Abstract
This IDC study examines the U.S. mobile services market and focuses
specifically on the U.S. consumer mobile services market, both of which are
expected to experience steady but declining growth in both subscribers and
services revenue over the course of the forecast period. The U.S. mobile
subscriber market is about to enter its mature phase, when market penetration
reaches saturation levels and subscriber growth slows sharply. While growth in
data services will remain a key revenue driver - in particular to offset
continued voice ARPU erosion - annual data revenue growth is set to slow
sharply beginning in the 2009-2012 time frame. With no new major data service
opportunities readily apparent, a continued lack of content interoperability,
and generally poor customer experiences with many data services, the forecast
decline of annual data services revenue growth at the end of the forecast
period will have a substantial impact on the U.S. mobile services industry.
"The days of easy revenue growth are drawing to a close as the U.S. mobile
services industry enters a maturing phase, with voice ARPU steadily eroding and
no major data service revenue opportunities readily apparent over the next
several years," notes Scott Ellison, vice president of Wireless and Mobile
Communications at IDC. "This means that beyond competing with one another, the
key players in the mobile ecosystem need to work together to create better
customer experiences with mobile data services and create new service
categories in order to grow the revenue pie and mitigate against the natural
tendency to compete harder for the revenue pie that exists today," he adds.
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