2008 3D TELEVISION REPORT

Abstract

• Executive Summary
• Human Factors of 3D Stereo Perception
• Existing Content for 3DTV
• New 3D Content Creation
• 2DTV Display Technologies
• 3DTV Display Technologies
  • 3DTV Projection Systems (Front and rear projection)
  • 3D AMLCD Television
  • 3D Plasma Television
  • 3D OLED Television
• 3DTV Content Delivery
• Forecast and Prospects for 3DTV
• Glossary of 3D Terms and Acronyms

In this report, we start with a very detailed and fundamental analysis of three topics key to the penetration of 3DTV into the consumer market:

• 3D content that can interest consumers and attract them to 3DTV
• 3D content distribution technology and formats that will bring this content to the consumer' s home
• 3D display technology capable of producing HDTV-quality images for the consumer in both 2D and 3D modes.
• This analysis showed all three factors are converging in a way likely to start the widespread penetration of 3D into consumer TV.

To develop the penetration forecast, we started with penetration rates for other consumer products, including color television, videotapes and DVDs, wide-screen TV, portable media players and camera phones. These penetration rates were then applied to 3DTV, taking into account:

• Popularity of 3D cinema and the forecast penetration of 3D cinema
• Availability of 3D content at the consumer level including cinema, games and other content
• Cost premium of 3DTV systems compared to 2DTV systems and the premium the consumer has been willing to pay for other features
• The surprisingly large installed base of 3D-ready HDTVs already in consumers' homes.

These penetration rates were used to produce conservative, expected and optimistic forecasts for the penetration of 3D into the TV market through 2012. These forecasts include both unit sales of 3DTVs and the incremental revenue to the CE manufacturers that can be attributed to 3D.

For this report, we reviewed probably hundreds of documents and interviewed and/or had meetings with individuals representing over 40 companies throughout the US, Europe and Asia over the last 12 months. These meetings included site visits, telephone and e-mail interviews and discussions at trade shows. We also examined the recent forecast worldwide sales through 2012 of 2D television systems. This is a comprehensive look at the technology and market opportunity by a top-level team of Insight Media analysts.

There are many technical, market, business and pricing discussions in this report.

• Which display technologies are most suited for consumer 3D?
• Are any developments in display technology needed before widespread consumer acceptance of 3DTV?
• Is 3D content compatible with the large existing 2D content creation and distribution infrastructure?
• How will the chicken-and-egg log-jam be broken?
• Will consumers buy 3DTVs if no content is available?
• Will content be produced in 3D if there are no 3DTVs in consumers' homes?
• Will the consumer accept 3DTV?
• Will 3DTV be a fad or will it be a long-term part of the television market?
• Will there be sufficient content to sustain 3DTV sales?

• Discussion of content creation, including live-action, computer graphics and 2D-to-3D conversion
• Examination of why there is such a large installed base of 3D-ready HDTV systems when there is little or no HDTV 3D content available
• Discussion of 3D video formats for applications such as:
  • Professional image acquisition and post-production
  • Consumer image acquisition
  • Contribution formats to move content from the creators to the channel operators
  • Distribution formats to get the content into the consumers' homes
  • Display formats to get the content from the 3D display processor to the actual display (last inch problem)
• Calculation of the added bandwidth required at each step in the distribution chain compared to 2D video.
• In-depth examination of all current display technologies and how the technologies can be used to display stereoscopic 3D. This includes not just a technology discussion but also an evaluation of the added costs to both the CE manufacturer and the consumer.
• Discussion of the future direction of all 3D display technologies
• Compatibility of 3D displays with 2D content, which is expected to continue to dominate the available consumer content through the end of the study period.

This report aims to supply technologists, managers, product planners, engineers, researchers and marketing personnel with the information needed to evaluate 3DTV technology and marketing trends in the consumer HDTV market. The report also aims to provide content creators with viable forecasts of the 3D-capable TV installed base. Armed with the technical and market data provided in this report, key decision makers will be equipped to assess technology alternatives and make informed decisions as they plan products and business investments in 3D consumer products.

• This report should be purchased by anyone involved in research, development or design of consumer television systems.
• Product managers and product planners in consumer television systems.
• Component suppliers to the 3D television set manufacturers who need to understand the future trends in the market --
  • Active and passive glasses
  • 3D video processing hardware and software
  • Polarization and other materials needed in the production of 3D displays
• Content creators and distribution channel operators who need to plan for the arrival of 3D content.

The report is delivered as a PDF file under a site license agreement. Private webinar and on-site presentations and discussions of the data in this report are also available.