Cakes and Pies - US - October 2007

Table of Contents

• Scope and Themes
• What you need to know
• Definition
• Resources for consumer survey data
• Abbreviations and terms
• Abbreviations
• Terms
• Executive Summary
• The bottom line
• Are "perfect portions" from in-store bakeries next?
• Weight Watchers success and its imminent challenge
• ISBs control nearly two thirds of all sales but 26% buy from independent bakeries
• George Weston gaining slightly while two largest players slip
• Healthier cakes could resonate particularly well among Asian consumers
• The future could bring cakes/pies designed for men
• Market expects market to reach $6.7 billion by 2012
• Market Drivers
• Americans: Fit or fat
• Clearly a market for indulgent treats
  • Figure 1: Percentage of population who are overweight or obese, 20-74 years of age, 1988-2004
• But many seeking to get fit--and, are cutting sweets
  • Figure 2: Whether frequently eat sweets and whether feel guilty after eating sweets, April 2000-March 2001, January-September 2004 and January-October 2006
  • Figure 3: Uncle Wally' s Smart Portion, 2006
  • Figure 4: Tastykake Sensables, 2007
• Specific health issues affect the category
• Trans fats are out...
• ... whole grains are in
• Shifts in U.S. population demand attention
• Aging population affecting consumption of baked goods
  • Figure 5: Items eat when craving something sweet, by age, March 2007
  • Figure 6: Population by age, 2002-12
• More children
  • Figure 7: Households by presence of children, 1995-2005
  • Figure 8: Hostess cupcakes with "Over the Hedge" movie tie-in, 2006
  • Figure 9: Enten-mini' s Tubes, 2007
• Children and health
  • Figure 10: Household usage of snack cakes among those with children in the household, October 2000-September 2001, January-September 2003 and January-October 2006
• Smaller households
  • Figure 11: Households by size, 1995 and 2005
• Endless sweet options pose competition for the market
  • Figure 12: Reasons for not eating ready-to-eat cakes or pies, July 2007
  • Figure 13: Incidence of household consumption of other sweet goods, 2001-06
• Market Size and Trends
• Market size
  • Figure 14: Total U.S. retail sales of cakes and pies, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
• Market trends
• Noteworthy new products
  • Figure 15: New product releases in cakes and pies in U.S.*, 2002-07
  • Figure 16: Weight Watchers Caramel Cakes, 2007
  • Figure 17: Reese' s brownie from Hershey' s, 2006
  • Figure 18: Oreo Cakesters from Kraft, 2007
• New product claims
  • Figure 19: New product claims in cakes and pies in the U.S., 2002-07*
  • Figure 20: Entenmann' s Little Bites 100-calorie packs, 2007
  • Figure 21: Mini Cakes from Wal-Mart, 2006
  • Figure 22: Snoballs from Hostess, 2006
• Market Segmentation
• Introduction
  • Figure 23: U.S. sales of cakes and pies in FDM channels (including in-store bakeries), segmented by type, 2005 and 2007
• In-store bakeries
  • Figure 24: Sales of in-store bakery cakes and pies, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
• Shelf stable cakes and pies
  • Figure 25: FDM sales of shelf stable cakes and pies, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
• Cupcakes and brownies
  • Figure 26: FDM sales of cupcakes and brownies, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
• Cheesecakes
  • Figure 27: FDM sales of cheesecakes, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
• Refrigerated cakes and pies
  • Figure 28: FDM sales of refrigerated cakes and pies, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
• Supply Structure
• Companies and brands
  • Figure 29: FDM manufacturer sales of packaged cakes and pies in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
• Shelf-stable cakes and pies
  • Figure 30: FDM manufacturer brand sales of shelf-stable cakes and pies in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
• Cupcakes and brownies
  • Figure 31: FDM manufacturer brand sales of cupcakes and brownies in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
• Cheesecakes
  • Figure 32: FDM manufacturer brand sales of cheesecakes in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
• Refrigerated cakes and pies
  • Figure 33: FDM manufacturer brand sales of refrigerated cakes and pies in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
• Advertising and Promotion
• Interstate Bakeries Corporation
• Sponsorships
• Movie tie-ins
• New product launch support
• McKee Foods
  • Figure 34: Little Debbie television ad, 2007
• George Weston Bakeries
  • Figure 35: Entenmann' s Ultimate television ad, 2007
• Tasty Baking
• Retail Distribution
• Retail channels at which cakes and pies are bought
  • Figure 36: From where cakes and pies are bought, July 2007
• Sales of packaged cakes/pies by retail channel
  • Figure 37: FDM retail sales of packaged cakes and pies, by channel, 2005 and 2007
• Wal-Mart estimate for entire cakes/pies category
• The Consumer: Household Usage of Snack Cakes
• Summary of this section
• Household consumption of snack cakes
  • Figure 38: Incidence of household consumption of snack cakes, 2001-06
  • Figure 39: Incidence of household consumption of snack cakes, by race/ethnicity, January-October 2006
  • Figure 40: Incidence of household consumption of snack cakes, by educational level of respondent, January-October 2006
  • Figure 41: Incidence of household consumption of snack cakes, by number of people in the household, January-October 2006
• Brands of snack cakes consumed in household
  • Figure 42: Brands of snack cakes eaten in household, January-October 2006
• Amount of snack cakes consumed in household monthly
  • Figure 43: Number of snack cakes eaten in household monthly, by household size, January-October 2006
• The Consumer: Personal Usage of Cakes and Pies
• Summary of section
• Specific types of ready-to-eat cakes and pies eaten
  • Figure 44: Types of ready-to-eat cakes/pies eaten, by gender, July 2007
  • Figure 45: Types of ready-to-eat cakes/pies eaten, by age of respondent, July 2007
  • Figure 46: Types of ready-to-eat cakes/pies eaten, by number of people in the household, July 2007
• The Consumer: Attitudes and Behaviors Regarding Cakes and Pies
• Summary of this section
• The role of "healthy eating" in cake/pie consumption
  • Figure 47: Opinions regarding healthy cakes/pies or indulgent cakes/pies, by key demographics, July 2007
  • Figure 48: Healthier kinds of cakes and pies category users would like to see more of, July 2007
• Opinions of cakes and pies
  • Figure 49: Opinions of cakes and pies, by gender, July 2007
• Future and Forecast
• Decadence and flavor adventures could reach new heights
• Manly cake and pie
  • Figure 50: Luna Tea Cakes, 2006
• Cakes and pies for all drinking and eating occasions
• Market forecast
• Cakes and pies market
  • Figure 51: Forecast of total U.S. retail sales of cakes and pies, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
• In-store bakeries
  • Figure 52: Forecast of U.S. fdm sales of in-store bakery cakes and pies, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
• Shelf stable cakes and pies
  • Figure 53: Forecast of U.S. fdm sales of shelf stable cakes and pies, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
• Cupcakes and brownies
  • Figure 54: Forecast of U.S. fdm sales of cupcakes and brownies, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
• Forecast factors
• Appendix: Trade Associations