The UAV Market Report 2006

Table of Contents

1.0 Executive Summary

• 1.1 UAV limitations
• 1.2 The civilian market

2.0 UAV History

• 2.1 Israeli Pioneering
• 2.2 Global UAV Spread
  • 2.2.1 U.S. Dominant UAV Player
  • 2.2.2 Growing Importance of UAVs to a Range of Applications

3.0 UAV Definitions and Typologies

• 3.1 Air Segment
• 3.2 Ground Segment
• 3.3 Mission Type Determines Design Characteristics
• 3.4 UAV Categories
  • 3.4.1Short- to medium-range UAVs
  • 3.4.2Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) UAVs
  • 3.4.3High Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) UAVs
  • 3.4.4Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAVs)
  • 3.4.5Miniature or Micro UAVs

4.0 UAV Market Overview

• 4.1 UAV Market Estimates 2006-2014
• 4.1.1U.S. 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review Driving Growth
• 4.2 Markets by Region
  • 4.2.1The EU Market
  • 4.2.2The U.S. Market
  • 4.2.3 U.S and EU UAV Spending Compared
  • 4.2.4Global UAV Activity

5.0 UAV Missions

• 5.1 U.S Mission Planning Assumptions
• 5.2 Trends in UAV Missions
  • 5.2.1 Two Major Mission Families
  • 5.2.2 Persistence/non-aggressive missions
  • 5.2.3 Aggressive Missions
  • 5.2.2 Additional Missions
    • 5.2.2.1 Security and Paramilitary Missions
    • 5.2.2.2 Airlift and Support
• 5.3 Civilian UAV applications
  • 5.3.1 Potential Civil Missions
  • 5.3.2 Current Civil UAV Operations
    • 5.3.2.1 EU Studies Show Wider Range of Civil UAV Applications

6.0 UAV Challenges

• 6.1 Costs
• 6.1.2 U.S. UAV Cost Baseline
• 6.2 Reliability
  • 6.2.1 Reliabilty Issues Undermine Current UAV Applications
  • 6.2.2 Reliability Improvements
• 6.3 Survivability
• 6.4 Bandwidth Requirements
  • 6.4.1 Urban Contexts Especially Problematic
  • 6.4.2 Improvements Dependent on Changes to Design and Communications Infrastructure
• 6.5 Operational Issues
  • 6.5.1 Field Operations Reveal Problems
  • 6.5.2 Interoperability
    • 6.5.1.2 U.S. Operations Reveal Deficiencies
    • 6.5.1.3 Interoperability Issues in NATO and European UAV Applications
• 6.6 Logistical Issues
  • 6.6.1 Fuel and Battery Requirements
  • 6.6.2 Integration in Controlled Airspace

7.0 Emerging UAV Technological Requirements

• 7.1 Unmanned Requirements as a General Technology Driver
  • 7.1.2 UAV Technology at a Watershed
• 7.2 Major Technological Issues
  • 7.2.1 Control Technologies
    • 7.2.1.1 Autonomy the Key Development
  • 7.2.2 Communications
  • 7.2.3 Data Links
    • 7.2.3.1 Optical Links
  • 7.2.4 Network-Centric Communications
  • 7.2.5 Airframe
  • 7.2.6 Propulsion
    • 7.2.6.1 Fuel Efficiency a Propulsion Technology Driver
  • 7.2.7 Payload Technologies
    • 7.2.7.1Sensors
    • 7.2.7.2 Communications Relay
    • 7.2.7.3 Weapons

8.0 Other Unmanned Vehicles

• 8.1 Background
• 8.2 Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs)
  • 8.2.1 British Pioneer Modern UGV Applications
  • 8.2.2 U.S. Developments
  • 8.2.3 Future UGV Applications Growing
  • 8.2.4 Potential UGV Applications
  • 8.2.5 U.S Spending on UGVs and Robotics
    • 8.2.5.1 U.S. UGV Programmes
• 8.3 Unmanned Marine Vehicles (UMVs)
  • 8.3.1 UMV Technical Issues
  • 8.3.2 Current UMV Activities
    • 8.3.2.1 Industry Engagement
• 8.4 Market Overview

9.0 Aerospace and Defence Industrial Issues

• 9.1 Substitutability: Unmanned vs. Manned Aircraft
  • 9.1.1 Direct Substitution Unlikely
  • 9.1.2 Existing Combat Aircraft Primes are Adapting, but Face Challenges from New Entrants
• 9.2 UAV National Programmes and Industrial Capabilities

10.0 World UAV Platforms

• 10.1 Europe
  • 10.1.1 France
    • 10.1.1.1 The Neuron Programme
    • 10.1.1.2 Other French Programmes
  • 10.1.2 Germany
    • 10.1.2.1 German UAV Missions
    • 10.1.2.2 German Industry Involvement
  • 10.1.3 United Kingdom
    • 10.1.3.1 UK UCAV Programmes
    • 10.1.3.2 UK Likely to Collaborate with U.S.
  • 10.1.4 Italy
  • 10.1.5 Sweden
  • 10.1.6 European Union
    • 10.1.6.1 Russian Programmes
• 10.2 The Middle East
  • 10.2.1 Israel
  • 10.2.2 Iran
  • 10.2.3 Turkey
  • 10.2.4 United Arab Emirates
• 10.3 Asia
  • 10.3.1 Pakistan
    • 10.3.1.1 Future Plans
  • 10.3.2 India
  • 10.3.3 Japan
  • 10.3.4 China
  • 10.3.5 Singapore
  • 10.3.6 Taiwan
  • 10.3.7 South Korea
  • 10.3.8 North Korea
• 10.4 Africa and Latin America
• 10.5 United States
  • 10.5.1 UCAV Development
  • 10.5.2 Industry Involvement

11.0 Future Prospects and Recommendations

• 11.1 UAVs a Significant but not Disruptive Technology
• 11.2 Current Limitations
• 11.3 But UAVs have Come of Age
• 11.4 No Significant Opposition to UAV Applications
• 11.5 Market Growth should be Strong, but some Questions Remain
• 11.6 UCAV Markets are More Doubtful
• 11.7 Security Threats a Key Market Driver
• 11.8 UAVs Central to Network Centric Warfare
• 11.9 WMD Sensitivities may Affect Market Development
• 12.0 Appendix A: Selected U.S. Medium to Large UAV Programs
• 12.1 MQ-1 General Atomics Predator
• 12.2 MQ-9 General Atomics Predator B
• 12.3 Pioneer Inc. RQ-2B
• 12.4 Northrop Grumman RQ-4B Global Hawk
• 12.5 Northrop Grumman RQ-5 Hunter
• 12.6 AAI RQ-7A/B Shadow 200
• 12.7 Boeing and Northrop Grumman J-UCAS
• 13.0 Sources

List of Tables and Figures

• Fig. 1 UAV Global Census
• Fig. 2 UAV System: Platform, Ground Stations and Communications Links
• Fig. 3 U.S. DoD Annual UAV Funding Profile
• Fig. 4 Civil UAV Market Growth
• Fig. 5 Civil UAV Applications
• Fig. 6 Manned versus Uninhabited Aircraft (U.S. projections)
• Fig. 7 Manned Aircraft versus UAVs in U.S. Inventory
• Fig. 8 Reconnaissance UAVs versus Manned Aircraft in U.S. Inventory
• Fig. 9 FY06 Budget Proposals for UAV RDT&E and Procurement
• Fig. 10 DOD UAV R&D, FY05 - FY09
• Fig. 11 Selected Global Military UAV Programmes
• Fig. 12 U.S. and European UAV Funding Compared
• Fig. 13 Evolution of U.S. UAV Applications
• Fig. 14 Costs of Selected U.S. UAV Platforms
• Fig. 15 Trends in UAV Autonomy
• Fig. 16 UAV Future Growth Forecast
• Fig. 17 World UAV Platform Manufacturers
• Fig. 18 Summary Status of Recent U.S. UAV Programmes
• Fig. 19 Market Demand Curves