Breakfast Foods: Volume 1 - The Marketplace - US - November 2004

Contents

INTRODUCTION AND ABBREVIATIONS

• Introduction
• Other relevant reports
• Definition
• Abbreviations
• Terms

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• A $23 billion market
• Where did the time go?
• Take it on the road...
• ...and make it easy!
• Looking for alternatives to fit a diet lifestyle
• Catering to kids, the markets future
• A highly segmented market...
• Supermarkets are the key distributor
• The future of breakfast foods

MARKET DRIVERS

• Not enough time
• Figure 1: Attitudes towards daily time pressure, August 2003
• Competition from faster food
• Eating on the go
• Figure 2: Total estimated passenger automobiles miles driven, 1998-2002
• Not enough skill
• Figure 3: Food preparation habits, by age, February 2004
• The effects of the low carb trend
• Children & breakfast
• Figure 4: U.S. population projections, by age, 2000-2010
• Children and obesity
• Figure 5: Incidence of being overweight, 6-19 year olds, 1976-2000
• Graph 1: Percentage of overweight children and young adults, 1976-2000
• Character licensing and foods for kids
• Women & breakfast

MARKET SIZE & TRENDS

• Figure 6: FDM sales of breakfast foods, at current and constant prices, 1999-2004
• Graph 2: Trends in FDM sales of breakfast foods, at current and constant prices, 1999-2004

MARKET SEGMENTATION

• Overview
• Figure 7: FDM sales of breakfast foods, by product type, 2002 and 2004
• Graph 3: FDM sales of breakfast foods, by segment, 2004
• Cereal
• Figure 8: FDM sales of cereal, 1999-2004
• Cereal sales by segment
• Figure 9: FDM sales of cereal, by type, 2002 and 2004
• Breakfast meats
• Figure 10: FDM sales of breakfast meats, 1999-2004
• Breakfast meats sales by segment
• Figure 11: FDM sales of breakfast meats, by type, 2002 and 2004
• Yogurt and yogurt drinks
• Figure 12: FDM sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, 1999-2004
• Yogurt sales by segment
• Figure 13: FDM sales of yogurt, by type, 2002 and 2004
• Eggs and egg substitutes
• Figure 14: FDM sales of eggs and egg substitutes, 1999-2004
• Eggs sales by segment
• Figure 15: FDM sales of eggs and egg substitutes, by type, 2002 and 2004
• Breakfast pastries
• Figure 16: FDM sales of breakfast pastries, 1999-2004
• Breakfast pastry sales by segment
• Figure 17: FDM sales of breakfast pastries, by type, 2002 and 2004
• Frozen/refrigerated breakfast foods
• Figure 18: FDM sales of frozen/refrigerated breakfast foods, 1999-2004
• Breakfast breads
• Figure 19: FDM sales of breakfast breads, 1999-2004
• Refrigerated/frozen breakfast dough
• Figure 20: FDM sales of refrigerated/frozen breakfast dough, 1999-2004
• Shelf-stable breakfast foods
• Figure 21: FDM sales of shelf-stable breakfast foods, 1999-2004
• Breakfast baking mixes
• Figure 22: FDM sales of breakfast baking mixes, 1999-2004

SUPPLY STRUCTURE

• FDM SALES BY MANUFACTURER AND BRAND
  • Cereal and cereal bars
  • Figure 23: FDM sales of cereal and cereal bars, by manufacturer, 2003 and 2004*
  • Figure 24: FDM sales of cereal and cereal bars, by manufacturer and brand, 2003 and 2004*
  • Breakfast meats
  • Figure 25: FDM sales of breakfast meat, by manufacturer, 2003 and 2004*
  • Figure 26: FDM sales of breakfast meat, by manufacturer and brand, 2003 and 2004*
  • Yogurt and yogurt drinks
  • Figure 27: FDM sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by manufacturer and brand, 2003 and 2004*
  • Eggs and egg substitutes
  • Figure 28: FDM sales of eggs and egg substitutes, by manufacturer and brand, 2003 and 2004*
  • Breakfast pastries
  • Figure 29: FDM sales of breakfast pastries, by manufacturer, 2003 and 2004*
  • Figure 30: FDM sales of breakfast pastries, by manufacturer and brand, 2003 and 2004
  • Frozen/refrigerated breakfast foods
  • Figure 31: FDM sales of frozen/refrigerated breakfast foods, by manufacturer, 2003 and 2004*
  • Figure 32: FDM sales of frozen/refrigerated breakfast foods, by manufacturer and brand, 2003 and 2004*
  • Breakfast breads
  • Figure 33: FDM sales of breakfast breads, by manufacturer and brand, 2003 and 2004*
  • Refrigerated/frozen dough
  • Figure 34: FDM sales of refrigerated/frozen dough, by manufacturer and brand, 2003 and 2004
  • Shelf-stable breakfast foods
  • Figure 35: FDM sales of shelf-stable breakfast foods, by manufacturer and brand, 2003 and 2004*
  • Breakfast baking mixes
  • Figure 36: FDM sales of breakfast baking mixes, by manufacturer and brand, 2003 and 2004
• MAJOR COMPANIES AND BRANDS
  • Kelloggs
  • General Mills
  • Quaker Oats Company (PepsiCo)
  • Kraft
  • Hormel
  • Bob Evans
  • ConAgra
  • Dannon
  • Stonyfield Farm
  • Egglands Best (Cal-Maine Foods)
  • Rose Acre Farms
  • Grupo Bimbo (George Weston/Bestfoods)
  • Interstate Bakeries
  • McKee Food Corp.
  • Nestle
  • Sara Lee
  • Pinnacle Foods
  • Masterfoods USA (formerly Mars, Inc.)
  • Krispy Kreme

ADVERTISING & PROMOTION

• Major manufacturers and brands
• Kelloggs
• 2004
• 2003
• General Mills
• 2004
• 2003
• Kraft
• ConAgra
• Dannon
• Stonyfield Farm
• Grupo Bimbo
• Nestle
• Sara Lee Corporation
• Krispy Kreme

RETAIL DISTRIBUTION

• Introduction
• Figure 37: FDM sales of breakfast foods, by channel, 2002 and 2004
• Supermarkets
• Figure 38: Supermarket sales of breakfast foods, at current and constant prices, 1999-2004
• Supermarket operating data
• Figure 39: Top supermarket operating statistics, latest fiscal year-end
• Figure 40: Percentage change from latest fiscal year-end versus year prior
• The role of Wal-Mart
• Graph 4: Wal-Mart sales, 1993-2003

FUTURE & FORECAST

• FUTURE TRENDS
  • Fewer children
  • Figure 41: Projected growth in number of households with children, 1998-2008
  • Diet trends and health concerns
  • Trans fat labeling
  • The future of low-carb diets
  • Further development of convenient options
• MARKET FORECAST
  • Overview
  • Figure 42: Forecast of FDM sales of breakfast foods, at current and constant prices, 2004-2009
  • Graph 5: Forecast of FDM sales of breakfast foods, at current and constant prices, 2004-2009
  • Cereal and cereal bars
  • Figure 43: Forecast of FDM sales of cereal and cereal bars, at current and constant prices, 2004-2009
  • Breakfast meats
  • Figure 44: Forecast of FDM sales of breakfast meats, at current and constant prices, 2004-2009
  • Yogurt and yogurt drinks
  • Figure 45: Forecast of FDM sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at current and constant prices, 2004-2009
  • Eggs and egg substitutes
  • Figure 46: Forecast of FDM sales of eggs and egg substitutes, at current and constant prices, 2004-2009
  • Breakfast pastries
  • Figure 47: Forecast of FDM sales of breakfast pastries, at current and constant prices, 2004-2009
  • Forecast factors

APPENDIX: TRADE ASSOCIATIONS

NEW PRODUCT BRIEFS

• General Mills: Capn Crunchs Swirled Berries Cereal
• S.B. Thomas: Thomas Hearty Grains Honey Wheat English Muffins
• Sara Lee Foods: Jimmy Dean Ham & Cheese Croissant Sandwiches
• U.S. Mills: Erewhon Organic Instant Oatmeal Variety Pack
• General Mills: Yoplait Nouriche Light Breakfast Smoothies
• Johnsonville Foods: Johnsonville Heat & Serve Vermont Maple Syrup Breakfast Sausage
• Pinnacle Foods Group: Lenders Low-Carb Plain Bagels
• Kellogg USA: Kelloggs Pop-Tarts Incrediberry Blast Toaster Pastries
• Nestle USA: Nestle Carnation Carb Conscious Ready-to-Drink Instant Breakfast

APPENDIX: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

• Consumer Research
• Sampling & Weighting
• Presentation & Definition
• Further Analysis
• Trade Research
• Informal trade research
• Formal trade research
• Desk & Internet Research
• Sources
• Definitions
• Forecasts

APPENDIX: WHAT IS MINTEL?

• Mintel Reports
• Global New Products Database
• ComperemediaR
• Mintel Services
• POS+
• Mintel Consultancy