Ambient Desserts - UK - January 2008

Table of Contents

• Issues in the Market
• Key themes
• Definition
• Market in Brief
• Market struggles to find growth
• Lunchboxes offer ray of hope
• Premier Foods dominates sales
• Adspend has been erratic
• Ambient desserts are low priority
• Focusing on the positive
• Internal Market Environment
• Key points
• The obesity issue
  • Figure 1: Prevalence of obesity in adults, by gender, 2003 and 2010
  • Figure 2: Adults who are trying to slim, 2003-07
• A nation divided?
  • Figure 3: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, 2003-07
• Packed lunches -- for children
• ...and adults too
• Eating habits
  • Figure 4: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements relating to eating habits, 2003-07
• More evening meals are cooked from scratch
• Tapping into nostalgia
• Broader Market Environment
• Key points
• Demographics offer opportunities for growth
  • Figure 5: Trends and projections in UK population (' 000s), by age group, 2002-12
• Households get smaller
  • Figure 6: Changes in UK household sizes, 2002-12
• Working women
  • Figure 7: Working women by age of own children, 1998-2006
  • Figure 8: Working status by socio-economic group, 2006
• 5 A DAY
• UK work culture promotes snacking
• PDI continues to rise
  • Figure 9: PDI and consumer expenditure, at constant 2002 prices, 2002-12
• Competitive Context
• Key points
• Ambient desserts face stiff competition
  • Figure 10: UK retail sales of desserts, 2002-07
• Fruit provides another healthy option
  • Figure 11: UK retail sales of fresh fruit and vegetables, by value, 2001-06
  • Figure 12: Expenditure on fresh vegetables and fresh fruit in the last week, 2002-06
• Strengths and Weaknesses in the Market
• Strengths
• Weaknesses
• Market Size and Forecast
• Key points
• Volume in long-term decline
  • Figure 16: UK retail sales of ambient desserts, by volume, 2002-07
• ...while value holds on
  • Figure 17: UK retail sales of ambient desserts, by value, 2002-07
• Opportunities to grow value in the future
• Organics:
• Functionality:
• Premiumisation:
• Future trends
  • Figure 18: Forecast of UK retail sales of ambient desserts, by value, 2007-12
  • Figure 19: Forecast of UK reail sales of ambient desserts, by volume, 2007-12
  • Figure 20: Market share changes in desserts between 2002 and 2007
• Factors used in the forecast
• Segment Performance
• Key points
• RTE takes greater share
  • Figure 21: UK retail sales of ambient desserts, by type, by value, 2003 -07
  • Figure 22: UK retail sales of ambient desserts, by type, by volume, 2003-07
• Sponge puddings
• RTE focus on packed lunches
  • Figure 23: UK retail sales of RTE desserts, by type, by volume, 2003-07
• ...and health
  • Figure 24: UK retail sales of RTE desserts, by type, by value, 2003- 07
• Growth in free-from not to be taken for granted
• Aunt Bessie adds interest in cartoned custard
• Cans in decline
  • Figure 25: UK retail sales of canned milk-based desserts*, by type, by volume, 2003-07
  • Figure 26: UK retail sales of canned milk-based desserts*, by type, by value, 2003-07
• Packet desserts in terminal decline?
  • Figure 27: UK retail sales of packet desserts, by type, by volume, 2003-07
  • Figure 28: UK retail sales of packet desserts, by type, by value, 2003-07
• Market Share
• Key points
• Ambrosia extends lead in canned milk-based desserts
  • Figure 29: Manufacturers' shares in the canned milk-based desserts market, 2003-07
• Premier Foods dominates packet desserts
  • Figure 30: Manufacturers' shares in the packet desserts market, 2003-07
• ...and the RTE sector
  • Figure 31: Manufacturers' shares in the RTE pot and carton desserts market, 2003-07
• Heinz leads sales
• Own labels playing catch up
• Companies and Products
• Premier Foods
• Alpro
• Del Monte
• Dole
• Other manufacturers
• Heinz
• Nestl
• Old Fashioned Foods
• Simpsons
• Brand Communication and Promotion
• Key points
• Adspend fluctuates dramatically
  • Figure 32: Main monitored media spend on ambient desserts, 2003-07
• TV is used sparingly
  • Figure 33: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on ambient desserts by medium, 2003-07*
• Ambrosia dominate the airwaves
  • Figure 34: Main monitored media expenditure on ambient desserts, by manufacturer and brand, 2003-07*
• Lunchbox focus
• So much more to say...
• Canned Food UK
• Channels to Market
• Key points
• Lunchbox sales boost grocers' share
  • Figure 35: Value sales of ambient desserts, by type of retail outlet, 2003-07
• ...but also offer opportunity to other outlets
• Increasing footfall is key challenge
• The Consumer -- An appetite for desserts
• Key points
• Ambient desserts not at the top of the dessert list
  • Figure 36: Type of dessert bought as part of a regular weekly shop, October 2007
• Dessert Consumption: Attitudes and Motivations
• Key points
• Custard is nation' s favourite
  • Figure 37: Type of ambient dessert bought in the last 12 months, October 2007
• Families love desserts
  • Figure 38: Consumer ambient dessert preferences, October 2007
• Singles could buy more
• ABs like jelly and custard
• Ambient ambivalence
  • Figure 39: Attitudes towards ambient desserts, October 2007
• Price
• Convenience
• Health v indulgence
• Old-fashioned can be good
• ...but is not for everyone
• Cross analysis
  • Figure 40: Top dessert preferences of by types of ambient desserts bought in the last 12 months, October 2007
• Opportunities for confectionery brands?
• Are chilled desserts setting the standard?
• Cross analysis of attitudes to ambient desserts and preferences
• More rice pudding for lunchboxes
• Greater convenience
• Willing to pay more?
• Eye for a bargain?
• Appendix
• Advertising data
• Abbreviations
• Internal market environment
  • Figure 45: Consumption of yogurt and fromage frais in the last 12 months, by demographic sub-group, 2007Figure 46: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographic sub group, 2007
  • Figure 47: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographic sub group, 2007
• The consumer -- An appetite for desserts: Detailed demographics
  • Figure 48: Type of dessert bought as part of a weekly shop, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, presence of children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, tenure, region, ACORN category, technology usage, newspaper readership, commercial TV viewing, supermarket usage, household size, car usage, detailed lifestage groups and terminal education age, October 2007
  • Figure 49: Type of dessert bought as part of a weekly shop, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, presence of children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, tenure, region, ACORN category, technology usage, newspaper readership, commercial TV viewing, supermarket usage, household size, car usage, detailed lifestage groups and terminal education age, October 2007
  • Figure 50: Type of dessert bought as part of a weekly shop, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, presence of children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, tenure, region, ACORN category, technology usage, newspaper readership, commercial TV viewing, supermarket usage, household size, car usage, detailed lifestage groups and terminal education age, October 2007
• Dessert consumption: Attitudes and motivations: Detailed demographics
  • Figure 51: Type of ambient dessert bought in the last 12 months, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, presence of children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, tenure, region, ACORN category, technology usage, newspaper readership, commercial TV viewing, supermarket usage, household size, car usage, detailed lifestage groups and terminal education age, October 2007
  • Figure 52: Type of ambient dessert bought in the last 12 months, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, presence of children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, tenure, region, ACORN category, technology usage, newspaper readership, commercial TV viewing, supermarket usage, household size, car usage, detailed lifestage groups and terminal education age, October 2007
  • Figure 53: Attitudes to ambient desserts, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, presence of children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, tenure, region, ACORN category, technology usage, newspaper readership, commercial TV viewing, supermarket usage, household size, car usage, detailed lifestage groups and terminal education age, October 2007
  • Figure 54: Attitudes to ambient desserts, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, presence of children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, tenure, region, ACORN category, technology usage, newspaper readership, commercial TV viewing, supermarket usage, household size, car usage, detailed lifestage groups and terminal education age, October 2007
  • Figure 55: Attitudes to ambient desserts, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, presence of children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, tenure, region, ACORN category, technology usage, newspaper readership, commercial TV viewing, supermarket usage, household size, car usage, detailed lifestage groups and terminal education age, October 2007
  • Figure 56: Cross analysis of types of ambient desserts bought and attitudes to ambient desserts, October 2007
• The consumer -- Further analysis: Detailed demographics
  • Figure 57: Profile of repertoires by desserts eaten b demographic group, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, presence of children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, tenure, region, ACORN category, technology usage, newspaper readership, commercial TV viewing, supermarket usage, household size, car usage, detailed lifestage groups and terminal education age, October 2007
  • Figure 58: Cluster groups of ambient dessert consumers, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, presence of children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, tenure, region, ACORN category, technology usage, newspaper readership, commercial TV viewing, supermarket usage, household size, car usage, detailed lifestage groups and terminal education age, October 2007
  • Figure 59: Cluster groups of ambient dessert consumers, by type of dessert eaten, October 2007
  • Figure 60: Cluster groups of ambient dessert consumers, by attitudes to desserts, October 2007