Lager - UK - June 2007

Table of Contents

• Issues in the Market
• Report themes
• - Wine Retailing -- UK, Retail Intelligence, June 2007
• Market in Brief
• 2006 -- a tough year for lager
• More pressure points
• Active NPD
• Consumers open to new products
• On and off
• A future focused on market value
• Internal Market Environment
• Key points:
• Premiumisation...
  • Figure 1: Agreement with the lifestyle statement ' It' s worth paying extra for good quality beer' , 2000-06
• ...whatever that means
• Authenticity as a premiumisation tool
• Use of production values rudimentary
• More consumers cut down on alcohol to control weight
  • Figure 2: How consumers would go about losing weight, December 2006
• Drinking at home...
  • Figure 3: Agreement with the lifestyle statement ' Most of my drinking is done at home' , 2000-06
• ...but people still enjoy the pub
  • Figure 4: Frequency of visiting pubs/bars for a drink only -- day and evening, 2002-06
• Sponsorship holds up -- but for how long?
• Broader Market Environment
• Key points:
• Smoking ban
• Excise duty
  • Figure 5: UK excise duty rates on beer, 2000-07
• Binge drinking
• Responsible drinking
  • Figure 6: Disagreement with the lifestyle statements on drinking, 2000-06
• Drink/driving on the increase
• Global warming is good news for brewers!
  • Figure 7: Average summer temperature and sunshine hours in the UK, 2000-06
• Increasing incomes aid premiumisation
• Demographic changes turn benign...
• ...but more government health warnings...
• ...and continued advertising concerns
• Nutrition labelling
• Competitive Context
• Key points:
• Cider invades lager' s territory
  • Figure 8: Consumption of beers and ciders in the last 12 months, by type, 2002-06
• Ale sales continue their persistent decline
• Taking on wine
  • Figure 9: Consumption of bottled lagers and wine in the last 12 months, by type, 2002-06
• Going soft
  • Figure 10: UK volume sales of soft drinks, 2001-06
• Strengths and Weaknesses in the Market
• Strengths
• Weaknesses
• Market Value and Forecast
• Key points:
• Downing lager
  • Figure 11: UK retail sales of lager, by volume and value, 2002-07
• The future
• Forecast
  • Figure 12: Market size and forecast of lager, by value, 2002-12
  • Figure 13: Market size and forecast of lager, by volume, 2002-12
• No clear source of reprieve
• Value holding, volume declining
  • Figure 14: Indexed growth of lager, by value and volume, 2002-12
• Factors incorporated in the forecast
• Segment Performance
• Key points:
• Standard lagers to be squeezed
  • Figure 15: UK retail sales of lager, by strength classification, by volume, 2002-07
• Bottled up
  • Figure 16: UK retail sales of lager, by type of packaging, by volume, 2002-06
  • Figure 17: UK retail sales of lager, by type of packaging, by value, 2002-06
• Bottled premium
• On-trade/off-trade
• PET niche
• Product positioning
  • Figure 18: Retailer prices of selected lagers, 2007
• Lower-alcohol lagers
• Standard lager
• Premium lager
• Occasional lagers
• Connoisseur lagers
• Market Share
• Key points:
• Majors face challenges from other brands
  • Figure 19: UK lager market volume shares, by major brewers, 2002-06
• Winners
• Losers
• Own-brands low
• Brand summary
  • Figure 20: Top ten lager brands, by value, 2002-06
• Companies and Products
• Key points:
• The major brewers
• Scottish & Newcastle (S&N)
  • Figure 21: S&N' s brand portfolio, UK lager market, 2007
• Coors Brewers Ltd (CBL)
  • Figure 22: Coors Brewers Ltd brand portfolio, UK lager market, 2007
• InBev UK Ltd
  • Figure 23: InBev' s brand portfolio, UK lager market, 2007
• Carlsberg UK
  • Figure 24: Carlsberg' s brand portfolio, UK lager market, 2007
• Anheuser-Busch
  • Figure 25: Anheuser-Busch' s brand portfolio, UK lager market, 2007
• Other companies
• Heineken
• Miller Brands UK Ltd
• Wells & Young' s
• Cobra Beer Ltd
• Tiger Beer Ltd
• Budweiser Budvar
• Brand Communication and Promotion
• Key points:
• Promotional spend drops in 2006
  • Figure 26: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on lager, 2002-06
  • Figure 27: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on lager, by media type, 2002-06
  • Figure 28: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on lager, by top 15 advertisers, 2002-06
• Only S&N maintains promotional spend
• Smaller brands boost spending
• Sponsorship
  • Figure 29: Leading UK sports sponsors, by total value of major sponsorship investments, 2006
• Channels to Market
• Key points:
• Long-term shift to off-trade continues
  • Figure 39: UK lager market, on- versus off-trade split, by % value, 2001-07
• On-trade consolidating
  • Figure 40: UK distribution of draught lager in the on-trade, 2002-06
• Grocery multiples extend hold on off-trade
  • Figure 41: UK distribution of canned and bottled lager in the off-trade, 2002-06
• Buying power
• The Consumer -- Drinking Behaviour
• Key points:
• Lager has plenty of potential
  • Figure 42: Consumer lager drinking habits, February 2007
• Who are the regular drinkers?
  • Figure 43: Profile of regular lager drinkers, by gender, age and socio-economic group, February 2007
• Who are the occasional drinkers?
  • Figure 44: Profile of occasional lager drinkers, by gender, age and socio-economic group, February 2007
• Current user target groups
• Converting non-users
• The Consumer -- Attitudes Towards Lager
• Key points:
• Attitudes towards lager
  • Figure 45: Consumer attitudes towards lager, February 2007
• Brand loyalty predominates
• Regular users show high brand loyalty
  • Figure 46: Consumer attitudes towards lager, by drinking habits, February 2007
• Occasional users need a lower-alcohol drink
  • Figure 47: Profile of consumers who prefer lower-alcohol lagers and who are put off by the strength of some lagers, by gender, age and socio-economic group, February 2007
• Low/no users' attitudes towards lager
  • Figure 48: Consumer attitudes towards lager, by consumers who generally choose an alternative drink, February 2007
  • Figure 49: Profile of consumers who tend to drink the lager their friends are having, by gender and age, February 2007
• Appendix
• Introduction
• ACORN
• Advertising data
• Abbreviations
• Internal market environment
  • Figure 56: Agreement with the lifestyle statement ' It' s worth paying extra for good quality beer' , 2000-06
  • Figure 57: Incidence of being overweight or obese among men and women, by age group, 1994 and 2003
  • Figure 58: Agreement with lifestyle statements on drinking, 2000-06
  • Figure 59: Agreement with selected attitudinal statements, 2002-06
  • Figure 60: Frequency of visiting pubs/bars for a drink only -- day and evening, 2002-06
• Broader Market Environment
  • Figure 61: Structure of the UK population, by age and gender, 2002-12
  • Figure 62: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2002-12
• Competitive Context
  • Figure 63: Consumption of bottled lagers and wine in the last 12 months, by type, 2002-06
• Consumer 1 -- Drinking behaviour
  • Figure 64: Consumer lager drinking habits, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, age of own children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, region, ACORN category, media usage, commercial TV viewing, supermarket used, size of household and car ownership, February 2007
• Consumer 2: Attitudes towards Lager
  • Figure 65: Consumer attitudes towards lager, by drinking habits, February 2007
  • Figure 66: Consumer attitudes towards lager, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, age of own children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, region, ACORN category, media usage, commercial TV viewing, supermarket used, size of household and car ownership, February 2007
  • Figure 67: Consumer lager drinking habits, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, age of own children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, region, ACORN category, media usage, commercial TV viewing, supermarket used, size of household and car ownership, February 2007
• Word association
  • Figure 68: Words consumers associate with lager, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, age of own children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, region, ACORN category, media usage, commercial TV viewing, supermarket used, size of household and car ownership, February 2007
  • Figure 69: Words consumers associate with lager, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, age of own children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, region, ACORN category, media usage, commercial TV viewing, supermarket used, size of household and car ownership, February 2007
  • Figure 70: Words consumers associate with lager, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, age of own children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, region, ACORN category, media usage, commercial TV viewing, supermarket used, size of household and car ownership, February 2007
  • Figure 71: Words consumers associate with lager, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, age of own children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, region, ACORN category, media usage, commercial TV viewing, supermarket used, size of household and car ownership, February 2007
  • Figure 72: Positive repertoire, by words associated with lager, February 2007
  • Figure 73: Number of positive adjectives, by drinking habits, February 2007
  • Figure 74: Number of negative adjectives, by drinking habits, February 2007
  • Figure 75: Number of positive adjectives, by attitudes towards lager, February 2007
  • Figure 76: Number of negative adjectives, by attitudes towards lager, February 2007