Morning Goods - UK - July 2007

Table of Contents

• Issues in the Market
• Key themes
• Definition
• Abbreviations
• Market in Brief
• A diverse market enjoys healthy growth
• Health and indulgence are the mantras for success
• Plant bakers dominate supply
• Maple Leaf Foods emerges as leading player
• Advertising expenditure continues to rise
• Future trends
• Consumer findings
• Internal Market Environment
• Key Points
• Industry responds to demand for healthier eating products...
• ...by reducing salt
• ...by using key ingredients
• ...by making healthy eating more palatable
• ...by removing trans fatty acids
• Importance of indulgence should not be underestimated
• Debits and credits
• The relevance of breakfast
• Growth of the café culture -- threat or opportunity?
• Making sure they don' t drop while they shop
• Broader Market Environment
• Key points
• Population trends
  • Figure 1: Trends in UK population by age, 2002-12
• Consumers can afford to trade up
  • Figure 2: Trends in PDI and consumer expenditure, 2002-12
• Single-person households set to grow
  • Figure 3: The changing structure of UK households, 1996-2012
• Working mothers are key consumers
  • Figure 4: Working population of women, 2002-12
• Restrictions on advertising to children
• Seasonality should be embraced
• Raw ingredients subject to price rises
• Strengths and Weaknesses
• Strengths
• Weaknesses
• Competitive Context
• Morning goods face strong competition
  • Figure 5: UK retail sales of products which compete with morning goods, 2002-06
• On-the-go market is already crowded
• Market Value and Forecast
• Key Points
• Morning goods continue to grow
  • Figure 6: UK retail sales of morning goods, by value, 2002-07
• Future trends
  • Figure 7: Forecast of the UK retail sales of morning goods, 2007-12
• Segment Performance
• Key Points
• Plant bakers gradually increase their share
  • Figure 8: UK retail sales of morning goods, by value, by source, 2002-06
  • Figure 9: UK retail sales of rolls, bakery snacks and foreign recipe products*, by value, 2002-06
• Healthier rolls generate growth
  • Figure 10: UK retail value sales of rolls*, by type, 2002-06
• Health eating -- a double edged sword?
• Manufacturers and retailers could do more
• Foreign recipe and fruited products drive growth
  • Figure 11: UK retail sales of bakery snacks and foreign recipe products *, by type, 2002-06
• Transatlantic influence grows
• American muffins given a healthy image
• Brioches take share from croissants
• Fruited products prove popular
• Other bakery snacks vie for share of spend
• Doughnuts enjoying (un)healthy growth
• Indulgence will continue to drive growth
• Crumpet-makers appear confident
• Pancakes prove adaptable
• Frozen -- a small but growing niche
• Free from and functional
• Organic has yet to fulfil its potential
• Market Share
• Key Points
• Own labels lead
  • Figure 12: Brand shares of plant-produced morning goods, by value, 2000-06
• Warburtons goes from strength to strength
• Hovis takes Allied Bakeries forward
• Other brands
• Companies and Brands
• Key Points
• Introduction
• The top three
• Warburtons goes national
• Allied Bakeries focuses on Kingsmill
• Premier Foods gets in on the act
• Other leading suppliers
• Bakehouse
• BakeMark
• Cuisine de France
• Délifrance
• Fine Lady Bakeries
• Fletchers Bakeries
• Greggs
• Inter Link Foods
• Kitchen Range Foods
• Krispy Kreme
• Maple Leaf Foods
• Others
• Brand Communication and Promotion
• Key Points
• Adspend for bread and bakery rises
  • Figure 13: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on bread and bakeries*, 2002-07
• Top three brands dominate spend
  • Figure 14: Spending on main advertising media of bread and bakeries by leading manufacturers, with detail on morning goods, 2002-06
• Channels to Market
• Key Points
• Grocery multiples extend their lead
  • Figure 15: UK retail value sales of morning goods, by type of outlet, 2002-06
• In-store bakeries have room for growth
• Craft bakers benefit from impulse buyers
• Petrol forecourts doing well
• Retailer activity
• Asda
• Co-op
• Marks & Spencer
• Morrisons
• Sainsbury' s
• Tesco
• Waitrose
• The Consumer
• Key Points
• Packed lunches offer potential
• It' s fun to share
• Who' s eating what?
  • Figure 16: Bakery products eaten, April 2007
• Working mothers are enthusiastic consumers
• Bread-based products hold broadest appeal
  • Figure 17: Key consumers of soft bread rolls/baps, crusty rolls, burger buns and bagels, April 2007
• Traditional morning goods are also popular
  • Figure 18: Key consumers of english muffins/crumpets, fruited products, scones and iced buns/chelsea buns, April 2007
• Who buys?
• Who doesn' t?
• North/South divide in Viennoiserie
  • Figure 19: Key consumers of croissants, pains au chocolat and danish pastries, April 2007
• American muffins and doughnuts popular with young and less affluent
  • Figure 20: Key consumers of muffins and doughnuts, April 2007
• Part-baked ready to be taken up market?
• The Consumer -- Attitudes to Morning Goods
• Key Points
• Assessing attitudes
  • Figure 21: Bakery products eaten, April 2007
• In-store bakeries versus craft bakers
• Working mothers keen to spot a bargain
• Health is becoming far more important
• Is demand set to fall?
• Interest in premium NPD should be promising
• It' s a treat
• Brands versus own label
• Appendix
• Introduction
• Consumer research
• ACORN
• Advertising data
• Internal market environment
• Healthy lifestyles
  • Figure 23: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements on health, 2002-06
  • Figure 24: Adults who are trying to slim and frequency of dieting, 2002-06
• Broader market environment
  • Figure 25: Trends in UK population by age, 2002-12
  • Figure 26: Trends in PDI and consumer expenditure, 2002-12
  • Figure 27: Working women by age of own children, 1998-2006
• Consumer 1 -- detailed demographics
  • Figure 28: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements on food and diet, 11-19s, 2002-06
• TGI attitudes
  • Figure 29: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements on food and diet, 2002-06
  • Figure 30: Consumption of selected morning goods by 11-19-year-olds, 2002-06
• Attitudes towards bread
  • Figure 31: Attitudes towards bread, November 2006
  • Figure 32: Agreement with the statement ' I make a conscious effort to eat less bread than I used to' *, November 2006
  • Figure 33: Types of bread purchased, November 2006
• Morning goods
  • Figure 34: Bakery products eaten, April 2007
  • Figure 35: Bakery products eaten, April 2007
  • Figure 36: Bakery products eaten, April 2007
  • Figure 37: Attitudes to morning goods products, April 2007
  • Figure 38: Attitudes to morning goods products, April 2007
  • Figure 39: Attitudes to morning goods products, April 2007
• Repertoire analysis
  • Figure 40: Number of different types of bakery products eaten, April 2007
  • Figure 41: Number of different types of bakery products eaten by demographics, April 2007
• Target groups
  • Figure 42: Clusters by demographics, April 2007
  • Figure 43: Clusters by bakery products eaten, April 2007
  • Figure 44: Clusters by number of different types of bakery products eaten, April 2007
  • Figure 45: Clusters by Q2, April 2007