FTTx Economics - Conditions for profitability

Following Japan and the United States, massive deployment projects for Very High Speed networks are envisioned for Europe. The majority of these projects are apparently still held back by a number of factors: regulations (optical loop unbundling?), technology (fiber to the customer?) and demography (target only large cities and areas that allow easy access to passive infrastructures?). These factors illustrate the uncertainty that looms above the economic elements of these projects, which entail a considerable investment.

Using a schema of the different costs and revenue, particularly investment expenses, the study measures how a certain number of variables could affect the deployment of these access networks: population density, technical architecture and penetration rates. These measures are then sub-divided according operator category (incumbent, new, alternative and utility operators). More generally, it is important to create an overall picture, including a few general market factors (size, level of competition, price, etc.), which would allow the balance of operations on a large scale to be tested.

Most importantly, these different calculations will enable us to pinpoint the key business model parameters for the different types of operators and subsequently, the conditions required for a successful Very High Speed access deployment .

• Are the current deployments truly significant?
• What are the main lessons to be learned?
• What criteria do industry players use before deciding to enter into VHS?
• Which are the key factors of the VHS access economy?
• How do the different adjustment variables of the model affect deployment?
• Which architectures are best suited to the different possible configurations?
• What is the minimum market share required in order to be profitable?