The 2007 Telecommunications Industry Review: An Anthology of Market Facts and Forecasts

Table of Contents

Chapter I

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• 1.1 Telecommunications Industry Economic Conditions
• 1.2 Report Structure

Chapter II

BACKGROUND: TELECOMMUNICATION INDUSTRY MARKETS

• 2.1 Telecommunications Market Conditions
  • 2.1.1 Broadband Market Trends
    • 2.1.1.1 North American Wireline Broadband Revenue Trends
    • 2.1.1.2 European Broadband Revenue Trends
    • 2.1.1.3 Asia Pacific Broadband Revenue Trends
    • 2.1.1.4 LAC Broadband Revenue Trends
• 2.2 Wireless Industry Markets
  • 2.2.1 Differences Between Wireless Mobile Technologies
  • 2.2.2 Wireless Market Trends
    • 2.2.2.1 North America Wireless Trends
    • 2.2.2.2 Europe, Mid-East, Wireless Trends
    • 2.2.2.3 Asia Pacific Wireless Trends
    • 2.2.2.4 Latin America/Caribbean Wireless Trends
• 2.3 Cable Television
  • 2.3.1 History of Cable TV
  • 2.3.2 Cable Telephony
• 2.4 The Future of Telecommunications: Three Scenarios
  • 2.4.1 Scenario I: Networks Evolve, None Are Supplanted
  • 2.4.2 Scenario II: Global Ubiquitous Internet-Based Solution
  • 2.4.3 Scenario III: Un-Tethered and Wireless

Chapter III

THE NEXT GENERATION COMMUNICATIONS NETWORK: IMPROVEMENTS TO THE INFRASTRUCTURE

• 3.1 Overview of Network Topology
  • 3.1.1 End-Users
  • 3.1.2 Access Networks
  • 3.1.3 Metro Networks
  • 3.1.4 Core Networks
• 3.2 Transmission Improvements
• 3.3 Overview of Switching Technologies
  • 3.3.1 Circuit Switching vs. Packet Switching
• 3.4 The Public Switched Telephone Network
  • 3.4.1 Evolution of the PSTN
  • 3.4.2 Changes to the PSTN by 2007
  • 3.4.3 Central Offices
• 3.5 Data Networks and VoIP
  • 3.5.1 Broadband Switches
  • 3.5.2 Data Core Networks
    • 3.5.2.1 Changes in Data Core Networks by 2007
  • 3.5.3 Data Metro Networks
  • 3.5.4 Data Access Networks
  • 3.5.5 Signaling and Support Structures for Data Networks
  • 3.5.6 Voice Over the Internet Protocol
  • 3.5.7 VoIP as Transport
  • 3.5.8 VoIP Operational Advantage
  • 3.5.9 VoIP as Value-Added Stage
• 3.6 The Next Generation Network
  • 3.6.1 Gateways
    • 3.6.1.1 Gateway Market Opportunity Forecast
  • 3.6.2 Softswitches
    • 3.6.2.1 Economic Motivations
  • 3.6.3 IP Multimedia Subsystems
• 3.7 Optical Networking
  • 3.7.1 Overview
  • 3.7.2 Add Drop Multiplexers
    • 3.7.2.1 ADM Market Opportunity
  • 3.7.3 Optical Cross Connects
  • 3.7.4 Present and Future DWDM Systems
    • 3.7.4.1 Long-Haul Systems
    • 3.7.4.2 Metropolitan Systems
    • 3.7.4.3 Wavelength Service Market Trends
  • 3.7.5 Market Analysis of SONET/SDH & DWDM Systems
• 3.8 Optical Components
  • 3.8.1 Optical Transmitters
    • 3.8.1.1 Tunable Lasers Diodes
    • 3.8.1.2 Modulators
  • 3.8.2 Optical Receivers
  • 3.8.3 Market Analysis of Optical Subsystem and Components
• 3.9 Optical Fiber
  • 3.9.1 Development of Fiber
    • 3.9.1.1 Dispersion-Shifted Fiber
    • 3.9.1.2 Non-Zero Dispersion-Shifted Fiber
  • 3.9.2 Future Fiber Design
  • 3.9.3 Market Analysis of Fiber Deployment

Chapter IV

THE ACCESS NETWORK: NARROWBAND AND BROADBAND

• 4.1 Narrowband: The Decline of US Landlines
• 4.2 Broadband Access Networks
  • 4.2.1 Broadband Access Forecasts
• 4.3 Access Network Technology Options
  • 4.3.1 DSL
  • 4.3.2 Cable
  • 4.3.3 Fiber
  • 4.3.4 Fixed Mobile Convergence
  • 4.3.5 WiFi

Chapter V

SUPPORTING THE INFRASTRUCTURE: NETWORK AND CUSTOMER SUPPORT

• 5.1 Operations Support Systems Overview
• 5.2 Operations Support Applications
  • 5.2.1 Business Operations Support
    • 5.2.1.1 Customer Care
    • 5.2.1.2 Service Orders
    • 5.2.1.3 Billing Mediation
    • 5.2.1.4 Rating
    • 5.2.1.5 Billing
  • 5.2.2 Network Operations Support
    • 5.2.2.1 Engineering and Planning
    • 5.2.2.2 Provisioning
    • 5.2.2.3 Trouble/Repair
  • 5.2.3 Network Management
  • 5.2.4 OSS Market Structure: Demand Side View
    • 5.2.4.1 Professional Services and OSSes

Chapter VI

PRESENT AND FUTURE COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES MARKETS

• 6.1 US Telecommunications Subscriber Forecasting Model
  • 6.1.1 Wireless Subscribers
  • 6.1.2 ILEC Subscribers
  • 6.1.3 CLEC Subscribers
  • 6.1.4 IXC Subscribers
  • 6.1.5 Cable Subscribers
    • 6.1.5.1 VoIP Subscribers
    • 6.1.5.2 Cable TV Subscribers
    • 6.1.5.3 Cable Modem Subscribers
  • 6.1.6 Other VoIP Subscribers
• 6.2 Worldwide VoIP Adoption
  • 6.2.1 North America International VoIP Traffic
    • 6.2.1.1 Terminating Traffic
    • 6.2.1.2 Originating Traffic
  • 6.2.2 Caribbean International VoIP Traffic
    • 6.2.2.1 Terminating Traffic
    • 6.2.2.2 Originating Traffic
  • 6.2.3 Central America International VoIP Traffic
    • 6.2.3.1 Terminating Traffic
    • 6.2.3.2 Originating Traffic
  • 6.2.4 Latin America International VoIP Traffic
    • 6.2.4.1 Terminating Traffic
    • 6.2.4.2 Originating Traffic
  • 6.2.5 Europe International VoIP Traffic
    • 6.2.5.1 Terminating Traffic
    • 6.2.5.2 Originating Traffic
  • 6.2.6 Asia International VoIP Traffic
    • 6.2.6.1 Terminating Traffic
    • 6.2.6.2 Originating Traffic
  • 6.2.7 Africa International VoIP Traffic
    • 6.2.7.1 Terminating Traffic
    • 6.2.7.2 Originating Traffic
  • 6.2.8 Oceania International VoIP Traffic
    • 6.2.8.1 Terminating Traffic
    • 6.2.8.2 Originating Traffic
• 6.3 IP-Based Application Services
  • 6.3.1 Residential Video Telephony
  • 6.3.2 Fixed Mobile Convergence
  • 6.3.3 File Sharing Services
  • 6.3.4 Streaming Services
  • 6.3.5 Location Based Services
  • 6.3.6 Presence Based Services
• 6.4 WiFi & WiMax

Chapter VII

ENTERPRISE TELECOMMUNICATIONS MARKETS

• 7.1 Private Lines
  • 7.1.1 Evolution in the Private Line Services Market
  • 7.1.2 Circuit Types
    • 7.1.2.1 56Kbit/s Circuits
    • 7.1.2.2 64Kbit/s Clear-Channel Circuits (DS0)
    • 7.1.2.3 Fractional T1 Circuits
    • 7.1.2.4 T1 Circuits (DS1)
    • 7.1.2.5 Fractional T3 Circuits (Fractional DS3)
    • 7.1.2.6 T3 Circuits (DS3)
    • 7.1.2.7 Optical Carrier Circuits
  • 7.1.3 SONET, IP and Private Lines
  • 7.1.4 Private Line Circuit Layout
  • 7.1.5 Redundancy & Restoration
  • 7.1.6 Private Line Alternatives
  • 7.1.7 Private Line Market Analysis
• 7.2 Managed Services & the Enterprise
• 7.3 Managed Services Industry Revenue
• 7.4 Vertical Industry Spending on Telecommunications Services
  • 7.4.1 Telecommunications Expenditures by Vertical Industry
  • 7.4.2 Healthcare as a Fast Growing Vertical Industry
    • 7.4 2.1 Healthcare Industry Structure Ready for Change
    • 7.4.2.2 Market Estimate of Healthcare Telecom Spending
• 7.5 Grid Computing
  • 7.5.1 What is Grid Computing
  • 7.5.2 Grid Computing Implications for Telecom
  • 7.5.3 Grid Computing Market Analysis

Appendix

GLOSSARY

Table of Figures

Chapter I

• I-1 Worldwide IP Services Market, 2006-2011

Chapter II

• II-1 Broadband Services Revenue Distribution, 2006-2011
• II-2 EMEA Broadband Wireline Revenue, 2005-2010
• II-3 Asia Pacific Broadband Wireline Revenue, 2005-2010
• II-4 LAC Broadband Wireline Revenue, 2005-2010
• II-5 Distribution of Wireless Networks by Technology Type
• II-6 Impact of New Wireless Data Service Usage on ARPU
• II-7 Regional Subscriber Growth 2002-2005
• II-8 Total Wireline and Wireless Broadband and Narrowband Revenues by Scenario

Chapter III

• III-1 Public Communication Network Architecture
• III-2 SONET Ring Configuration
• III-3 Hierarchy of Broadband Switch Functions
• III-4 US Broadband Switches Compared with Increase in Throughput
• III-5 US Broadband Switch Revenue, 2001-2006
• III-6 Typical National Data Core Network
• III-7 Core Network Configurations by Type of Traffic Pattern
• III-8 Worldwide Gateway Revenue Forecast, 2005-2010
• III-9 Softswitch Architecture Diagram
• III-10 Circuit vs. Packet Switching of Internet Traffic
• III-11 Switched Opt/Electrical Net vs. All-Opt IP Meshed Net
• III-12 Total ADM Revenue, 2003 and 2008
• III-13 Origins of the Digital Cross Connect
• III-14 Evolution of the Digital Cross Connect
• III-15 Long-Haul DWDM System
• III-16 Two Ways to Expand DWDM Capacity
• III-17 Total SONET/SDH Terminal Market
• III-18 Total DWDM Sales, 2000-2008
• III-19 ITU-T Wavelength Spacing Grid for DWDM Systems
• III-20 DWDM Bands Around 1550 Nanometers
• III-21 Worldwide Optical Components Market
• III-22 Four-Wave Mixing
• III-23 Fiber Deployment Percentage of Total by Region

Chapter IV

• IV-1 Broadband Penetration by Technology in Top 20 Economies
• IV-2 HFC Architecture Providing Video and Voice Services
• IV-3 Total RBOC Cash Expense Per Line in Service
• IV-4 Cell Phone Penetration as a Percentage of All Phone Subscribers
• IV-5 Wireline vs. Mobile Phone Growth 1995-2004
• IV-6 SIP-Based Network Application Server Approach

Chapter V

• V-1 Operations Support Systems Dataflow
• V-2 Business Operations Systems Dataflow
• V-3 Worldwide Total OSS Sales Revenue Forecast
• V-4 Worldwide Professional Services Revenue by Region

Chapter VII

• VII-1 Capacities of 64Kbit/s, T1, and T3 Circuits
• VII-2 Typical Layout for a Full Circuit
• VII-3 ISDN Switched Backup
• VII-4 SONET Rings
• VII-5 Fiber-to-Fiber Redundancy
• VII-6 Cable-to-Cable Physical Redundancy
• VII-7 Total Private Line Revenue, 2005-2010
• VII-8 Managed Wide Area Network Endpoints, 2003-2010
• VII-9 Internet Traffic and IT Staffing
• VII-10 US Managed Services Revenues, 2006-2011
• VII-11 Drivers of Telecom Expenditures in Vertical Markets
• VII-12 Total US Telecom Wireline Market, 2005 and 2010
• VII-13 Top-Tier Expenditures for Telecom Wireline Services 259
• VII-14 Total US Telecom Wireless Services, 2005 and 2010
• VII-15 Top-Tier Expenditures for Telecom Wireless Services
• VII-16 Total US Healthcare Telecom Service Revenues
• VII-17 Grid Computing as Part of the IT Evolution

Table of Tables

Chapter I

• I-1 Worldwide Telecom Revenue Forecast by Services Category, 2005-2010

Chapter II

• II-1 Global Carrier Revenue by Region, 2005-2010
• II-2 2005 and 2010 Distribution of Global Carrier Revenue by Region
• II-3 Service Provider Revenue, 2006-2011
• II-4 Worldwide Telecom Revenue Forecast by Services Category
• II-5 Broadband Consumer Applications and Required Bandwidth
• II-6 North American Broadband Wireline Revenue by Market Segment 17
• II-7 Wireless Subscribers by Global Region 2002-2011 (Thousands)
• II-8 Typical Frequencies Used for Mobile Services (US vs. International)
• II-9 Mobile Wireless Standards (First, Second, and Third Generation)
• II-10 Wireless Network Deployment Status, 2005 and 2006 (Number of Networks)
• II-11 Examples of 2.5G and 3G Services
• II-12 Revenue for 2G, 2.5G, and 3G Market Segments by Region,
• II-13 Four MSO Voice Delivery Options
• II-14 Total Wireline and Wireless Broadband and Narrowband Revenues by Scenario

Chapter III

• III-1 Definitions of Digital Private Line Services
• III-2 SONET Data Rates
• III-3 Distinctions between POTS and Data Networks
• III-4 Network Locations of Broadband Switches
• III-5 Wireline SS7 Queries 2003-2008 (Thousands)
• III-6 Impacts of VoIP on International Telecommunications Services Revenue
• III-7 Gateway Functions
• III-8 Softswitch Advantages/Disadvantages
• III-9 Economic Benefits of Softswitch Technology
• III-10 Strategies to Increase Network Service Margins
• III-11 OADM Applications
• III-12 Typical Features of First Gene Metro vs. Long-Haul DWDM Networks
• III-13 Wavelength Market Segments
• III-14 Typical Service Providers Offers for Native Wavelength Services
• III-15 Typical Service Providers Offers for Wavelength Services Over SONET
• III-16 Wavelength Services Revenue Totals
• III-17 ITU-T Frequency and Wavelength Grid for DWDM Systems
• III-18 Fiber Deployment by Region, 2000-2008

Chapter IV

• IV-1 US Access Line Trends: Residential and Business, 2000-2005
• IV-2 US Access Line Estimates, Residential and Business, 2006-2011
• IV-3 US Residential Primary Access Line Declines by Wireless and Broadband VoIP
• IV-4 Broadband Communication Network Access Solutions
• IV-5 Broadband Penetration as a Percentage of Households,
• IV-6 Worldwide Broadband Lines, 2006-2011
• IV-7 The Versions and Features of xDSL
• IV-8 Number of Consumer Broadband Lines with Wireless Home Networking

Chapter V

• V-1 OSS Definitions Summary
• V-2 Characteristics of Broadband Network Management
• V-3 Distinct Characteristics of Packet Broadband Network Management
• V-4 Worldwide OSS Sales by Region, 2005-2010 ($Millions)
• V-5 Worldwide OSS Sales Distribution by Region
• V-6 Worldwide OSS Sales Revenue, Wireline vs. Wireless
• V-7 Worldwide OSS Sales Revenue by Service Type

Chapter VI

• VI-1 Growth in Subscribers All Segments
• VI-2 Growth in Wireless Subscriber
• VI-3 Growth in ILEC Subscribers by Line Type
• VI-4 Growth in CLEC Subscribers
• VI-5 Growth in IXC Subscribers
• VI-6 Growth in Cable Subscribers by Service Type
• VI-7 Growth in Other VoIP Subscribers
• VI-8 North American Inbound MOUs with VoIP
• VI-9 North American Outbound MOUs with VoIP
• VI-10 Caribbean Inbound MOUs with VoIP
• VI-11 Caribbean Outbound MOUs with VoIP
• VI-12 Central America Inbound MOUs with VoIP
• VI-13 Central America Outbound MOUs with VoIP
• VI-14 Latin America Inbound MOUs with VoIP
• VI-15 Latin America Outbound MOUs with VoIP
• VI-16 Europe Inbound MOUs with VoIP
• VI-17 Europe Outbound MOUs with VoIP
• VI-18 Asia Inbound MOUs with VoIP
• VI-19 Asia Outbound MOUs with VoIP
• VI-20 Africa Inbound MOUs with VoIP
• VI-21 Africa Outbound MOUs with VoIP
• VI-22 Oceania Inbound MOUs with VoIP
• VI-23 Oceania Outbound MOUs with VoIP
• VI-24 Variations on the 802.11 Standard

Chapter VII

• VII-1 Digital Services Hierarchy
• VII-2 SONET/Optical Carrier Hierarchy
• VII-3 Managed Services Segments
• VII-4 Provider Strengths and Weaknesses
• VII-5 Healthcare Market Segments
• VII-6 Healthcare Segment Dimensions and Trends
• VII-7 Grid Market Segmentation by Resource
• VII-8 Grid Market Segmentation by Organization
• VII-9 Worldwide Grid Spending, 2006-2011