Poultry - US - November 2007

Table of Contents

• Scope and Themes
• What you need to know
• Definition
• Sales data methodology
• Resources used for The Consumer sections
• Abbreviations and terms
• Abbreviations
• Terms
• Executive Summary
• Stagnating sales and increased input costs
• Back to the farm: consistent interest in all-natural offerings
• Concern over poultry safety
• Market consolidation
• Supermarket sales strong, but channel migration continues
• Many different approaches to marketing and advertising
• Certain demographics display preference towards poultry
• Turkey needs more marketing outside of traditional holiday periods
• Few breakthrough product releases, packaging innovations prized
• Market Drivers
• Poultry consumption is flat although turkey could be the salvation
  • Figure 1: Poultry consumption, 2005-07
• "All natural" still a relevant claim, brands play a role
• Tyson champions its quality in the mass market
• Premium brands offer an alternative and have added benefit of easing fears
• Targeting the right consumer is key
• Unadulterated products of high interest
  • Figure 2: Poultry attributes that lead to purchase, September 2007
• Cost of feeding chickens continues to rise...
• ...but the cost of chicken at retail has not shown a corresponding increase (yet)
  • Figure 3: Protein sources retail and wholesale prices 2003 to 2008 (est.)
• Consolidation among market leaders is likely to drive increased competition
• Retail channel migration may be bad for the poultry market
• The poultry confidence index
  • Figure 4: Poultry Confidence Index, 2000-05
• Lower supply of poultry, but also lower export demand
• Lack of successful innovation (so far) in the poultry market
• Side item and private label influence
• Market Size and Trends
• Market size
  • Figure 5: Total U.S. retail sales of poultry, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
• Wal-Mart sales
• Market trends
• New product launches by type of storage
  • Figure 6: Number of new poultry products, by type of storage, 2002-07
• New product launches: by claim
  • Figure 7: Top claims for new poultry products, 2002-07
• Market Segmentation
• Introduction
  • Figure 8: Sales of poultry, segmented by type, 2005 and 2007
• Chicken parts
  • Figure 9: Sales of chicken parts, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
• Whole chicken
  • Figure 10: Sales of whole chicken, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
• Other poultry
  • Figure 11: Sales of other poultry, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
• FDM packaged poultry sales: an IRI snapshot
• Overview
  • Figure 12: FDM sales of poultry, segmented by type, 2005 and 2007
• IQF Poultry
  • Figure 13: Sales of IQF poultry, segmented by type, 2005 and 2007
• Supply Structure
• Manufacturer sales
  • Figure 14: Manufacturer sales of poultry in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
• Ready-to-cook (RTC) chicken sales
  • Figure 15: Graph: Share of largest poultry players, based on RTC chicken sales, by production, 2007
• Smaller, independent players have a competitive edge on freshness, but could lose out on economies of scale
• Advertising and Promotion
• Focus on all natural, fresh, healthful and convenience have been key drivers
• Tyson
  • Figure 16: Tyson 100% all natural antibiotic-free chickens
  • Figure 17: Tyson chicken nuggets
  • Figure 18: Tyson trimmed-and-ready chicken
• Perdue
  • Figure 19: Fresh Perdue chicken
  • Figure 20: Perdue perfect portions
• Pilgrim' s Pride
• Jennie-O
  • Figure 21: Jennie-O oven-ready turkey
• In-restaurant promotion could lead to increased retail channel sales
• Packaging is an important differentiator
• Taglines are prominent amongst the major players
• Local producers promote their natural strengths
• Industry associations
• Retail Distribution
• Introduction
  • Figure 22: U.S. retail sales of red meat, fish, and poultry, by retail channel, 2005 and 2007
• Supermarkets
  • Figure 23: U.S. supermarket sales of red meat, fish, and poultry, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
• Mass merchandisers and warehouse clubs
  • Figure 24: U.S. mass merchandiser and warehouse club sales of red meat, fish, and poultry, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
• Other channels
  • Figure 25: U.S. other channels sales of red meat, fish, and poultry, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
• The Consumer
• Summary
• Consumption of poultry products
• Types of meat eaten regularly
  • Figure 26: Types of meat eaten regularly, September 2007
  • Figure 27: How chicken is usually prepared, September 2007
• Consumption of poultry
  • Figure 28: Incidence of different types of poultry consumption, by gender, September 2007
• Household usage of chicken and turkey
  • Figure 29: Household usage of different types of cut/part of chicken and turkey, by type and cut/part, 2001-06
  • Figure 30: Household usage of different types of cut/part of chicken and turkey, by race/ethnicity, January-September 2006
• Household usage of fish and other meat by chicken and turkey users
  • Figure 31: Usage of fish and other meat, by fresh and frozen chicken and turkey users, January-October 2006
• How often poultry eaters eat poultry
  • Figure 32: Purchase of poultry in the past week, September 2007
  • Figure 33: Purchase of poultry in the past week, September 2007, by gender and age, September 2007
  • Figure 34: Purchase of poultry in the past week, by income and race/ethnicity, September 2007
  • Figure 35: Purchase of poultry in the past week, September 2007, by region and presence of children in the household, September 2007
• Where respondents purchased poultry
  • Figure 36: Where poultry was purchased in the past week, September 2007
• Poultry consumption away from home
  • Figure 37: Eating poultry away from home in the past week, September 2007
  • Figure 38: Places where poultry was eaten away from home in the past week, September 2007
• Attitudes towards packaging and safety
  • Figure 39: Attitudes towards poultry packaging and safety, September 2007
• Respondents' perception of issues related to poultry, other types of meat and seafood
  • Figure 40: Perception of specific issues related to poultry, other types of meat and seafood, September 2007
• Age plays an important role
• Types of product attributes that induce purchases
  • Figure 41: Poultry attributes that lead to purchase, September 2007
  • Figure 42: Poultry attributes that lead to purchase, September 2007
• Future and Forecast
• Market forecast
• Poultry market
  • Figure 43: Forecast of total U.S. retail sales of poultry, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
• Chicken parts
  • Figure 44: Forecast of U.S. retail sales of chicken parts, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
• Whole chicken
  • Figure 45: Forecast of U.S. retail sales of whole chicken, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
• Other poultry
  • Figure 46: Forecast of U.S. retail sales of other poultry, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
• Forecast factors
• Increasing production costs will adversely affect manufacturers
• More concentrated brand focus and continued channel migration away from supermarkets is expected to continue
• Increased innovation and improved marketing efforts are needed to drive future sales
• Appendix: Trade Associations