2Q.08 Latin America Handset Vendor and Technology Forecasts

IEMR' s Latin America Handset Vendor and Technology Forecast provides historical and forecasted (2004 - 2011) information on handset shipments by unit shipments, air interface, generation, and form factor in the Latin America market. Vendors with complete coverage include: Nokia, Motorola, Samsung, LG, and Sony-Ericsson.

• Unit shipments into Latin America are expected to rise from 135 million units in 2008 to 152 million units in 2011.
• In Latin America, the proportion of converged mobile devices in total handset shipments is much lower than the world average. We expect this proportion in Latin America to be only 3% in 2011, in comparison to the world average of 16% in 2011.
• 3G handset shipments are increasing steadily in Latin America. Over the forecast period of 2008 - 2011, we expect 3G handset shipment to more than triple from 6.7 million to 21.3 million. We forecast that, by 2011, 3G handsets will account for 14% of total handset shipments in this region, compared to only 5% in 2008.
• Nokia and Motorola are leaders in Latin America. Nokia continues to be the leader in this regional handset market. In 2006, we estimate that Nokia shipped 38.6 million handsets; this implies a market share of 32.3%. Motorola' s market share in Latin America was 28.4% in 2006.

IEMR' s Handset Forecasts are based on our proprietary, vendor-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular region; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.