Abstract
US lubricants demand to accelerate through 2010
US demand for lubricants is forecast to grow less than one percent per year to
2.8 billion gallons in 2010, outpacing the gains seen during the decade from
1995 to 2005, but still significantly lagging growth in GDP. Advances will
largely be a result of increased manufacturing activity, fueling demand for
industrial lubricants such as hydraulic fluids, process oils and greases.
However, volume gains will be restricted considerably by trends toward
longer-lasting lubricants, extending oil drain intervals and reducing overall
lubricant demand.
Higher-end base oils to gain market share
Significant shifts in demand for lubricating base oils is expected, as higher
quality basestocks such as Group II, II+ and III petroleum oils, as well as
synthetic types, are expected to increase their share of the market at the
expense of Group I and naphthenic base oils. Better quality base oils are
necessary for lubricants to comply with new industry standards, including
ILSAC GF-5 motor oils, API CJ-4 diesel engine oils, and DEXRON VI and MERCON V
transmission fluids. Environmental concerns will also drive demand for
rerefined basestocks and products derived from bio-based sources such as
soybean oils.
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