Russian Federation Broadband and WiMAX Market Analysis and Forecasts 2008-2012 Second Edition

Executive Summary

Methodology & Assumptions

1. Overview of Russia' s Telecom Market

• 1.1 Telecom Market Development
• 1.2 Historical Background
• 1.3 Main Segments of the Telecom Industry
• 1.4 Largest Telecom Holdings
• 1.5 Major Telecom Trends in 2006-2007
• 1.6 Mobile Market Analysis
  • 1.6.1 3G licenses
  • 1.6.2 3G strategies
• 1.7 Overview of the Internet Market
  • 1.7.1 Latest development
  • 1.7.2 Market forecast
  • 1.7.3 Electronic Russia and other large -scale initiatives
• 1.8 Internet Service Providers
  • 1.8.1 Historical perspective
  • 1.8.2 Current situation, major trends
• 1.9 Access Technologies
  • 1.9.1 Consumer preferences regarding broadband
  • 1.9.2 Cable/Ethernet
  • 1.9.3 ADSL
  • 1.9.4 Mobile access
  • 1.9.5 Wi-Fi
  • 1.9.6 Satellite access
  • 1.9.7 Power line communications
• 1.10 Profiles of Largest Internet Providers
  • 1.10.1 Golden Telecom
  • 1.10.2 Comstar Direct
  • 1.10.3 Centel
  • 1.10.4 Renova Media
  • 1.10.5 Svyazinvest Companies

2. Broadband Wireless Analysis

• 2.1 Historical Development of BWA in Russia
• 2.2 Current State of BWA in Russia
  • 2.2.1 Network deployments
  • 2.2.2 Networks' geographical distribution
  • 2.2.3 Network distribution by city
• 2.3 Russian BWA/WiMAX Market Sizing
• 2.4 WiMAX Roadmap in Russia
• 2.5 What to Expect in 2007-2008

3. Regulatory Environment

• 3.1 Current BWA Regulation in Russia
  • 3.1.1 2.3 GHz band
  • 3.1.2 2.4 GHz band
  • 3.1.3 2.5-2.7 GHz band
  • 3.1.4 3.5 GHz band
  • 3.1.5 5-6 GHz bands
  • 3.1.6 10.5 GHz band
  • 3.1.7 26 GHz and 28 GHz bands
• 3.2 WiMAX Regulation: What to Expect in 2007 -2008
• 3.3 Licensing Overview
  • 3.3.1 Rules regarding licensing of spectrum
  • 3.3.2 Frequency license acquisition process
  • 3.3.3 Licensing rules

4. BWA/WiMAX Service Providers Analysis

• 4.1 Background
• 4.2 Types of Players
• 4.3 WiMAX Strategies
• 4.4 Environmental Model for WiMAX in Russia
• 4.5 BWA Development Map
• 4.6 Top-10 Russian BWA Operators
  • 4.6.1 Golden Telecom
  • 4.6.2 Effortel (Mediaseti and Riss-Telecom)
  • 4.6.3 Enforta (including Art Communications and Netprovodov)
  • 4.6.4 Infoseti
  • 4.6.5 Synterra
  • 4.6.6 Center Telecom
  • 4.6.7 RM Telecom
  • 4.6.8 Flex
  • 4.6.9 Quantum (Prostor Telecom)
  • 4.6.10 ArtX
• 4.7 Potentially Large Players
  • 4.7.1 Comstar-UTS
  • 4.7.2 Summa Telecom
  • 4.7.3 Start Telecom
  • 4.7.4 Gazprom-Media
  • 4.7.5 Novye Telecommunikazii (New Telecommunications)

5. BWA/WiMAX Vendor Analysis

• 5.1 Alcatel-Lucent
• 5.2 Alvarion
• 5.3 Airspan
• 5.4 Aperto Networks
• 5.5 InfiNet Wireless
• 5.6 Motorola
• 5.7 Nateks

6. Market Forecasts 2008- 2012

• 6.1 Russia Federation Forecasts
• 6.2 Russian Regional Forecasts

• Exhibit 1. Russian market structure
• Exhibit 2. Map of Russia and surrounding region
• Exhibit 3. Russian GDP growth, 1999 -2008
• Exhibit 4. Size of Russian telecommunications services market from 2000 to present (US$ billions)
• Exhibit 5. Breakdown of Russian telecom market by service
• Exhibit 6. Forecast of the Russian telecommunication industry, 2007- 2010 (US$ billions)
• Exhibit 7. Internet users and penetration in Russia, 2001 -2010 (% and millions of users)
• Exhibit 8. Russian mobile subscriber base, 2000 -2007 (millions of registered SIM cards and penetration in %)
• Exhibit 9. Statistics characterizing Russian mobile industry
• Exhibit 10. Russian mobile subscribers in major metropolitan areas
• Exhibit 11. 3G license information
• Exhibit 12. Broadband and Internet penetration
• Exhibit 13. PC sales in Russia
• Exhibit 14. Percentages for various Internet access locations, 1H 2007
• Exhibit 15. Internet growth in Russia from 2001 to 2010 (millions of users and %)
• Exhibit 16. Leaders in broadband market share in Moscow
• Exhibit 17. Subscriber counts for leading broadband providers
• Exhibit 18. Percentages of access technologies in Moscow and Russia
• Exhibit 19. Internet and broadband pe netration in Moscow and Russia
• Exhibit 20. Parameters of typical cable service offerings
• Exhibit 21. Subscriber counts of major ADSL providers
• Exhibit 22. ADSL tariffs in Russia
• Exhibit 23. Tariffs on mobile Internet access
• Exhibit 24. Most popular satellite Internet services in Russia
• Exhibit 25. Golden Telecom subscriber base and foothold, 1H 2007
• Exhibit 26. Stream subscription base, 2003 -2007 (thousands)
• Exhibit 27. Revenue growth for Svyazinvest' s companies
• Exhibit 28. Major Russian BWA/WiMAX projects
• Exhibit 29. Deployment of Russian BWA/WiMAX networks since 2002
• Exhibit 30. Russian deployment of commercial BWA/WiMAX networks (percentage by city size)
• Exhibit 31. Russian deployment of BWA/WiMAX networks (percentage by macroregion)
• Exhibit 32. Russian deployment of BWA/WiMAX networks (average per city size)
• Exhibit 33. Volume of Russian BWA/WiMAX equipment market (US$ millions)
• Exhibit 34. Russian BWA/WiMAX subscriber counts
• Exhibit 35. Top 20 Russian regions in income per capita and gros s regional product
• Exhibit 36. Russian BWA/WiMAX operators in the 3.5 MHz band
• Exhibit 37. Spectrum allocation within the 5 GHz band
• Exhibit 38. Maximum BWA/WiMAX transmitter power (dBWt), by frequency and city size
• Exhibit 39. Maximum BWA/WiMAX BS and CPE power (dBWt), by frequency and city size
• Exhibit 40. Maximum BWA/WiMAX BS coverage radius (km), by frequency and city size
• Exhibit 41. Russian companies that are members of the WiMAX Forum
• Exhibit 42. Companies with the largest license coverage
• Exhibit 43. License distribution by frequency range
• Exhibit 44. Number of subscribers at top-10 operators
• Exhibit 45. BWA/WiMAX pricing plans offered by Mediaseti
• Exhibit 46. Cities in Enforta' s footprint
• Exhibit 47. Map of Enforta' s footprint
• Exhibit 48. Estimated distribution of Enforta' s clientele, by location and network origin
• Exhibit 49. Enforta' s projected revenue growth
• Exhibit 50. Breakdown of Enforta' s subscribers, by user type
• Exhibit 51. BWA/WiMAX pricing plans offered by Art Communicati ons, residential
• Exhibit 52. Infoseti top management
• Exhibit 53. Confirmed regions where Infoseti holds frequency licenses
• Exhibit 54. Bandwidth held by I nfoseti and its subsidiaries
• Exhibit 55. Status of Synterra BWA projects
• Exhibit 56. Synterra tariffs on Moscow market
• Exhibit 57. Regions of presence of Center Telecom
• Exhibit 58. Revenue breakdown of Center Telecom, 2006 - 2007 (US$ millions)
• Exhibit 59. Center Telecom' s network deployment by region
• Exhibit 60. BWA tariffs of RM Telecom
• Exhibit 61. Flex' s coverage of Moscow region
• Exhibit 62. Data services offered by Flex
• Exhibit 63. Regions where Quantum ho lds licenses
• Exhibit 64. Quantum revenue, 2005 - 2007 (US$ millions)
• Exhibit 65. Comparison of Quantum' s pricing between May 2006 and October 2007
• Exhibit 66. Cities where Quantum has a BWA presence
• Exhibit 67. Quantum customer categories and their typical bandwidth requirements
• Exhibit 68. Footprint of ArtX network in Moscow region
• Exhibit 69. Current tariffs of ArtX
• Exhibit 70. Comstar-UTS organizational structure
• Exhibit 71. Comstar-UTS subscriber and revenue data for various services
• Exhibit 72. Regions where Comstar -UTS obtained WiMAX frequency licenses
• Exhibit 73. Start Telecom license coverage map
• Exhibit 74. Selected offerings of Novye Telecommunikazii
• Exhibit 75. Share of deployed Russian commercial BWA/WiMAX networks, by vendor
• Exhibit 76. Major BWA/WiMAX equipment available in Russia
• Exhibit 77. The largest BWA networks and their strategic vendors
• Exhibit 78. Alvarion sales trend and breakdown
• Exhibit 79. Major clients and end -users of BreezeNET
• Exhibit 80. Major clients and end -users of BreezeAccess
• Exhibit 81. Major clients and end -users of WalkAir
• Exhibit 82. Breakdown of Alvarion' s deployed commercial networks by fr equency
• Exhibit 83. Airspan revenue, 2002- 2008
• Exhibit 84. Airspan equipment
• Exhibit 85. Equipment currently offered by Aperto in Russia
• Exhibit 86. System integrators/resellers for Aperto
• Exhibit 87. Aperto' s most significant projects in Russia
• Exhibit 88. Distribution of InfiNet deployed networks by macro region (commercial networks only)
• Exhibit 89. Operators/ISPs using InfiNet equipment
• Exhibit 90. Nateks product line
• Exhibit 91. Nateks clients
• Exhibit 92. Annual BWA/WiMAX CPE shipment forecast, 2008 - 2012 (in units)
• Exhibit 93. Accumulated CPE installed base, 2008 - 2012 (in units)
• Exhibit 94. CPE average selling price forecast, 2008- 2012 (in US$)
• Exhibit 95. Base station shipment forecast, 2008 - 2012
• Exhibit 96. Base station average selling price forecast, 2008 - 2012 (US$)
• Exhibit 97. BWA and WiMAX equipment market forecast, 2008 - 2012
• Exhibit 98. Accumulated annual BWA/WiMAX equipment market size forecast, 2008- 2012 (US$)
• Exhibit 99. WiMAX penetration forecast, 2008- 2012
• Exhibit 100. Shipment split by standard, 2008 - 2012
• Exhibit 101. WiMAX equipment forecast, 2008 - 2012 (in units)
• Exhibit 102. WiMAX equipment market size forecast, 2008 - 2012 (in units)
• Exhibit 103. BWA and WiMAX equipment market size forecast, 2008 - 2012 (in $)
• Exhibit 104. Equipment shipments by frequency band, 2008- 2012 (in %)
• Exhibit 105. Equipment shipments by frequency band, 2008- 2012 (in US$)
• Exhibit 106. Map of Russian regions, with potential BWA/WiMAX market percentage
• Exhibit 107. Cumulative BWA and WiMAX subscriber forecast by region, 2008 - 2012
• Exhibit 108. Gross Product for Russian macroregions, 2004 - 2007 (US$ millions)
• Exhibit 109. Gross Product of Central macroregion, 2005 - 2007 (US$ millions)
• Exhibit 110. Gross Product of North-West macroregion, 2005- 2007 (US$ millions)
• Exhibit 111. Gross Product of South macroregion, 2005 - 2007 (US$ millions)
• Exhibit 112. Gross Product of Volga macroregion, 2005 - 2007 (US$ millions)
• Exhibit 113. Gross Product of Ural macroregion, 2005 - 2007 (US$ millions)
• Exhibit 114. Gross Product of Siberia macroregion, 2005 - 2007 (US$ millions)
• Exhibit 115. Gross Product of Far East macroregion, 2005 - 2007 (US$ millions)