Airports and Airport Security - International - March 2008

Table of Contents

• Introduction
• Distinguishing between safety and security
• Key findings
• Acronyms
• Economic Outlook
• Current outlook for GDP growth
  • Figure 1: Real GDP growth rate in %, 2005-09
• Risk of falling real estate prices
• Short-term interest rates
  • Figure 2: Trend & outlook for short-term interest rates*, 2006-08
• Long-term interest rates
  • Figure 3: The outlook for long-term interest rates, 2007-08
• Surging oil prices
• Exchange rates
  • Figure 4: Average exchange rates against the Euro, 2006-08
• Spending on travel and tourism to 2017
  • Figure 5: Travel & tourism expenditure worldwide, 2007-17
• Forecast for international tourism movements and spending
• Outbound trips by region of origin, 1990-2020
  • Figure 6: Outbound trips (millions) by region of origin, 1990-2020
• Inbound arrivals by destination
  • Figure 7: Arrivals (millions) by region of origin, 1990-2020
• Incoming receipts growth
  • Figure 8: Incoming receipts by region, 2003-20
• Top ten countries for outbound trips
  • Figure 9: Top ten countries for outbound departures in 2005 & 2020
• Top ten countries for outbound expenditure
  • Figure 10: Top ten countries for outbound expenditure in 2005 & 2020
• Top ten inbound countries for inbound arrivals
  • Figure 11: Top ten countries for inbound arrivals in 2005 & 2020
• Top ten countries for incoming receipts
  • Figure 12: Top ten markets for incoming receipts in 2005 & 2020
• The fastest-growing outbound markets and destinations
  • Figure 13: The ten fastest-growing outbound countries for departures and spend, 2005-20
  • Figure 14: The ten fastest-growing destinations for arrivals and receipts, 2005-20
• Forecast trips and spend by the 30 main outbound countries
  • Figure 15: Trips and spend by country of origin, 2005-20
• Forecast arrivals and receipts in the 32 main destination countries
  • Figure 16: Forecast arrivals and receipts by 32 main destination countries, 2005-20
• Issues and Trends
• Traffic growth
  • Figure 17: Trend in worldwide air passenger movements, 2000-06
• Network expansion
• Regional trends
  • Figure 18: Forecast air traffic growth for 2007
• Passengers
  • Figure 19: International traffic results by airline region of registration, Nov 2006-Nov 2007
• Premium travel languishing
• Air freight
• Competition from other transport modes
• Air freight profitability
• Air freight by region
• The largest airports in the world
• Passengers
• Denver boosted by low-cost traffic
  • Figure 20: The world' s leading airports ranked by passenger movements, 2006
• Aircraft movements
  • Figure 21: The world' s leading airports ranked by aircraft movements*, 2006
• Freight
• Memphis is number one
• Hong Kong
• Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport
  • Figure 22: The world' s leading airports ranked by cargo tonnes transported, 2006
• Airport management
• Marketing airports
• Greensboro subsidises carriers
• Budget airlines heavily subsidised
• Airport revenue streams
  • Figure 23: Sources of airport operating revenues, 2007
• ' Dual till' accounting
• Slot allocation
  • Figure 24: share of flights of top three carriers at major airports in Europe and the US, 2005
• Alitalia sells Heathrow slots at record prices
• A slot auction at JFK?
• Non-aeronautical activities
• Airport retailing and food & beverage goes upmarket
• Airport hotels
• Airport charges
• Fee structures
• Airport fee consultation procedure in Italy
• Airport fees average 4% of airline costs, but higher for LCCs
• Ryanair critical of ' monopoly airports'
• IATA lobbies for lower airport charges
• Regulation airport charges in UK
• Stansted will continue to be regulated
• Manchester ' deregulated' but under pressure from competition
• Ryanair attracted by low fees at Birmingham
• Owner/operator trends
• Asia-Pacific
• Australia
• China
• Europe
• Austria
• Denmark
• France
• Germany
• Italy
• Netherlands
• Russia
• Spain
• Sweden
• Switzerland
• Turkey
  • Figure 25: TAV Airports Holding' s shareholder structure, 2007
• UK
• Latin America
• Argentina
• Nicaragua
• North America
• Chicago Midway Airport
• Canada
• Mexico
• Economic impact of airports
  • Figure 26: The economic impact of the air transport industry, 2007
• Employment
  • Figure 27: Employment at airports worldwide, 2005
• The economic impact of the airport transport industry by region
  • Figure 28: Breakdown of the economic contribution of the air transport industry by region, 2004
• UK
• Heathrow creates over 170,000 jobs
  • Figure 29: Jobs created directly and indirectly by London Heathrow, 2005
• Environmental sustainability
• Noise
• Emissions control and energy conservation
• Global aviation environmental standards
• Airport Security
• Layers of security
  • Figure 30: The TSA' s 20 layers of airport security
• The Joint Terrorism Task Force (JTTF)
• The ' No-fly List'
• The No-Fly List criticised
• Validity questioned
• Secure Flight
  • Figure 31: Comparison of CAPPS II and Secure Flight capabilities, 2006
• ' Vetting and credentialing' rationalised
• How Secure Flight would work
• Passengers to be categorised
• Mounting opposition to Secure Flight
• Key legislators and government officials also question the programme' s viability
• Too costly, not enough time
• Secondary Security Screening Selection
• Procedure when selected
• Randomness and credibility
• VIPR teams
• The TSA' s canine team
• Behaviour detection officers
• SPOT' s track record
• Ethnic profiling
• Federal Flight Deck Officer Program
• Passenger screening
• Metal detectors
• Ten fingerprints from foreign travellers entering the US
• The UK' s e-Borders programme
  • Figure 32: e-Borders implementation schedule, 2008-14
• Baggage screening
• 100% passenger baggage screening
• Canada had 100% baggage screening before the deadline
• One-bag rule revoked
• Human resources issues
• Vetting of applicants
• The Transportation Security Clearinghouse
• New vetting requirements creating a bottleneck
• BAA spends £250 million a year on security
• Securing the building, parking areas, runways and surroundings
• BAA' s number plate recognition
• Screening for car bombs
• Roving security patrols
• Developments in scanning technology
• Backscatters do virtual ' strip searches'
• Issues involving the use of backscatters
• Biometric security applications in airports
• Employee access control is the main use now
  • Figure 33: Use of biometric identification in the world' s largest airports*, 2007
• TSA biometric product testing and standards
• TSA qualification testing
• miSense at Heathrow
• miSense passenger flow sequence
• Subsequent journeys
• miSense -- summary of results
• miSense plus
• miSense all clear
• International regulatory requirements
• The IATA' s air travel security standards
• The ' Simplifying Passenger Travel' initiative
• Key opportunities
  • Figure 34: Electronic ticketing penetration by airlines in IATA BSPs*, 2006-07
• ICAO security audits
• The audit process
• Aviation Security Mechanism
• Technical Co-operation Programme
• Audit follow-up missions
• Travel disruption now a major issue
• Ryanair descries airport mismanagement
• UK airports losing share due to restrictive rules
• Uproar over continued delays at UK airports
  • Figure 35: UK airport guide for security duration, 2007
• Decline in satisfaction with baggage handling at US airports
  • Figure 36: Customer satisfaction ranking* at large** US airports, 2007
• Do monopolies reduce passenger satisfaction?
• Monopoly theory contradicted by JD Power study
• Dealing with travel disruption
• Registered passenger schemes
• Privium Club
• CANPASS Air
• The UK' s Project IRIS
• The TSA' s Registered Traveller (RT) programme
• Participating sponsoring entities
• Clear
  • Figure 37: Cost* of Clear membership, 2008
• Online registration
• Check-in by mobile phone
• Finnair
• Japan Airlines (JAL)
• All Nippon Airways (ANA)
• Air Canada
• Spanair' s link with Vodafone
• Creating an industry standard
• Airport Development and Expansion Projects
• Africa
• Angola
• A new airport at Luanda
• A US$400-million investment programme
• Libya
• Morocco
• South Africa
• Johannesburg International Airport (JIA)
• New airport at Durban
• Tunisia
• Asia Pacific
• Australia
• Brisbane Airport
• Sydney Airport
• China
• 97 more regional airports by 2020
• Congestion at the big hubs remains the real problem
• Bottlenecks due to lack of qualified manpower?
• India
• Mumbai and New Delhi
• Slum clearance project
  • Figure 38: Summary of India' s major airport infrastructure projects, April 2007
• Hyderabad' s new airport
  • Figure 39: Trend in air passenger traffic at Hyderabad, 2002-07
• Greater Noida
• Indonesia
• Kuala Namu International Airport
• An international airport in Kertajati
• Japan
• Tokyo Haneda Airport
• Naha Airport
• Malaysia
• New Zealand
• Pakistan
• Philippines
• Sri Lanka
• Thailand
• Vietnam
• Europe
• Planned capital expenditure at European airports 2006-15
  • Figure 40: Capital expenditure at European airports 2006-15 by type of expenditure, 2000-15
  • Figure 41: Future Capital expenditure at European airports by location, 2006-15
• France
  • Figure 42: Aéroports de Paris investment programme by year, 2006-12
• Capacity increase at Paris-Charles de Gaulle
• Germany
• Berlin
• BBI' s financing and ownership structure
• Frankfurt
• Munich
• Ireland
• Pier D
• Terminal 1
• Terminal 2
• Italy
• Poland
• Portugal
• Lisbon' s new international airport to be located in Alcochete, not in Ota
• Economic and financial factors decisive
• Russia
• A revived aircraft manufacturing sector?
• Moscow
• Spain
• Canary Islands expansion project
• Switzerland
• UK
• Heathrow
• Heathrow East
• Timeline for the currently planned development of Heathrow
• A further £9-billion expansion?
• Stansted
• LCCs oppose the plan
• Luton has abandoned its expansion plan
• Birmingham
• Latin America and the Caribbean
• Argentina
• Brazil
• Colombia
• Two new regional airports
• Haiti
• Honduras
• Panama
• Uruguay
• Middle East
• Bahrain
• Iraq
• Karbala International Airport
• Jordan
• Kuwait
• Qatar
• Saudi Arabia
• United Arab Emirates
• The Dubai World Central International Airport
• Abu Dhabi International Airport
• Sharjah
• Sir Abu Nu' air
• North America
• Canada
• Edmonton
• US
  • Figure 43: Breakdown of projected capital expenditure at US airports by size/type, 2007-11
• Inflation-impacting airport construction costs
• Terminal capacity is the priority
  • Figure 44: Projected development costs by project location & size of hub, 2000-11
  • Figure 45: Projected development expenditure by project type, (US$ mn), 2007-11
  • Figure 46: Projected development expenditure by project type in %, 2007-11
• FACT 1 & 2
• Airports with near term capacity or delay constraints
• Airports with longer-term potential capacity constraints
  • Figure 47: Airports likely to experience capacity problems by 2015 even ater planned improvements, 2007Figure 48: Airports likely to experience capacity problems by 2025 even ater planned improvements, 2007
• Chicago O' Hare
  • Figure 49: O' Hare airport' s master plan, 2005-25
  • Figure 50: The O' Hare modernization programme (OMP), 2007
• Tampa, Florida
• What Next?
• Outlook for growth in passenger/freight traffic
• Growth by region
  • Figure 51: Growth in passenger and freight traffic, 2007-11
• Global air traffic shares in 2011
  • Figure 52: Global air passenger and air freight shares by route/region in 2011
  • Figure 53: Projected growth in passenger boardings at US airports (in millions), 2006-13*
• Future growth in aircraft capacity
• Deregulation and LCCs will drive growth
• Passenger and freighter aircraft deliveries worth US$2.6 trillion
  • Figure 54: Total aircraft deliveries* by region, 2006-25
  • Figure 55: Top ten countries for passenger plane orders, 2006-25
• The outlook for airport security