Diesels, hybrids to gain market share
While overall sales of light vehicles in the US are forecast to grow less than one percent annually through 2009, there will be a significant shift in the product mix of powerplants used as diesel engines and hybrid-electric powerplants begin to take significant share away from spark ignition internal combustion engines. The fuel price spike that occurred in 2005 ignited new interest in fuelefficient powertrain technologies, which has boosted demand for hybridelectric vehicles and, to an extent, for diesel engines. Fuel cells remain a more distance promise due to technology and infrastructure challenges.
Spark ignition ICEs to remain dominant
Nevertheless, despite rapid advances in alternative powerplant types, the conventional spark ignition internal combustion engine (ICE) will remain the dominant powerplant technology in the US throughout the forecast period. The spark ignition ICEs continued ability to cost-effectively meet tighter emission standards yet provide high levels of power and driveability will ensure its position in the marketplace. Even so, continued consumer demands in terms of fuel economy and vehicle emissions are causing automakers to seek out efficient new technologies.
Diesels ICE shows promise in the US
The diesel ICE has recently emerged as a legitimate substitute for the spark ignition engine in the US light vehicle market both from a market and a regulatory perspective. The tremendous success of the technology in Europe, where it is on the verge of capturing 50 percent of the total automobile market, amply demonstrates the advances made in light diesel direct injection technology in the past decade. Growth will be robust, due in part to the introduction of low-sulfur fuels (scheduled for late 2006), which will make meeting new emission standards more feasible for light vehicles.
Hybrid-electric ICEs to accelerate
The market for hybridelectric ICEs will expand significantly from a relatively small base in 2001. Hybrid-electric ICEs feature adapted internal combustion engines in tandem with electric motors to increase fuel efficiency and reduce emissions while providing performance similar to a conventional spark ignition engine. Two types of hybrids are currently being developed: full hybrids, with large high voltage battery packs such as those already introduced by Toyota and Honda; and mild hybrids, which provide less electric power to operate the vehicle but can be more easily integrated into existing ICE drivetrains and are more cost effective. Cost disparities between HEVs and conventional light vehicles are expected to decline significantly as production volumes increase.
Fuel cells show promise in the long-term
Fuel cell-powered vehicles will emerge slowly in the next decade. Significant but apparently solvable vehicle-related engineering challenges as well as daunting fueling infrastructure requirements will limit commercialization. The industry is currently experiencing a backlash to the just around the corner" coverage that has surrounded the automotive fuel cell in recent years, but the longer term, the technology continues to show promise as an ICE replacement.
Study coverage
Details on these and other key findings are available Hybrids & Competing Automotive Powerplants, the new Freedonia industry study, which provides historical US demand data (1994, 1999, 2004) plus forecasts through 2009 and 2014 by powerplant type and by market. The study also considers market environment trends and indicators, discusses global supply and demand, reviews technology, evaluates company market share and profiles 35 leading competitors in the fledgling US industry.
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