Rail Travel - UK - January 2008

Table of Contents

• Issues in the Market
• Definitions
• Abbreviations
• Market In Brief
• Full speed ahead...
• ...and going the distance...
• ...but social base narrows
• Railing against fares
• Book early, book cheap
• UK plc goes green
• Feeling the pinch
• Slow train coming
• Leaves on the line
• Internal Market Environment
• Key points:
• White Paper predicts growth
• Shifting the burden
• Paying the price
• Trouble ahead
• Chaos theory
• Traffic jam
  • Figure 1: Licensed cars in Great Britain, 1997-2006
  • Figure 2: Retail Prices Index: Transport components, 1996-2006
• High-speed Europe
• Joined-up approach
• Broader Market Environment
• Key points:
• Clouds on horizon
  • Figure 3: Trends in personal disposable income and consumer expenditure, 2002-12
• Age of the train
  • Figure 4: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, by gender, 2002-12
• Rail-shy and retiring
  • Figure 5: Forecast adult population trends, by lifestage, 2002-12
• ABs let the train take the strain
  • Figure 6: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2002-12
• Railnet
  • Figure 7: Internet penetration at home/work/place of study or elsewhere, by gender, socio-economic group and age, 2002-06
• Leisure Britain
  • Figure 8: UK spending priorities, January 2007
• Competitive Context
• Key points:
• Carbon currency
  • Figure 9: Percentage of total UK carbon emissions, by mode of passenger transport, 2007
• Fight for green pound
• Car cleaning
• The big travel picture
  • Figure 10: National Travel Survey 2006: Percentage of all domestic trips, by purpose and mode, 2006
  • Figure 11: National Travel Survey 2006: Percentage of domestic distance travelled, by purpose and mode, 2006
• Trains versus planes at home
  • Figure 12: Long-distance domestic rail vs domestic airline passengers, 2001/02-2006/07
• Green holiday shift?
  • Figure 13: Domestic holidays, by mode of transport, 2002-07
• Trains versus planes away
  • Figure 14: Overseas travel modes comparison -- visits abroad by UK residents (all types including holidays, business and VFR travel), 2002-06
  • Figure 15: Overseas travel modes comparison -- visits to the UK by overseas residents (all types including holidays, business and VFR travel), 2002-06
• HS1 catalyst
• Strengths and Weaknesses in the Market
• Strengths
• Weaknesses
• Market Size and Forecast
• Key points:
• Commuters driving footfall more than leisure
  • Figure 16: Estimated volume of UK passenger rail journeys, 2002/03-2011/12
• After an initial boost revenue begins to decline
  • Figure 17: Estimated value of UK domestic rail passenger journeys, 2002/03-2011/12
• Factors used in the forecast
• Reasons for growth
• Valuing rail
  • Figure 18: Estimated value of UK domestic rail passenger journeys, 2002/03-2011/12
• The future
• Segment Performance
• Key points:
• Business grows faster...
  • Figure 19: Estimated volume of UK domestic and business passenger rail journeys, 2002/03-2006/07
• ...but leisure remains larger
  • Figure 20: Estimated proportion and volume of UK domestic rail passenger journeys, by purpose, 2006/07
• Long-distance travel
  • Figure 21: Long-distance UK domestic passenger rail journeys, volume, value and average fare, 2001/02-2006/07
• Tunnel -- visits abroad by UK residents
  • Figure 22: Volume of visits abroad by UK residents via tunnel crossing, 2002-06
• Tunnel -- overseas visits to the UK
  • Figure 23: Volume of visits to the UK by overseas residents via tunnel crossing, 2002-06
• Companies and Products
• Key points:
• Industry structure
  • Figure 24: UK rail operating companies, 2008
• Company profiles
• Arriva Trains Wales
• Association of Train Operating Companies (ATOC)
• Eurostar
• First Great Western
• First ScotRail
• Great Rail Journeys
• One Railway
• Southern Rail
• Virgin Trains
• Who Travels by Rail
• Key points:
• Who uses rail?
  • Figure 25: Use of rail travel in the past 12 months, September 2007
• All change
• Rail usage by demographics
  • Figure 26: Rail usage, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, presence of children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, household income, tenure, region, ACORN category, media usage, supermarket usage, household size, car usage, detailed lifestage groups, age/socio-economic group and terminal education age, September 2007
• Growing dependence on affluents
• Young adults on right track
• Middle age spread
• Female execs shun the train
  • Figure 27: Further rail usage, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, presence of children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, household income, tenure, region, ACORN category, media usage, supermarket usage, household size, car usage, detailed lifestage groups, age/socio-economic group and terminal education age, September 2007
• Rail Travelling Habits
• Key points:
  • Figure 28: Rail habits in the past 12 months, September 2007
• Buying behaviour traditional...
• ...but online shift is growing
• Making the trains run on time
• Travellers turned off mags
• Agent opportunities
• Rail habits by demographics
  • Figure 29: Rail habits in the past 12 months, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, presence of children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, household income, tenure, region, ACORN category, media usage, supermarket usage, household size, car usage, detailed lifestage groups, age/socio-economic group and terminal education age, September 2007
• ABC1s go online
• Moaning men
• Catering for deeper pockets
• Rail habits by usage
  • Figure 30: Rail habits, by usage in the past 12 months, September 2007
• Successful stations
  • Figure 31: Rail habits, by further usage in the past 12 months, September 2007
• Business in Web vanguard