Abstract
This IDC study analyzes key market drivers and inhibitors for wireless displacement of wireline
access lines in the United States. In particular, this study details displacement rates for primary
and nonprimary residential and business access lines. IDC forecasts show that by 2009, more than 36
million wireline access lines will have been displaced since 2001, and nearly 10% of U.S. households
will be completely wireless.
This study provides essential guidance on the immediate and long-term impact of displacement in
key telecom market segments. As access line attrition rates continue to grow, U.S. wireline carriers
will be driven to reinvent their business model from one based on collecting network access rent
(metered by the distance and minutes of use) to one based on providing seamless choice and control
of when, where, and how customers communicated, regardless of the network access medium.
"The bedrock of the U.S. telecommunications industry is cracking under tremendous
competitive pressures. IDC forecast the rate of wireless displacement of wireline access lines will
continue at a 2.5% compound annual growth rate through 2009." This means that within the next
five years, we expect wireline carriers to be more hungry than ever to transform their business
models and create services and applications that will attract and retain customers. - Wu Zhou,
senior research analyst, IDC Worldwide Telecommunications Services
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