International Hotel Industry - December 2007

Table of Contents

• IntroductionKey points
• Definitions
• Hotel companies
• Key terms and abbreviations
• Data Sources
• Economic Outlook
• Current outlook for GDP growth
• The risk of falling property prices
  • Figure 1: Real GDP, (% change from previous year), 2006-08
• Long-term growth prospects
• Purchasing power parity of little relevance
  • Figure 2: Chinese household income by income bracket, 2006 & 2025
• Consumption to lag overall growth
  • Figure 3: Real private consumption expenditure (% change from previous year), 2006-08
• Interest rates
• Short term
  • Figure 4: Trend & outlook for short-term interest rates*, 2006-08
• Long term
  • Figure 5: Outlook for long-term interest rates, 2007-08
• Surging oil prices
• Exchange rate outlook
  • Figure 6: Outlook for exchange rates (vis à vis the US dollar), 2003-06
  • Figure 7: Average exchange rates against the Euro, 2006-08
• Outlook for spending on travel and tourism to 2017
  • Figure 8: Travel & tourism expenditure worldwide, 2007-17
• Hotel Capacity Worldwide
  • Figure 9: Estimated number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments worldwide, 2001-06
• Africa
  • Figure 10: Trend in the number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in selected African countries, 2002-06
• South Africa
• Americas
• Caribbean
  • Figure 11: Trend in the number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in selected Caribbean destinations, 2002-06
• Central & South America
  • Figure 12: Trend in the number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in selected Latin American countries, 2002-06
• Argentina
• Brazil
  • Figure 13: Hotel and room capacity in Brazil, 2003-06*
• North America
• Canada
  • Figure 14: Capacity breakdown and supply and demand trends for upscale hotels by major Canadian city and province, year ending July 2007
• Mexico
  • Figure 15: Trend in the number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in Mexico, 2002-06
  • Figure 16: Hotel capacity in Mexico by grade, 2005
• US
  • Figure 17: Hotel property/room breakdown by location, rate category and size, 2005
  • Figure 18: Supply growth in the US hotel market, 2004-09*
  • Figure 19: Hotel room pipeline in the US by stage of development, April 2007
  • Figure 20: Hotel room pipeline by category -- number of rooms under construction, December 2004
• Asia-Pacific
• Australia
  • Figure 21: Hotel, motel and serviced apartment room capacity in Australia, December 2006
• China
  • Figure 22: Number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in China, 2000-05
  • Figure 23: Hotels in Mainland China by grade at end 2006
  • Figure 24: Profile of Mainland Chinese hotel sector, 2005
• Hong Kong
  • Figure 25: Hong Kong hotel room supply, 2002-11
• Macao
  • Figure 26: Long-term projection of hotel projects in Macao, 2007
• Japan
  • Figure 27: Number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in Japan, 2001-05
• Thailand
  • Figure 28: Trend in the number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in Thailand, 2001-04
  • Figure 29: Geographical distribution of Thai hotel & guesthouse capacity, 2006
  • Figure 30: Thai hotel & guesthouse capacity by size, 2004 & 2006
• Other East Asian countries
  • Figure 31: Trend in the number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in selected East Asian countries, 2002-06
• South Asia
• India
  • Figure 32: Hotels belonging to the FHRAI, 2002-06
• Future capacity expansion
• Budget hotels
• The long-term outlook
  • Figure 33: New hotel capacity by market segment) projected to enter the market over the period 2006-11, by major urban market
  • Figure 34: New room supply by major Indian destination, 2006-11
• Pakistan and Sri Lanka
  • Figure 35: Trend in the number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in Pakistan & Sri Lanka, 2002-06
• Europe
  • Figure 36: Chain hotel capacity in the 27 EU countries by star grade, 2006-07*
• Alpine region
  • Figure 37: Trend in the number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in Austria & Switzerland, 2002-06
• Switzerland
  • Figure 38: Hotels and health spas according to size of establishment, 2006
  • Figure 39: Swiss hotel and cure establishment by major canton, 2006
• Benelux
  • Figure 40: Trend in the number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in Belgium & the Netherlands, 2002-06
• Eastern Europe
  • Figure 41: Trend in the number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in selected Eastern European countries, 2002-06
• Moscow
  • Figure 42: Russian hotel capacity in the pipeline, 2007
• Eastern Mediterranean
  • Figure 43: Trend in the number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in Eastern Mediterranean countries, 2002-06
• France
  • Figure 44: French hotels by grade, location and affiliation at end 2006
  • Figure 45: French hotel rooms by grade, location and affiliation at end 2006
  • Figure 46: French hotel capacity in the pipeline, 2007
• Germany
  • Figure 47: Breakdown of registered lodging capacity in Germany, July 2007
  • Figure 48: German hotel capacity in the pipeline, 2007
• Italy
  • Figure 49: Italian hotel capacity by region, 2006
  • Figure 50: Italian hotel capacity by grade, 2004
  • Figure 51: Italian hotel capacity in the pipeline, 2007
• Nordic area
  • Figure 52: Trend in the number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in Nordic countries, 2002-06
• Portugal
  • Figure 53: Trend in the number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in Portugal, 2002-06
  • Figure 54: Hotel room capacity by region in Portugal, 2005
• Spain
  • Figure 55: Spanish lodging capacity by principle region, September 2007
  • Figure 56: Breakdown of available hotel capacity by grade, 2002 & 2007
  • Figure 57: Spanish hotel capacity in the pipeline, 2007
• UK
  • Figure 58: Hotels registered with tourist boards in the UK*, 2003/04
• London accommodation supply
  • Figure 59: London hotel supply change by grade, 2002-06
• UK hotel pipeline
  • Figure 60: UK hotel capacity in the pipeline, 2007
• Middle East
  • Figure 61: Trend in the number of rooms in hotels and similar establishments in selected Middle Eastern countries, 2002-06
  • Figure 62: Middle East hotel pipeline by country, 2007-10
• Chain Penetration by Region
  • Figure 63: Estimated branded rooms by region, 2007
• Americas
• Canada
  • Figure 64: Top Three hotel groups in Canada, 2006
  • Figure 65: CHI hotels in Canada by brand, 2007
• Latin America
  • Figure 66: Hotel penetration in Brazil, 2003-06
• Accor
  • Figure 67: Accor' s hotel capacity in Latin America & the Caribbean, by affiliation structure, at end June 2007
  • Figure 68: Accor' s hotel capacity in Latin America & the Caribbean, by brand, at end 2006
• Sol Meliá
  • Figure 69: Sol Meliá hotel properties by country in Latin America and the Caribbean, end 2006CHI
  • Figure 70: CHI hotels by brand in Mexico and Central & South America, 2006
• Atlantica
• Grupo Posadas
  • Figure 71: Geographical distribution of Grupo Posadas hotel capacity by brand, September 2007
  • Figure 72: Distribution of Grupo Posadas hotel capacity by country and type of location, September 2007
• Recent development and pipeline
  • Figure 73: Grupo Posadas' s pipeline by brand and region, September 2007
• US
  • Figure 74: Top 25 hotel brands in the US ranked by number of rooms, March 2007
• The fastest-growing brands
  • Figure 75: The ten fastest rowing hotel brands in the US between March 2006 and March 2007
  • Figure 76: Brand introductions, 2007
  • Figure 77: Brand introductions, 2006
  • Figure 78: Brand introductions, 2005
  • Figure 79: US pipeline of major multi-brand chains by lodging segment, October 2007
• New brands are gaining a following
  • Figure 80: New brand US pipeline, October 2007
• The effects of the ' credit crunch' may be felt in a quarter or two
• Asia
  • Figure 81: Top ten hotel chains in Asia* ranked by number of rooms at end 2006
• China
  • Figure 82: The leading hotel chains in China ranked by rooms, 2007
• Accor
• Hilton
• Hyatt
• InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG)
• Jin Jiang
  • Figure 83: The Jin Jiang upscale pipeline, 2007
• Jinling Hotels & Resorts
• Shangri-La
  • Figure 84: Shangri-La in China, 2006
• Starwood
• Wyndham
• Budget hotel expansion
• India
• Indian Hotels Company/Taj
  • Figure 85: Growth in Taj hotel capacity & revenues, 2004-07
• Taj' s pipeline
  • Figure 86: Taj pipeline: new-builds, 31 March 2007
  • Figure 87: Taj pipeline: management contracts, 31 March 2007
• ITC WelcomGroup
• Leela Hotels
• Oberoi
• Sarovar Hotels & Resorts
• Japan
• IHG' s tie up with ANA hotels yields 12,000 rooms
• JAL Hotels to be spun off
• The big luxury brands are moving into Tokyo
• International Chains
• Chain penetration in Africa & Middle East
• Africa
• South Africa
• Tunisia
• Middle East
  • Figure 88: Market share of major chains by Middle Eastern country, 2007
• Rotana
• Chain penetration in Australia
  • Figure 89: The top Australian hotel operators at end December 2006
• Chain penetration in Europe
  • Figure 90: Estimated chain penetration of total rooms in selected European countries, 2007
• The top ten hotel groups
  • Figure 91: Chain hotel capacity in the 27 EU countries by star grade 2006-07*
• Accor
  • Figure 92: Accor' s European portfolio by brand, 31 December 2006
  • Figure 93: Accor' s budget pipeline by European country, 2007
• Best Western
• CHI
• Hilton
• IHG
• Marriott
• NH Hoteles
• Rezidor
• Sol Meliá & other Spanish resort operators
  • Figure 94: The 50 top brands in the 27 EU countries by room capacity, 2006-07*
• Chain penetration by country in Europe
• Austria
  • Figure 95: The five leading hotel brands in Austria by number of rooms, at 1 January 2007
• Belgium
  • Figure 96: The five leading hotel brands in Belgium by number of rooms, at 1 January 2007
• Finland
  • Figure 97: The five leading hotel brands in Finland by number of rooms, at 1 January 2007
• France
• Louvre Hotels
  • Figure 98: The ten leading hotel brands in France by number of rooms, at 1 January 2007
• B&B Hotels
• Germany
• Accor and Dorint
• Maritim
  • Figure 99: The five leading hotel brands in Germany by number of rooms, at 1 January 2007
• Motel One
• Sol Meliá
• Greece
• Figure 100: The five leading hotel brands in Greece by number of rooms, at 1 January 2007
• Hungary
  • Figure 101: The five leading hotel brands in Hungary by number of rooms, at 1 January 2007
• Ireland
  • Figure 102: The five leading hotel brands in Ireland by number of rooms, at 1 January 2007
• Italy
  • Figure 103: The five leading hotel brands in Italy by number of rooms, at 1 January 2007
• The Netherlands
  • Figure 104: The five leading hotel brands in the Netherlands by number of rooms, at 1 January 2007
• Poland
  • Figure 105: The five leading hotel brands in Poland by number of rooms, at 1 January 2007
• Portugal
  • Figure 106: The five leading hotel brands in Portugal by number of rooms, at 1 January 2007
  • Figure 107: The five leading hotel brands in Spain by number of rooms, at 1 January 2007
• Russia
  • Figure 108: International chain presence in Russia and CIS, September 2007
• Hilton has big plans
• A Copthorne in Moscow
• Sweden
  • Figure 109: The five leading hotel brands in Sweden by number of rooms, at 1 January 2007
• UK
  • Figure 110: The five leading hotel brands in the UK by number of rooms, at 1 January 2007
  • Figure 111: Leading UK budget hotel brands, 2007
• Chain penetration in India
• Accor
• 100 Formule 1
• 15 Ibis hotels
• Midscale hotels: Novotel and Mercure
• Best Western/Cabana
• Carlson Hotels Worldwide
  • Figure 112: Carlson' s pipeline, August 2007
• CHI
• easyHotel
• Hilton
  • Figure 113: Current Hilton-DLF joint-venture pipeline in India, 2007
• IHG
• Marriott International
  • Figure 114: Marriott' s current pipeline in India, 2007
• Premier Travel Inn/Emaar
• Starwood Hotels & Resorts
• Wyndham Hotels & Resorts
• Hotel Performance by Region
• Africa & Middle East
• Africa
• South Africa
  • Figure 115: South African hotel performance, first half 2007
• Middle East
  • Figure 116: Four- and five-star hotel performance by major city in the Middle East, 2005-06
  • Figure 117: Year-to date performance in major Middle Eastern hotel markets, June 2007
• Profitability in Middle Eastern hotels
• Americas
• Canada
  • Figure 118: Hotel performance by major city and province in Canada, year-to-date July 2006 vs year-to-date July 2007
• Latin America & the Caribbean
  • Figure 119: Latin American and Caribbean hotel performance by region -- year to date, June 2006 vs June 2007
  • Figure 120: Latin American and Caribbean hotel performance by country -- year to date, June 2006 vs June 2007
  • Figure 121: Latin American and Caribbean hotel performance by major city -- year to date, June 2006 vs June 2007
• Valuation trends
• European hotels have offered the best currency-adjusted returns
• Asian hotel values
  • Figure 122: Trend in the per room value of upscale hotels in major Asian cities (ranked by 2006 value), 2000-06
• European hotel values
• Outlook clouded by financing concerns
  • Figure 123: Trends in the per room value of upscale hotels in major European cities (ranked by 2006 value), 2000-06
• Mexico
  • Figure 124: Upscale Mexican hotel performance -- year to date, June 2006 vs June 2007
  • Figure 125: Hotel performance in the main tourist destinations, 2000-06
  • Figure 126: Performance by major tourism destination, 2004-05
• US
  • Figure 127: Year-on-year percentage change in key performance indicators for the US hotel market, 2004- May 2007
• Performance by category
  • Figure 128: US hotel performance by category -- year to date, July 2006 vs July 2007
• Performance by region and city
  • Figure 129: US hotel performance by region -- year to date, July 2006 vs July 2007
• New York is a winner
  • Figure 130: Operating performance by principal US city for the 12 months to end August 2007
• Atlanta is flagging
• Performance by type of location
  • Figure 131: US hotel performance by type of location -- year to date, July 2006 vs July 2007
• Hotel values in the US
• Slowing growth is forecasted
  • Figure 132: Trend in the indexed value per room in major US cities, 2000-06*
• Asia Pacific
  • Figure 133: Upscale hotel performance trend by major Asia-Pacific region, country & city, year-to-date, June 2006 vs June 2007
  • Figure 134: Hotel performance of selected markets across Asia Pacific -- year-to-June 2007 compared to the prior year period
• Australia
  • Figure 135: Tourist accommodation performance key Australian markets, year to date December 2006
  • Figure 136: Upscale hotel performance trend in Australia and in Sydney, year-to-date June 2006 vs June 2007
• Brisbane
• Cairns
• Gold Coast
• Melbourne
• Perth
• Sydney
• India
  • Figure 137: Indian Hotel performance by grade, 2005-06
  • Figure 138: Trend in occupancy* by major Indian city/destination, 2000-07
  • Figure 139: Trend in ADR* by major city/destination, 2000-07
  • Figure 140: Trend in RevPAR* by major city/destination, 2000-07
• Hotel profitability
  • Figure 141: Common-size income summary for the Indian hotel sector, 2001-06
• North East Asia
• Hong Kong
• Shanghai
• Vietnam
• Singapore and Manila
• Europe
• Hotel performance in Europe by star grade
  • Figure 142: Chain hotel performance in EU countries* by star grade, year-to-end August 2007 compared to the prior year period
• Recent performance by country in Europe
• Italy has the highest rates
  • Figure 143: Chain hotel performance by selected country in the EU, year-to-end August 2007 compared to the prior year period
• Hotel performance in Europe by major city
  • Figure 144: Key European city performance, six months year-on-year to end June 2007
• France
  • Figure 145: Chain hotel performance in France by star grade, year-to-end August 2007 compared to the prior year period
• Germany
• Spain
• UK
• Scottish cities outperform provincial average
  • Figure 146: UK hotel performance* year-to-date end August 2007, compared to prior year period
• UK forecast
  • Figure 147: Forecast performance for UK hotels, 2007-08, September 2007
• Hotel Property Financing and Management
• Securitisation -- a major source of hotel financing
• Origins of the current ' credit crunch'
• Tighter lending conditions
• Construction loans -- a silver lining?
• Real estate investment trusts (REITs)
• REIT valuation parameters
• Hotel REITs in Canada
• Canadian Hotel Income Properties (CHIP)
• InnVest
• Legacy Hotels
• Royal Host
• Hotel REITs in France
• Foncière des MursA Hotel REIT in Hong Kong
  • Figure 148: Performance of Regal REIT' s hotel portfolio, 2003-06
• Hotel REITs in Japan
• Two hotel J-REITs
• Singapore -- CDL Hospitality Trusts
  • Figure 149: CDL Hospitality REIT hotel portfolio, 2007
• Hotel REITs in the UK?
• US hotel REITs
  • Figure 150: US hotel REIT characteristics, end September 2007
• Host Hotels and Resorts, Inc
  • Figure 151: Host' s portfolio by brand, February 2007
  • Figure 152: Host' s portfolio by type of location, September 2007
• Hospitality Properties Trust
• Private equity
• Blackstone
  • Figure 153: Blackstone funds' major hotel acquisitions, 2004-07
• Carlyle
• Colony Capital
• Partnership with Kingdom Holdings
• Morgan Stanley
• Asset management
• Distribution Channels
  • Figure 154: Reservations by channel for major hotel chains, Q2 2007
  • Figure 155: Reservations by channel for major hotel chains, Q2 2007
• Trends in spending by hotels on web-marketing
• Key findings
• Internet marketing ROI
  • Figure 156: What hoteliers believe are the best Internet marketing strategies, 2007
• Budget allocations differ across industry segments
  • Figure 157: Breakdown of budgeted hotel spending on Internet distribution by category, 2007
• Budget allocations differ between the US and internationally
• US vs international hotels
  • Figure 158: Budget allocations for hotel Internet marketing -- the US compared tothe rest of the world, 2007
• Internet marketing budget allocations trends 2007
• Web 2.0 -- here to stay or a flash in the pan?
• aloft enters and then exits ' Second Life'
• Web 2.0 presents risks as well as opportunities
• Targeted advertising via Web 2.0
• Spas & Wellness
  • Figure 159: Spa-goers worldwide by gender and country, 2006
• Definitions
• Preferred treatments by country
  • Figure 160: Top treatments received in past 12 months by country, 2007
• Current trends in treatment
• Spas as profit centres?
  • Figure 161: Rate premium for US luxury hotels with spas as compared to those without, 1997-2007
• Spa revenue analysis
• Profitability
• Luxury spas in developing countries can be very profitable
• Physical attributes
• Construction costs
• Environment and Sustainable Development
• Eco-branding
• The International Hotels Environment Initiative
• 1 Hotel & Residences
• LEED standards
• Fairmont
• Motel 6
• Government action required
• Energy-Star -- a step in the right direction
• In-room energy management systems
• In-house Technology and Design Features
• On-property entertainment
• Hilton' s ' Sight+Sound' rooms
• Hyatt' s music offering
• Hotel design
• Design hotels
• Marriott and Hyatt play catch-up in the boutique segment
• Marriott and Ian Schrager
• Hyatt' s ANdAZ
• Budget hotel design
• CitizenM
• easyHotel
• Motel One
• YOTEL
• What Next?
• Optimism reigns
• Rising hotel rates predicted
  • Figure 162: Forecast hotel rate* rises by region, for 2008
• Asia-Pacific
  • Figure 163: Forecast hotel rate* rises in Asia-Pacific, for 2008
  • Figure 164: Forecast hotel rate* rises in Latin America & Caribbean, for 2008
• Europe
  • Figure 165: Forecast hotel rate* rises in Europe, for 2008
• North America
  • Figure 166: Forecast hotel rate* rises in North America, for 2008
• What could go wrong?
• Growth forecasts being cut