Abstract
Introduction
The world' s oceans extend to an area of around xxxmillion km2 (circa xx% of
the earth' s surface) with an average depth of x,xxxm ÀÛÂÃoe The perfect
environment for unmanned solutions!
In the last 20 years, leading Navies have transitioned from a blue-water
environment where the development of deep ocean unmanned undersea vehicles
(UUVs) was emphasized, to a period where their major applications are in
shallow/denied littoral areas, launched from off-shore platforms, to perform
missions like mine warfare and Intelligence Surveillance & Reconnaissance
(ISR).
At the same time, governments in Europe, North America and Asia now realise
the changing nature of threats and the need for a holistic approach to defence
and homeland security, including coastline and shallow-water protection. In
this context, Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) greatly extend the reach
and capability of Naval forces while substantially reducing casualties:
“They promise increased access to areas the enemy would deny, and
promise the means of denying areas to our enemies”.
The current estimated AUV market demand tends to be “almost”
proportional to the active naval platforms in each region. The main drivers of
this market include France, Germany, Italy, Norway, the UK, the US, Australia,
South Korea, China, Japan and Taiwan. In revenues terms, the global Military
AUV procurement and Research, Development, Test and Evaluation (RDTE) funding
in 2005 amounted to USD$xxx million, with North America representing around
xx% of the global AUV procurement & RDTE funding (circa USDxxx.x million).
Both industry and defence stakeholders, expect a strong growth in the market
after 2008, with the further integration of AUVs in routine missions and the
introduction of miniaturized sensors and better communication solutions in AUV
systems. Nevertheless, Frost & Sullivan does not expect the market to grow
dramatically in revenue terms over the next ten years, with a Compound Annual
Growth Rate (CAGR) of just around x.x%, bringing the expected investment to
around USD$xxx million - largely driven by the demand for light-weight and
man-portable AUVs
Research Methodology
Over the last 30 years, unmanned underwater vehicles (UUV) have evolved from
unreliable prototypes developed for research and military purposes into
essential everyday tools. The aim of this research is to provide a qualitative
and quantitative assessment of Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUV) in
military and homeland security markets over the next ten years. This research
does not look into other UUVs such as tethered or remotely operated vehicles
(ROVs).
For research projects, Frost & Sullivan utilizes tried and tested market
intelligence techniques to provide structure to the research and an easy
format to compare results across different segments and over time. This
requires a large number of discussions and interviews with key stakeholders to
constantly evaluate and validate data and assumptions.
The techniques include:
- Stakeholders' Perception - Delphi method: The Delphi method is
based on a structured process for collecting and distilling knowledge from a
group of experts by means of a series of questionnaires interspersed with
controlled opinion feedback.
- Stakeholders' Input Cross-Tabulations: Cross-tabulations provide a
means of a deeper analysis into the data to examine relationships that might
not be readily apparent when analyzing the total response. These are also used
when systematic relationships between respondent characteristics or some other
variable are discovered.
- Trends correlation: Trends correlations are used to measure and
understand the strength of x.y.z. trends in relation to α.β.γ
variables. These analysis aim to model expenditure forecasting data with a
number of trends (directly related or not).
- Market potential Vs Maximum demand: Data in this research project
is primarily extrapolated and measured from the demand side of the market.
Whilst market potential gives us the theoretical measurement of the market,
maximum demand enables us to forecast a more realistic procurement intentions.
The research methodology is characterized by its unique combination of
‘bottom-up' and ‘top-down' approaches to platforms, systems,
missions and capability. By taking this bottom-up approach to the analyses,
based on current maritime operations and homeland security issues, we are able
to understand nations and stakeholders' mission requirements and objective
force structure to arrive at a forecast for future Autonomous Underwater
Vehicle (AUV) systems procurement.
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