Abstract
Key Conclusions:
This model represents pioneering work in the modeling of UHP-type lamp
replacement needs for the projection industry. The sophisticated model
approaches the market by dividing it into four segments and 18 user groups.
Attributes are assigned to each user group to model characteristics of the
lamp, projection product and usage, buying patterns and trends in alternative
illumination and buying patterns.
The model is a bottom-up approach to estimating demand for replacement lamps
and matches very well to our top-down approach profiled in the 2006 Projection
Lamp Report.
Results derived from the model indicate growing demand in all major segments
(Professional Front Projection, Professional Rear Projection, Consumer Front
Projection, Consumer Rear Projection) - even in consumer rear projection where
we estimate sales of new products will peak in 2008. Replacement lamp needs
will continue to increase due to the long product lifetime of these TVs and
the significant installed base.
The Need:
A lamp replacement module can cost a consumer $250 to $400 and there are
literally thousands of different modules designed and manufactured to support
the 4 major market segments. For lamp suppliers to carry even a fraction of
this inventory represents an enormous investment. The Lamp Replacement Model
can help to manage this inventory to reduce costs and write-offs of
overstocked inventory.
Projection systems makers can use the model in a similar way to anticipate the
lamp replacement needs of the intended user group and manage inventories, or
provide better guidance on inventory management to stocking partners.
Finally, purchasers of the Lamp Replacement Model can customize spreadsheets
and profiles for a wide variety of analytical tasks including "what if"
scenarios.
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