Abstract
Lunchtime eating is undergoing a rapid distributional shift, as new players, including supermarkets, convenience stores, and fast-casual restaurant chains chip away at the traditional dominance of the quick-service restaurant sector. The rapid growth of the fast-casual sector, combined with other market forces, has led to broad changes in consumer expectations for the quality and freshness of prepared lunches. Traditional quick-service restaurants are responding with improvements to their menus, décor, and amenities, including the addition of healthier, organic, and natural menu items.
Opportunities for growth in the lunchtime market are limited by slow population growth for groups outside of the over-55 demographic. However, certain time-strapped consumer groups, including 18 to 35 year olds and consumers with children in the household, continue to offer growth potential for vendors who can deliver convenience, speed of service, quality, and value.
This report identifies key developments that will shape the future of the lunch market and suggests ways that vendors can reposition and adapt to make the most of expected changes. For example, interest in ethnic foods and bolder flavors continues to grow. National restaurant chains that continue to add new flavors and more diverse cuisines to their menus will find themselves well positioned for a future market including more immigrants from new parts of the world, as well as an increasingly sophisticated American palate.
This comprehensive study of the market identifies recent trends, especially those that offer opportunities for future growth. Examples include the growth of timesaving services such as curbside pickup, and the proliferation of “smaller appetite” menus, which is an attempt to increase restaurant traffic by bringing in more diners on limited budgets and diets (as well as snackers).
The heart of the report is Mintel' s exclusive consumer research and analysis, which explores behavior, attitudes, and preferences related to lunch. This analysis identifies differing lunchtime eating patterns, from those who pack their lunches regularly to those who purchase lunch often (“frequent diners”). Young adults (18-34), who exhibit the most flexibility in their lunchtime eating behavior, present a substantial opportunity for vendors who can offer quality, low-cost lunch options that fit their busy lifestyles.
Consumers interested in “green” eating were studied in depth and profiled by age, gender, and race/ethnicity. Interest in healthy eating, lack of time to eat lunch, and interest in discounts, coupons, and lunch specials are among the other factors that were analyzed and found to vary among such demographic characteristics as age, gender, ethnicity, and household income.
For the purposes of this report, lunch is defined as any meal eaten during the middle of the day, usually between the hours of 11 am and 3 pm.
The 2005 report addressed workday lunches only. This report covers all lunchtime eating, with more emphasis on weekday lunches. This report focuses on adult (18+) consumers, although the role of children influencing lunch choices is analyzed in depth.
The analysis in this report focuses primarily on lunches purchased from restaurants, supermarkets, convenience stores, and similar retail vendors of prepared foods. Workplace and school cafeterias are included in the market size data, and general trends with respect to cafeterias are also discussed.
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