Christmas Foods - UK - April 2008

Table of Contents

• Issues in the Market
• Key themes
• Definition
• Abbreviations
• Market in Brief
• Growth slows as some categories struggle
• Internet and catalogue sales offer growth potential
• Christmas ad support falls
• Range extensions and a ' natural' shift drive NPD
• Opportunities among ABs
• A sweet future for biscuits?
• Internal Market Environment
• Key points
• Erosion of family dinners bolsters Christmas occasions
• Consumers cut back and seek provenance
  • Figure 1: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, 2003-07
• TV programmes boost home baking
• Shopping becomes a chore for more
• Morrisons
• Manufacturers take eco and ethical concerns on board
• Broader Market Environment
• Key points
• Watershed proposals could dent Christmas advertising
• Rising raw material costs could push prices up for Christmas 2008
• Consumer expenditure projections fuel growth potential
  • Figure 2: PDI and consumer expenditure, at constant 2003 prices, 2003-13
• Growth in ABs boosting premium opportunities
  • Figure 3: UK population, by socio-economic group, 2003-13
• Number of over-65s set to grow
• Population shifts drive format and convenience NPD
• Strengths and Weaknesses in the Market
• Strengths
• Weaknesses
• Market Size and Forecast
• Key points
• Growth slows for Christmas foods market
  • Figure 8: UK retail Christmas sales of selected foods, 2005 and 2007
• Future growth potential
  • Figure 9: Estimated value of total Xmas food sales, 2008-13
• Factors used in the forecast
• Segment Performance
• Key points
• Varied fortunes reported across the Christmas foods market
  • Figure 10: Retail sales of selected foods during the Christmas period, 2005 and 2007
• Premium growth boosts sweet seasonal biscuits
• Christmas is a saviour for savoury
  • Figure 11: Retail sales of seasonal biscuits in the last 16 weeks of the year, 2005 and 2007
• ' Baking revival' not apparent in fruit, nut and mincemeat sales
• Revived fortunes for the stuffing category
• A poor year for hams in or out of the can
• Chocolate goes upmarket as volume sales decline
• Iconic brands suffering from premium competition
• Own-label is stealing market share
  • Figure 12: Retail sales of chocolate confectionery in the last 16 weeks of the year, by segment, 2005 and 2007
• Christmas puddings suffer volume sales decline
  • Figure 13: Retail sales of Christmas puddings in the last 16 weeks of the year, by segment, 2005 and 2007
• Discounting dents cranberry sauce sales
• Market slows for non-seasonal Christmas cake sales
• Traditional revival boosts fortunes for Christmas cake
  • Figure 14: Retail sales of seasonal packaged cakes in the last 16 weeks of the year, by segment, 2005 and 2007
• Premiumisation boosts own-label
• Mince pies enjoy buoyant trade
  • Figure 15: Retail sales of seasonal packaged cakes in the last 16 weeks of the year, by segment, 2005 and 2007
• Nutritional nuts extend premium appeal
  • Figure 16: Retail sales of snack nuts in the last 12 weeks of the year, by segment, 2005 and 2007
• Moderate performance for turkey
• Growth reported in organic and free-range niches
• Convenience products restore value
  • Figure 17: Retail sales of turkey products and other poultry in the last 12 weeks of the year, by segment, 2005 and 2007
• Companies and Products
• Baking fruits and culinary nuts
• Biscuits
• United Biscuits
• Burton' s Foods
• Northern Foods
• Other manufacturers
• Cakes and mince pies
• Premier Foods
• Greencore Cakes & Desserts
• Canned ham
• Ham/gammon joints
• Chocolate confectionery
• Cadbury Trebor Bassett
• Masterfoods
• Nestl
• Kraft Foods
• Other manufacturers
• Christmas pudding
• Cranberry sauce
• Stuffing
• Mincemeat
• Snacking nuts
• United Biscuits
• Turkey
• Bernard Matthews
• Brand Communication and Promotion
• Key points
• Health focus draws funds away from Christmas ads
  • Figure 18: Main monitored media spend, annually and for Q4, 2006 and 2007
• Festive biscuit promotions plummet
• Chocolate attracts the greatest adspend boost
• Red meat, fish and added-value products lead spend
• Retailer Activity
• Key points
• Local sourcing and online sales challenge supermarket footfall
  • Figure 19: Analysis of retailer sales in the Christmas period, 2006 and 2007
• Retailer performances
  • Figure 20: Number of new product launches, by retailer, Q4 2005-07
• Asda
• The Co-op
• Morrisons
• M&S
• Sainsbury' s
• Tesco
• Waitrose
• Food Items Purchased
• Key points
  • Figure 21: Christmas foods bought in the last Christmas season, January 2008
• Mince pies top the Christmas shopping list
• Mince pies still popular
• The slow demise of Yule logs
• A sweet year for chocolates
• Size and convenience drive meat and poultry sales
  • Figure 22: Profile of meats and fish bought over Christmas, by socio-economic group and region, January 2008
• Salmon' s light appeal wins over older consumers
  • Figure 23: Items purchased as a gift, January 2008Burgeoning gift opportunities for festive food
• Appendix: Advertising Data
• Appendix: Internal Market Environment
  • Figure 27: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, presence of children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, tenure, region, ACORN category, media usage, household size and car ownership, 2007
  • Figure 28: Agreement with statement ' It is worth paying extra for quality goods' , by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, presence of children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, tenure, region, ACORN category, media usage, household size and car ownership, 2007
• Appendix: Broader Market Environment
  • Figure 29: Trends and projections in UK population (' 000s), by age group, 2003-13
  • Figure 30: Changes in UK household sizes, 2003-13
  • Figure 31: Working population, by gender, 2003-13
• Appendix: Food Items Purchased: Detailed Demographics
  • Figure 32: Christmas foods bought in the last Christmas season, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, presence of children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, tenure, region, ACORN category, technology usage, newspaper readership, commercial TV viewing, supermarket usage, household size, car usage, detailed lifestage groups and terminal education age, January 2008
  • Figure 33: Christmas foods bought in the last Christmas season, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, presence of children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, tenure, region, ACORN category, technology usage, newspaper readership, commercial TV viewing, supermarket usage, household size, car usage, detailed lifestage groups and terminal education age, January 2008
  • Figure 34: Christmas foods bought in the last Christmas season, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, presence of children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, tenure, region, ACORN category, technology usage, newspaper readership, commercial TV viewing, supermarket usage, household size, car usage, detailed lifestage groups and terminal education age, January 2008
  • Figure 35: Items purchased as a gift, by gender, age, socio-economic group, ITV region, working status, marital status, presence of children, lifestage, Mintel' s Special Groups and supermarket used, January 2008
  • Figure 36: Items purchased as a gift, by gender, age, socio-economic group, ITV region, working status, marital status, presence of children, lifestage, Mintel' s Special Groups and supermarket used, January 2008
  • Figure 37: Items purchased as a gift, by gender, age, socio-economic group, ITV region, working status, marital status, presence of children, lifestage, Mintel' s Special Groups and supermarket used, January 2008