Potatoes - UK - March 2007

Table of Contents

• Issues in the Market
• Key themes in the report
• Definition
• Abbreviations
• Market in Brief
• Weather is a key determinant
• Posh spud
• Potatoes slip out of fashion
• Food ' conscience' on the radar
• Health ups and downs
• Who' s learning from who?
• Pulling out the stops in 2006
• What does the future hold for potatoes?
• Internal Market Environment
• Key Points
• Changing habits
  • Figure 1: Changing consumption habits, October 2006
• Losing one potato per week
• Clinging to convenience
• Couch potato image does no favours
• Harvesting climate change
• Beauty and the Beast
• Sustainability -- the ' triple bottom line'
• Varieties shift with the climate
• Broader Market Environment
• Key Points
  • Figure 2: Summary of macro trends in the UK potato market, 2006
• Making a fashion statement
• Strengths and Weaknesses
• Strengths
• Weaknesses
• Competitive Context
• Key Points
• Competitors represent no real cause for concern
  • Figure 3: Retail value of competitors to potatoes, 2006
• Out of fashion
  • Figure 4: Changes in per capita consumption, 2004/5
• Consumers flirt with exotics
• Doing the thinking for consumers
• Benefiting from ' backlash'
  • Figure 5: Retail value of ready meals and convenience potatoes, 2006 (est)
• Opportunities from simplicity
• Market Value and Forecast
• Key points
• Strong long term trends
  • Figure 8: Market size and forecast retail sales of potatoes, by value, 2001-11
• Understanding erratic market values
• What went on in 2004?
• The legacy of a hot summer in 2006 -- lowest harvest in 10 years
  • Figure 9: UK retail value sales of potatoes, by sector, 2006
• Storage cupboard trends
• Future trends
• Health -- a battle on two fronts
• Fragmentation goes hand in hand with education
• Market forecast
• Segment Performance
• Key Points:
• Fresh pre-packed potatoes
  • Figure 10: UK retail sales of pre-packed fresh produce, by value, 2003-06
• The workhorse
• Fresh loose potatoes
  • Figure 11: UK retail sales of loose fresh produce, by value, 2003-06
• Loose collapses
• Fresh by type
  • Figure 12: UK volume share of pre-packed and loose fresh produce, by type, 2006
• Totally different markets
  • Figure 13: UK value share of pre-packed and loose fresh produce, by type, 2006
• New versus bakers
• Frozen chips
  • Figure 14: UK retail sales of frozen chips, by value, 2003-06
• A perception issue
• Frozen potatoes
  • Figure 15: UK retail sales of frozen potatoes, by value, 2003-06
• Consumer backlash evident
  • Figure 16: Frozen potato product sectors, by value, 2006
• Repertoire appeal
• Fresh prepared potatoes
  • Figure 17: UK retail sales of fresh prepared potatoes (not cooked), by value, 2003-06
• Stop-start growth
• Chilled convenience potatoes
  • Figure 18: UK retail sales of chilled convenience potatoes, by value, 2003-06
• Meteoric and still growing
• Dehydrated potatoes
  • Figure 19: UK retail sales of dehydrated potatoes, by value, 2003-06
• Brand kudos counts
• Canned potato
  • Figure 20: UK retail sales of canned potatoes, by value, 2003-06
• Companies and Brands
• Key Points
• Complex and fragmented
  • Figure 21: Principle suppliers across the potato market, 2006
• Fresh and chilled potato suppliers
• Albert Bartlett and Sons Ltd
• Branston Limited
• Fenmarc Produce Limited
• Greenvale AP, Greenvale Foods Limited (Produce Investment)
• Hitchen Foods Limited (part of Bakkavor)
• QV Foods Ltd
• Simply Fresh Foods Limited
• Taypack Potatoes Limited
• Frozen potato
  • Figure 22: Market share of the frozen sector by manufacturer, 2004-06
• Birds Eye (Permira)
• Heinz Frozen and Chilled Foods Ltd
  • Figure 23: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on Heinz potatoes, 2002-06
• Garden Isle Limited/Lamb Weston Meijer
• McCain Foods (GB) Limited
  • Figure 24: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on McCain potatoes, 2002-06
• Dehydrated potato
• Premier Foods
• Brand Communication and Promotion
• Key Points
• Bumper year in 2006 for fresh potatoes
  • Figure 25: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on fresh potatoes, 2002-06
• Shouting louder
  • Figure 26: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on frozen potatoes, 2003-06
• Other category campaigns
• British Potato Council (BPC)
• Eat in colour
• Channels to Market
• Key Points
• ' Conscience' shopping
  • Figure 27: UK retail sales of potatoes, by outlet type, 2004-06
• Greengrocers lose out to ethics and provenance
• Organic box schemes
• Size and capability
• A fragile relationship
• Fresh and loose
• Move over sweetie
• The Consumer -- Changing Habits
• Key Points
• Convenience a hook to exploit
• Health can break the £5 barrier
  • Figure 28: Summary of demographic skews and lifestyle statements of selected fruit and vegetable shoppers based on weekly spend, 2006
• Losing share of stomach
  • Figure 29: Usage of frozen chips and potato products, 2006
• Fresh produce dominates
  • Figure 30: Types of potatoes bought, October 2006
• Degrees of affluence affect potato preferences
  • Figure 31: Types of potatoes bought by social grade, according to % point +/- average, October 2006
• Wealthy shun convenience
• The age of discovery
• Market mix implications
• Growing up with spuds
  • Figure 32: Types of potatoes bought according to age of children in household, according to % point +/- average, October 2006
• Oven cooking significant for school kids
• Sweet little kids
• The Consumer -- Attitudes to Potatoes
• Key Points
• Cutting carbs
• Figure 33: Attitudes to potatoes, October 2006
• Switching to rice and pasta
  • Figure 34: Attitudes to potatoes, October 2006
• The decision process
• Mandatory requirements
  • Figure 35: Important factors when choosing fresh fruit and vegetables, October 2006
• Un-sung heroes
• Good intentions not always put into practice
• Ethics comes at a price
• Appendix
• Introduction
• Consumer research
• ACORN
• Advertising data
• Broader market environment
  • Figure 39: Trends in household size, 2001-11
  • Figure 40: PDI and consumer expenditure, at current and constant prices, 2001-11
  • Figure 41: Trends and projections in UK population, by age group, 2000-10
  • Figure 42: Working population, by gender, 2001-11
  • Figure 43: UK population, by ethnic group, April 2001
  • Figure 44: UK market for eating out, 2001-06
  • Figure 45: Types of food regularly eaten and occasionally eaten, February 2005
  • Figure 46: Understanding the term ethical foods, March 2006
• Competitive context
  • Figure 47: Retail value of vegetables, 2006
• Market Value and Forecast
  • Figure 48: UK retail sales of potatoes, by value and volume, 2001-06
• Factors incorporated in the forecast
• Segment performance
  • Figure 49: UK retail sales of potatoes, by type and value, 2004-06
  • Figure 50: UK retail sales of fresh potatoes, by value, 2003-06
  • Figure 51: UK average retail price of fresh potatoes, by potato type, 2003-06
  • Figure 52: UK value share of fresh potatoes, by potato type, 2003-06
  • Figure 53: UK average price of fresh potatoes, by potato type and product format, 2003-06
• Brand communication and promotion
• Consumer 1 -- Detailed demographics
  • Figure 54: Agreement with the statement ' I eat a lot of vegetables' , 2002-06
• Spending more
  • Figure 55: Expenditure on fresh vegetables and fresh fruit in the last week, 2002-06
• Shopping source
  • Figure 56: Where main shoppers usually buy their fresh vegetables and fresh fruit, 2002-2006
• Lifestyle statements
  • Figure 57: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements by expenditure on fresh vegetables, 2006
• Frozen chips and potato products
  • Figure 58: Usage of frozen chips and potato products, 2002-2006
• TGI consumption data
  • Figure 59: Usage of frozen chips and potato products, by demographic sub-group, 2006
  • Figure 60: Expenditure on fresh vegetables in the last week, by demographic sub-group, 2006
  • Figure 61: Agreement with the statement ' I eat a lot of vegetables' , by demographic sub-group, 2006
  • Figure 62: Netted types of potatoes purchased, October 2006
  • Figure 63: Netted types of potatoes purchased by types, October 2006
• Consumer 2 -- Detailed Demographics
  • Figure 64: Types of potato purchased, October 2006
  • Figure 65: Types of potato purchased, October 2006
  • Figure 66: Types of potato purchased, October 2006
  • Figure 67: Types of fresh fruit and vegetables bought, October 2006
  • Figure 68: Important factors when choosing fresh fruit and vegetables, October 2006
  • Figure 69: Important factors when choosing fresh fruit and vegetables, October 2006
  • Figure 70: Important factors when choosing fresh fruit and vegetables, October 2006
  • Figure 71: Important factors when choosing fresh fruit and vegetables, October 2006
  • Figure 72: Nets of potatoe types, October 2006
  • Figure 73: Attitudes to fresh fruit and vegetables, October 2006
  • Figure 74: Attitudes to fresh fruit and vegetables, October 2006
  • Figure 75: Attitudes to fresh fruit and vegetables, October 2006
  • Figure 76: Changing consumption habits, October 2006
  • Figure 77: Changing consumption habits, October 2006
• Cross-analyses
  • Figure 78: Netted types of potatoes purchased by import factors when choosing fruit and veg (including potatoes), October 2006
  • Figure 79: Netted types of potatoes purchased by attitudes to fresh fruit and vegetables (including potatoes), October 2006
  • Figure 80: Netted types of potatoes purchased by changing consumption habits, October 2006
• Consumer 3 -- Detailed Demographics
  • Figure 81: Repertoire of unprepared potatoes, October 2006
  • Figure 82: Repertoire of unprepared potatoes by demographics, October 2006
  • Figure 83: Repertoire of prepared potatoes, October 2006
  • Figure 84: Repertoire of prepared potatoes, October 2006
  • Figure 85: Target group spud-dodgers, by demographics sub-group, October 2006
  • Figure 86: Nets of attitudes to potatoes by types purchased, October 2006
  • Figure 87: Nets of attitudes to potatoes by types purchased, October 2006
  • Figure 88: Nets of attitudes to potatoes by types purchased, October 2006
  • Figure 89: Correlation of attitudes to eating fruit and vegetables, by supermarket shop, October 2006
• Supermarket correlations
  • Figure 90: Correlation of important factors when choosing fruit and vegetables, by supermarket shop, October 2006