Americans have a love-hate relationship with dieting and exercise. They purchase millions of diet books and invest in gym memberships and exercise equipment but the number of calories they consume continues to rise. The majority of U.S. adults and 15% of U.S. children are overweight or obese. In addition, many illnesses that can be mitigated with diet and exercise, such as diabetes, heart disease, and hypertension, have become more prevalent. Low fat dietary guidelines and diet programs, focused on reducing fat intake, were popular through the 1980s and into the 1990s. Their introduction and popularity, however, mirror a period of rising growth rates for obesity, now at epidemic levels.
Through the 1990s, as the low fat diets failed to prevent weight gain, low carbohydrate diets, popularized by Dr. Robert Atkins and originally frowned upon by the medical establishment, began to earn millions of adherents and gain credibility. Within this context, Americans have embraced the promise of the low carb lifestyle. According to Mintel's exclusive consumer research, 40% of the U.S. adult population, or an estimated 83.6 million adults report that they have reduced their carbohydrate intake. This potential market is comprised of 7% or 14.6 million U.S. adults who are currently on a low carb diet. It also includes 33% or 69 million U.S. adults who are carb aware (e.g. they are not officially on a low carb diet but have cut down on their sugar and carb intake).
Eating habits and perceptions of carbohydrates have begun to change. Consumers report that they are eating less pasta and potatoes and consuming more meat, seafood, and poultry. However, unit sales data has shifted by only a few percentage points for many high carb products. It remains to be seen whether consumers have fundamentally changed their eating habits for the long run or whether they will abandon low carb products in favor of the next best diet to come along. However, there is ample evidence to encourage food manufacturers, retailers and restaurateurs to include low carb products in their product portfolios.
In this report Mintel has not sought to provide a market size for the Low Carb market. Rather, this report focuses on an understanding of key food and beverage products which would likely be significantly impacted by the low carb trend (i.e., bread, potatoes, cheese, eggs, etc.). Because the low carb trend is relatively new to most consumers, providing a market size and understanding of the direct impact of this 'diet' is not possible at this stage (for most products). As a result, Mintel presents sales and unit data on key categories which have begun to experience changes. Although direct correlation cannot be made to the changes in some of these categories, it is believed that the low carb trend has played a significant role and will increasingly impact certain industries.
In addition, this report highlights the changing nature of consumer eating habits, as they pertain to a low carb lifestyle (whether consumers report a change in eating certain foods). The report also informs readers of consumer attitudes toward issues relating to the low carb lifestyle, such as incidence of being on a low carb diet officially versus cutting down on carbs (and which demographic groups are most likely to be on a low carb diet), why low carb diets are chosen, how consumers feel about staying on low carb diets long-term, as well as other related issues that enable companies to understand how consumers are reacting to this trend.
For the purposes of this report, the term "Low Carb" has been used as self-defined by manufacturer or marketer. This generally includes products that have fewer carbs than their normal carb counterparts, including low carb, reduced carb, etc. The FDA has not yet officially defined these terms but expects to do so in 2005.
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