LCD Market: Technology Directions and Market Analysis

Abstract

Chemicals and Materials for Sub-0.5 Micron IC Manufacturing

Chemicals and materials are used in every processing step in the fabrication of silicon and gallium arsenide integrated circuits. Technological advances in Si and GaAs ICs have resulted in more stringent requirements in the purity and quality of processing chemicals and materials for cleaning, etching, and deposition. As linewidths decrease, the level and size of contaminants in both chemicals and the manufacturing cleanroom become increasingly important as it directly impacts device yield. Each new generation of IC processing requires higher levels of purity.

The worldwide chemical and material market is also affected by these technological trends as new processes gradually replace old. Plasma etching (PE) and chemical vapor deposition (CVD) are two examples. Thus, the specialty gas segment will grow at the expense of liquid etchants and sputtering targets.

Because of competitive pressures in the IC industry, suppliers are often unaware of how their product is utilized in IC processing. As a result, they are unable to respond quickly to emerging technologies and products. This report attempts to bridge the gap between user requirements and supplier attitudes. This synergy is considered essential in order for both user and supplier to remain competitive in this fast-moving industry.

During the last 30 years, the semiconductor manufacturing industry has progressed from the production of relatively simple devices such as transistors and other discretes to the highly sophisticated and extremely complex very large scale integrated circuits that are being produced today.

Chemicals suppliers are making substantial investments to meet demand growth expectations. In Taiwan, E. Merck (Darmstadt, Germany) has a big expansion under way near Hsin-chu. Mitsubishi Kagaku built a $30-million wet chemicals plant at Hsin-chu, and has started new high-purity sulfuric and hydrochloric acid production with Nippon Kasei at Onahama, Japan. Mitsubishi wants to double its electronic chemicals business, to $200 million/year in the next three to four years.

U.S. firms are active too. Olin, Mitsubishi Gas Chemical, and Kanto Chemical started up new units in 1996. Ashland's $30-million unit at Pueblo, CO doubled its capacity when it came onstream in 1998. Koch is building a plant in Texas to manufacturer ultrapure hydrochloric acid, hydrofluoric acid, ammonium hydroxide, and IPA. It already manufacturers sulfuric acid at plants in Oklahoma and Wyoming. Koch's sales of electronic-grade sulfuric acid are set to grow 35% this year. Hydrogen peroxide producer Solvay Interox already makes 50% of its sales through direct bulk sales to semiconductor manufacturers.

The issue that many chemicals suppliers are grappling with is how to assemble an offering to meet the fabs' growing demand for a restricted group of suppliers who can service them worldwide, already the case in gases. Given the complexity and variety of the supplies the fabs require -- which is reflected in the fragmented supplier base -- that is a tough challenge. Olin, Mitsubishi, and Sumitomo Chemical already have combined offerings of chemicals and photoresists, while Ashland has chemicals and photoresist strippers.

Lever-aging its position in laminates and spin-on glass and its technical support infrastructure, which includes Riedel de-Haen in Europe, AlliedSignal is broadening its portfolio to expand our presence with semiconductor customers.

Alliances could lead to more linkups with the gases side of fab supplies, a package already offered by Air Products and Air Liquide. Praxair is discussing partnerships with chemicals suppliers, General Chemical (Pittsburg, CA) wants to get into more chemicals management, allied to a gas company. There is a continuation in the trend of customers wanting to see gas companies providing more comprehensive solutions, from materials sourcing through to effluent handling.

Semiconductor fabrication techniques have changed consistently during this period. Almost every area in the manufacturing process has changed. Wafers are larger with higher and more uniform quality. Photoresists have been improved and larger selections are offered. Almost every piece of equipment has become more sophisticated from imaging equipment to furnaces to ion implanters. Automation is fast making inroads and cluster tools dominate the equipment market.

However, during the entire thirty years, chemicals have played a major role in semiconductor processing and that important role continues today. The chemicals offered today are certainly more chemically pure and contain less particulate contamination. The chemical companies are to be commended for offering much higher quality products at prices that are acceptable to the industry.

Although this improved quality is absolutely required by today's semiconductor technology, the basic concepts of chemical production, packaging, distribution and dispensing have changed more than other parts of the manufacturing process have changed. During the last ten years the most significant progress has been made. Improvements have been made in the basic manufacturing process, storage and shipping, filtration, availability of improved packaging, analytical capabilities and dispensing systems.

This report is offered for the purpose of assisting a user in evaluating the spectrum of products, packaging, and dispensing systems available for his use. It also suggests criteria for selecting a vendor as well as a chemical delivery and dispensing system that will serve his specific requirements.

The report also gives insights to suppliers for future user needs and should assist them in long range planning, new product development and product improvement.

This report addresses the strategic issues impacting both the user and supplier of chemicals and materials and is written for:

• Chemical and material suppliers to the semiconductor industry
• Executive personnel of semiconductor manufacturing facilities
• Buyers of chemicals and materials for the semiconductor industry
• Strategic planners of semiconductor facilities
• Product planners of chemicals and materials to the semiconductor industry

Cleanrooms and Contamination Control in VLSI Manufacturing

The yield and reliability of semiconductor devices is a function of particulate contamination in all stages of fabrication. Yield increases as the number of defects/cm2 decreases. Because of the larger die size of increasingly complex chips, the impact on yield in enhanced. 1.6 defects/cm2 equates to a 40% yield for 4 Mbit DRAMS, but a 10% yield for 16 Mbit DRAMs and 0% yield for 64 Mbit DRAMs. The need for low defects, via low purity and particulate levels, is paramount to successful VLSI fabrication.

This report addresses the issues of contamination of Si and GaAs wafers from liquid and gaseous chemicals, de-ionized water, and ambient air. The latest developments in the identification, monitoring, and removal of these contaminants are described, together with the trends in usage.

Issues important to both user and supplier are described, focusing on a need to develop a synergy between these two groups. Most importantly, issues impacting users and suppliers in a competitive atmosphere with the Japanese are elucidated. This report addresses the worldwide markets and forecasts of cleanroom construction, and filters.

A description of the worlds cleanrooms is presented, discussing all the details of each of these fabs, segmented by geographical region.

Each are detailed by:

• Location
• Size of Wafer Processed/Throughput
• Process Technology
• Principle Products
• Number of Employees
• Plant Area
• Cleanroom area
• Company revenues

Sub 0.25-Micron Lithography: Market Analysis and Strategic Issues

Each new generation of IC devices brings about a corresponding decrease in linewidths and minimum feature sizes. The technological trends and innovations in IC fabrication processes directly influences the market for microlithography equipment. This market is the most competitive of all front-end semiconductor equipment markets, due to the high price of the equipment and the potential for high profit.

Optical methods of wafer imaging have remained the dominant force in the IC industry, despite claims made by E-beam, X-ray, and focused ion beam equipment manufacturers that even higher resolution is needed for VLSI devices. Two of the main reasons for the continual acceptance of this technology have been system maturity and the development of more effective exposure ultraviolet radiation. The current advances in optical system will eventually reach their limits, resulting in competitive marketing and technology strategies by X-ray vendors for a share of the microlithography market.

American, Japanese, and European suppliers are reviewed in this report, and the market growth is established to 2000 for step-and-scan projection aligners, step-and-repeat aligners, and X-ray systems. This report also examines and projects the technologies involved, their likely developments, what problems and choices are facing users, and where the opportunities and pitfalls are.

Current advances in optical systems could reach their limitation for 4 Gbit devices, but will continue to be a driving force. X-ray technology is being positioned to step in. However, Sematech's endorsement of SCALPEL and EUV will push theses technologies to the forefront. Advances in optics, phase shift masks, and photoresists are fueling optical lithography and will further complicate the future marketplace.

The primary objective of this report is to review the current issues dealing with lithography as applied to the manufacture of VLSI devices.

Topics specifically covered include:

• Technology trends
• Products
• Applications
• Suppliers
• Markets
• Opportunities and strategies

Mask Making, Inspection, and Repair: Market Analysis and Strategic Issues

Each new generation of IC devices brings about a corresponding decrease in linewidths and minimum feature sizes. The technological trends and innovations in IC fabrication processes directly influences the market for masks and mask making equipment. This market is one the most competitive of all front-end semiconductor equipment markets, due to the high price of the equipment and the potential for high profit.

Mask-making needs in a VLSI facility are complicated by the high cost of capital equipment, with E-beam systems priced above $5 million. The need for masks with smaller feature sizes and tighter specifications has required a high level of capital equipment purchases by the mask-making facility.

Coupled with severe semiconductor recessions in the 1980s, captive mask making operations sold their facilities while merchant operations resorted to price-cutting methods. This downward pressure on price, in turn, makes it difficult for vendors to show a profit. Phase-shift masks, optical proximity correction, and reduction DUV further pose economic barriers to mask shops.

This report addresses the strategic issues impacting the mask making, inspection, and repair sectors of the semiconductor industry. The mask making markets are analyzed and projected to 2003.

This report is written for:

• Semiconductor manufacturers
• Equipment and material suppliers
• Investment analysts
• Venture capitalists

This report examines and projects the technologies involved, their likely developments, why and when their or demise will take place, what problems and choices are facing users, and where the opportunities and pitfalls are.

Cluster Tools in IC Processing: Technology and Market Forecasts

In only ten years, modular, multichamber, integrated process systems -- cluster tools -- have achieved worldwide recognition, and have become widely accepted worldwide as a key concept for VLSI manufacturing.

The perceived advantages of cluster tools comes at a time when the semiconductor industry has been is a sustained growth period, when rising costs has increased the cost of a 35,000 sq. ft. fab to $430 million, for production of 64 Mbit DRAMs or equivalents, which were in full production in 1995.

However, despite the claims for the advantages of cluster tools, quantitative data have been largely unproven. Open architectures, which will open the flood gates for standardization in the equipment industry, have not been established sufficiently to prove their value. As a result, closed architecture systems will continue to be sold throughout the timeframe of this study, even though they may not necessarily provide the lowest cost or best technology for a specific process.

This report addresses these technical issues, presenting an analysis of the industry, the key players, and the driving forces directing the cluster tool concept. Markets are analyzed from 1998 to 2003, and are segmented by flexible and non-flexible cluster tools.

Plasma Etching: Market Analysis and Strategic Issues

Plasma etching, which has replaced wet etching for the patterning of VLSI circuits, can be considered a mature technology. Today, plasma etch systems are used for the great majority of etching processes.

Nevertheless, the technology is dynamic and new issues are brought to the forefront with each new generation of devices. As linewidths decrease further, new processes and equipment designs will be utilized. The increased usage of 200-mm wafers and the migration to 300-mm wafers will further impact the worldwide equipment market.

This market, once dominated by batch systems, primarily with the hexode reactor design, has been re-directed toward single wafer designs. The market forecast presented in this report is segmented by batch and single wafer reactor designs and forecast to 2003.

This report addresses the strategic issues impacting both the user and supplier of plasma etching equipment to the semiconductor industry. This report also attempts to bridge the gap between user requirements and supplier attitudes.

CMP Technology: Competition, Products, Markets

This technology-marketing report examines and projects the technologies involved in the planarization of semiconductor layers. The Emphasis is on Chemical Mechanical Polishing (CMP), a process technology that has emerged as a key solution to many of the problems associated with uneven surface topography on IC devices. Current issues related to this technology are addressed.

The complete CMP process is a combination of numerous types of equipment and consumables. Demand in the semiconductor industry is not limited to polishers and oxide slurries, but from a plethora of new pad and slurry combinations arising from the need to planarize such metals as aluminum, tungsten, and copper.

Other technologies will see a concomitant growth with the polisher and consumables market. These include efficient distribution systems to mix, dilute, filter, and deliver slurry and post-CMP clean materials to the CMP modules and post-CMP clean systems; and metrology equipment to measure planarity, film thickness, and surface defects.

This report discusses the technology trends, products, applications, and suppliers of materials and equipment. It also gives insights to suppliers for future user needs and should assist them in long range planning, new product development and product improvement. A market forecast for CMP equipment and materials is presented to 2003.

LCD Processing: Challenges, Directions, Markets

This technology-marketing report examines and projects the technologies involved in the fabrication of Liquid Crystal Displays (LCD), their likely developments, why and when their or demise will take place, what problems and choices are facing users, and where the opportunities and pitfalls are.

This report discusses the technology trends, products, applications, and suppliers of materials and equipment. It also gives insights to suppliers for future user needs and should assist them in long range planning, new product development and product improvement.

While the LCD market is dominated by the Japanese, the race for a $8 billion equipment and materials market by 2003 is still wide open to U.S. and European players.

While much of the LCD market is not growing like the semiconductor market, the Active Matrix LCD (AMLCD) is poised for explosive growth, necessitating the need for equipment and materials.

With the Japanese dominating LCDs production nearly since the start, it is not surprising that the majority of production equipment and materials is supplied by Japanese vendors.

Yields on TFT displays in Japan are low -- only two 12.1-in. panels on a sheet of second-generation motherglass, compared with six 10.4-in. panels on the same size glass substrate. New third-generation plants can make six 12.1-in. panels on a substrate, but yields have been low due to technical problems upgrading to the new production technology.

Costs of current AMLCDs are too high for most applications. Parts and materials for FPDs is 38%, compared to 20% for ICs.

The total number of parts needed to fabricate an LCD is 50 times that of an IC.

• Japan is dominating in investment and implementation in manufacturing compared to the U.S.
• Japan is leading in product development and is expanding its lead
• Japan is currently even with the U.S. in basic research but is gaining

Although used regularly for high-end computer systems in the U.S., Europe, and Japan, and in military applications, the extension of the market beyond the realm of high-cost, low-volume systems is affected by several factors:

• Limited high-volume applications
• Low production volume
• Low yields on third-generation motherglass
• High facility capitalization

Important issues addressed include:

• Yields must be improved
• Processing capacity must achieve a ten-fold increase
• Material costs must be reduced
• Will the U.S. build displays that will fuel local demand for equipment and materials
• Customers are in Japan, and vendors must develop strategic partnerships there

This report is written for:

• Marketing and Product Managers
• Strategic Planners
• Systems and Circuit Engineering Managers in ICs, Packaging, Test, Assembly, and Materials
• Investment Analysts

Applied Materials: Competing for World Dominance

If you're competing with Applied Materials, you should read this report. If your not competing with Applied Materials, think again, and read this report. Applied Materials' aggressive stance in the equipment industry means that no company is safe.

Applied Materials' product strategies are based on a sixfold focus:

• 1. Providing solutions to users' problems. Applied Materials' product technology is based on identifying and solving users' problems more so than offering the latest technology. The company was well aware in the early 1980s of the vacuum problems and related costs associated with the single chamber-batch process technology that was used by the entire industry. Applied Materials decided as early as in 1985 to switch to the single wafer, multi-chamber technology (SWMC) -- technology that solved the vacuum problems. In 1987 the company commercialized its first SWMC equipment. Applied Materials is also continually improving its products rather than discontinuing a line and replacing it with another line.
• 2. Developing and keeping core technology in-house. Applied Materials' core technology consists of deposition, etching, ion implantation, thermal processing, and CMP. The technology is developed, designed, and manufactured internally rather than bought through acquisitions. Only metrology and inspection became a core technology through acquisition
• 3. Process integration. This is Applied Materials' major strength, as the company is providing process sequence integration through clustering. In this method several different process chambers are capable of operating in concert on the same platform. This in turn, enhances productivity and minimizes the customers' capital investments.
• 4. Reducing the cost of ownership. In addition to process integration strategy, Applied Materials' focused planning, designing, and manufacturing operation led to the strategy of developing internally only three platforms -- the Precision, Endura, and Centura -- to provide its customers with system flexibility, minimum capital investment, and minimum cost of operation. A new product is not commercialized unless the company can prove a substantial reduction in cost of ownership. The company also continually improves its products to reduce training period and maintenance, and thus further reduces the cost of ownership.
• 5. Providing superior infrastructure. The infrastructure that supports the company's production and sales is able to respond very quickly to the market and customer needs.
• 6. Investing carefully in non-core products. Although the company never acquired a product line through acquisition, did acquire metrology capabilities with the acquisition of Orbot and Opal. Applied Materials, which is successfully managing $4.1 billion in sales in FY1998, is choosing very few selected joint ventures/alliances, such as the 1993 joint venture with Komatsu to develop equipment for flat panel displays.

This report discusses the current strategies of Applied Materials in the '90s as it competes for world dominance. Strategies of its competitors are also analyzed. Market forecasts are presented to 2003, and market shares for 1994-1998 are detailed.

300mm/Copper/Low-K Convergence:Timing, Trends, Issues, Market Analysis

In mid-1997, semiconductor suppliers and the companies that produce chip-manufacturing equipment were set to implement building ICs on 300mm (12-in.) wafers. A massive R&D effort, estimated at slightly more than $4 billion expended so far, has been under way for three or more years to develop the technologies and equipment for the big wafers.

The switchover was economically driven. Chips could be built more cheaply on larger wafers. Then came 1998, and the economics changed.

Now it's the chip interconnect revolution, with the move to copper interconnects and low-K dielectric layers.

Copper and low-K helped push back the 300mm front. The new interconnect technologies don't just increase chip performance; they also help make higher chip density possible. The more you improve density, the more ICs you make per wafer, and the less you need a bigger wafer.

The move to copper is going to take longer because the industry expended so much of its reserves on 300mm. Badly burned industry players are going to be twice as cautious moving forward.

Multichip Modules (MCMs): Market Analysis and Technology Trends

Multichip modules offer a host of benefits including performance improvements such as shorter interconnect lengths between die, resulting in reduced time of flight, lower power supply inductance, lower capacitance loading, less cross talk and lower off-chip driver power. MCMs result in a smaller overall package when compared to packaged components performing the same function, hence resulting I/O to the system board is significantly reduced. By sweeping several devices onto one package, board complexity is simplified, thereby by reducing total opportunities for error at the board assembly level.

Multichip modules have been subcategorized to better define their content and function. An MCM is described as a package combining multiple IC's into a single system-level unit. The resulting module is capable of handling an entire function. These MCM packages typically have custom pin out configurations as well. MCP, or multichip packages (sometimes referred to as few chip packages), are typically low lead count combinations of simple IC's. For these packages system control still occurs at the board level. They are primarily produced in volume in standard pin out and package configurations such as DIPs SOJs , QFPs and BGAs.

This report examines and projects the technologies involved, their likely developments, what problems and choices are facing users, and where the opportunities and pitfalls are. The worldwide markets are analyzed and projected in the 1998 - 2003 timeframe.

Video/Audio Compression Technology: Products, Applications, Markets

The heightened activity in creating low-cost chips to support multimedia, particularly motion video, is hastening the adoption of multimedia capabilities into desktop and portable computers. In fact, circuits that directly support the MPEG-2 standard are already available from various suppliers.

Comprising this technology are such products as television set-top boxes, video CD players, desktop videoconferencing, imaging, and video games.

The technology of video/audio compression is technology driven. Many of the applications discussed in this report stem from enabling technology that is reaching the point where large market growth is anticipated. As an example, wireless videoconferencing technology has become viable because of three technological factors:

• Acceptable video quality
• Acceptable bandwidth constraints
• Industry standards

Semiconductor suppliers are rushing their chips to market because the volumes are expected to be huge. National Semiconductor bought a minority stake in Integrated Information Technology, while Texas Instruments signed a foundry and technology exchange pact with C-Cube Microsystems.

This report presents a detailed description of the products, applications, and markets for video/audio compression chips. The market for chips and end products is forecast to 2003.

High-Speed Datacom Chipsets: Products, Applications, Markets

The different paths available to high-speed data communications segments such as ATM, FDDI, and Fast Ethernet are causing headaches for chip makers, network equipment designers, and end users. While faster networking architectures are gaining ground on Ethernet (which is also a moving target in the high-speed race), progress in standards and developments in chip technology are needed to bring them to the desktop.

This report examines in detail the short and long term benefits of each of the 100 Mbit/s and greater standards, and how each will move toward dominance on the desktop in terns of: availability of integrated chip solutions; progress of standards groups; and cost.

It also presents a forecast of the growth of each of these markets, and is written for:

• Chip makers
• Network equipment designers
• End users.

Embedded Controllers/Processors: Applications, Markets, Key Issues

Embedded processors have diversified. A large part of this diversification arises from the nature of the applications that embedded processors service. Those applications are so broad in scope, there is no one specification, no one platform suited for them all. Nor can a single processor or processor family service the variety of embedded applications. Of necessity, then, the assortment of embedded microprocessors grows, and will continue to grow.

Though one might think that this growth and diversification are restricted to low-end embedded applications (where the number of 4- and 8-bit processors and variants is probably uncountable), that's not the case. The variety of high-end embedded processors is on the rise. And more and more high-end embedded systems are incorporating RISC processors.

RISC's initial appearance on the computing scene saw the architecture rise to quick prominence. Industry and trade press experts, joined by pseudo-experts, speculated loudly that RISC would be the dominant desktop processor architecture by the early to mid-'90s. Such is obviously not the case, though RISC does continue to dominate the workstation market (where it found its first foothold). RISC manufacturers, having -- for now, at least -- yielded the desktop, are turning their attention to embedded applications. This shift in target focus has borne quick fruit.

Embedded designers are embracing RISC in growing numbers. But the acceptance is not wholehearted. Though RISC processors have characteristics that recommend them to embedded applications (simpler designs and, therefore, less silicon consumption, as compared to CISC, for example), other characteristics suggest the opposite: that a RISC processor is precisely what one doesn't want in an embedded system. The best example of RISC's negative attributes is what is referred to as its "code bloat" problem.

RISC's fixed instruction length means that there has been no optimization of instruction size based on instruction usage. All instructions, even frequently used ones, are the same length. The minimal instruction set and load-store architecture combine so that, in general, more RISC than CISC instructions are needed to carry out a given operation. Estimates on the increased code requirements of RISC over CISC range from 30-50%.

This report examines all the key issues related to the 4-, 8- , 16- and 32-bit microcontroller/microprocessor market. It is a must for manufacturers, users and designers whose present and future products will be influenced by high-performance embedded processing.

Worldwide Consumer Electronics: Product Trends and Markets

The consumption of consumer electronic products is intimately tied to the economic health of the geographic region. Nevertheless, technological improvements in consumer electronics products will continue to spur consumer purchases.

Future growth of the industry will depend on innovations and new product s, which are a direct result in advancements in microprocessors and memory devices.

This report describes the worldwide consumption of consumer electronic products, describing the trends in product capability and sophistication.

Markets are forecast to 2003 with the consumer products categorized as:

• Video Equipment
• Audio Equipment
• Computer Products
• Telephone Equipment
• Personal Products

The GaAs IC Market

As gallium arsenide device manufacturers convert to 150 mm wafers and continue to shrink device features to 0.4 μm, GaAs Ics have become more competitive with silicon.

The booming market for communications equipment should fuel the long awaited commercial success of GaAs technology. Mobile communications is currently the fastest-growing area within the telecom sector, and GaAs Ics will reap the rewards. High-speed computing and fiber optic applications will also offer substantial volumes for high-performance GaAs devices.

This report investigates the technology trends, applications, and market developments of GaAs Ics for the period 1995-2000. U.S., Japanese, and European applications including communications, computers, defense, consumers, are reviewed.

This report will provide the reader with an in-depth understanding of the technological and market factors determining the evolution of GaAs Ics. The report explains the motivations behind company and government efforts and describes the major obstacles still facing the development of a merchant market.

The report is intended to provide guidance to individuals and companies directly or indirectly connected with the development of the GaAs device market. Most importantly, it will give a balanced and independent perspective on the subject.

It is prepared for:

• GaAs IC and Wafer Suppliers
• GaAs IC and Wafer Users
• Foundry Services
• Investment Analysts