica IGCC Activity
• 5-27: Datang IGCC Activity
• 5-28: Duke IGCC Activity
• 5-29: Energy Northwest IGCC Activity
• 5-30: E.ON IGCC Activity
• 5-31: Mid American IGCC Activity
• 5-32: NTPC IGCC Activity
• 5-33: RWE IGCC Activity
• 5-34: Nuon IGCC Activity
• 5-35: Southern Company IGCC Activity
• 5-36: Southern California Edison IGC Activity
• 5-37: Tampa Electric IGCC Activity
• 5-38: Xcel IGCC Activity

Section 6. Competitive Analysis of IGCC Power Plant Supply

• 6-1: Overview of Gasification Technology Suppliers by Company type
• 6-2: Stage of Commercial Development of Leading Gasification Technologies
• 6-3: Carbon Capture Technology Positioning
• 6-4: Carbon Capture Technology Positioning
• 6-5: Indicative Technology Vendor - EPC Relationships
• 6-6: Attributes of the PWR Compact Gasifier
• 6-7: Selection of Gasification and Gas Turbine Technology by Company type
• 6-8: Technology Selection by Region
• 6-9: IGCC Supplier Positioning along the Value Chain
• 6-10: IGCC Supply Chain Involvement
• 6-11: GE Energy IGCC Projects
• 6-12: Siemens IGCC Projects
• 6-13: Mitsubishi IGCC Projects
• 6-14: ConocoPhillips IGCC Projects
• 6-15: Shell IGCC Projects
• 6-16: BHEL IGCC Projects
• 6-17: Pratt & Whitney Gasification Projects
• 6-18: HRL Gasification Projects
• 6-19: KBR Gasification Projects
• 6-20: Synthesis Energy Systems Gasification Projects
• 6-21: U-GAS Gasification Projects