Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties - US - May 2008

Table of Contents

• Scope and Themes
• What you need to know
• Definition
• Data sources
• Sales data
• Consumer survey data
• Abbreviations and terms
• Abbreviations
• Terms
• Executive Summary
• Well-established market with high usage still manages to grow slightly
• Competition is growing for at-home ice cream
• The struggle for health and decadence affects segments
• Supermarket sales challenged by "other outlets"......and convenience stores
• Factors impacting ice cream sales
• Nearly half of FDM sales generated by Nestlé and Unilever
• Nestlé and Unilever seeking all consumers--the defining difference
• Innovation driven by premium and health focuses
• Ice cream is universal
• Habits and beliefs of the ice cream consumer
• Consumer attitudes regarding frozen yogurt and gelato
• Market Size and Forecast
• Key points
• Mature market is challenged to produce significant growth
  • Figure 1: Total U.S. sales and forecast of ice cream, sherbet, frozen yogurt, and frozen novelties at current prices, 2002-12*
  • Figure 2: Total U.S. sales and forecast of ice cream, sherbet, frozen yogurt, and frozen novelties at inflation adjusted prices, 2002-12
• Competitive Context
• Competition from foodservice
• Ice cream shops serve up an increasingly enticing proposition
  • Figure 3: Source of ice cream for in home consumption, March 2008
• Scoop shops focus on advertising and promotion
  • Figure 4: Baskin-Robbins Reese' s ice cream, 2007
• Segment Performance
• Key points
• Health and wellness influencing all segments
• The decadence demand
  • Figure 5: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of ice cream, sherbet, frozen yogurt, and frozen novelties at current prices, by segment, 2002-12
  • Figure 6: U.S. FDMx sales of ice cream, sherbet, frozen yogurt, and frozen novelties, by segment, 2005 and 2007
• Segment Performance--Ice Cream
• Key points
• Ice cream sales shift as consumers seek out portion-controlled novelties
• Bridging the gap between highly indulgent and healthy ice cream
  • Figure 7: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of ice cream, 2002-12
• Segment Performance--Frozen Novelties
• Key points
• Size matters--bite-size, minis, personal portions
  • Figure 8: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of frozen novelties, 2002-12
• Segment Performance--Sherbet/Sorbet/Ices
• Key points
• Super-premium brand provides boost to segment sales
  • Figure 9: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of sherbet, 2002-12
• Segment Performance--Frozen Yogurt
• Key points
• Functionality breathes life into frozen yogurt
  • Figure 10: U.S. FMDx sales and forecast of frozen yogurt, 2002-12
• Retail Channels
• Key points
• Mass merchandiser expansion driving sales in "other" outlets
• A mix of "other" outlets also contributing to success
  • Figure 11: U.S. sales of ice cream, sherbet, frozen yogurt, and frozen novelties, by retail channel, 2005 and 2007
• Retail Channels--Supermarkets
• Key points
• Supermarkets sales dip slightly--challenge: impulse and convenience
  • Figure 12: U.S. sales of ice cream, sherbert, frozen yogurt, and frozen novelties at supermarkets, 2002-07
• Retail Channels--Convenience Stores
• Key points
• C-stores and novelties--the perfect match
  • Figure 13: U.S. sales of ice cream, sherbert, frozen yogurt, and frozen novelties at convenience stores, 2002-07
• Market Drivers
• Yin and Yang--desires for health and indulgence
• Hold the fat! No significant change in adult obesity rates
• Children continue to battle the bulge
  • Figure 14: Attributes important to choosing snack for children, December 2007
• Convenience store growth signals shift from grocery
• Leading Companies
• Key points
• Nestlé yields gains by reaching two consumer types
• Wells' Dairy records the strongest growth with Weight Watchers success
  • Figure 15: FDMx sales of leading ice cream, sherbet, frozen yogurt, and frozen novelties companies, 2005 and 2007
• Brand Share--Ice Cream
• Key points
• Dreyer' s/Edy' s capitalize on slow churn ice cream
• Häagen-Dazs and Ben & Jerry' s--sophisticated ice cream experiences
  • Figure 16: FDMx brand sales of ice cream in the U.S., 2005 and 2007
• Brand Share--Frozen Novelties
• Key points
• Nestlé and Unilever brands parlaying churned success into novelties
• Weight Watchers and Skinny Cow--diet-branded novelties fuel sales
• Dibs offers bite-sized, Blue Bunny promotes personal size
  • Figure 17: FDMx brand sales of frozen novelties in the U.S., 2005 and 2007
• Brand Share--Sherbet/Sorbet/Ices
• Key point
• Hägen-Dazs offers super-premium sorbets featuring "clean labels"
  • Figure 18: FDMx brand sales of sherbet in the U.S., 2005 and 2007
• Brand Share--Frozen Yogurt
• Key points
• The joy of soy--Turtle Mountain gains traction
• Forward-thinking brands adding functionality to products
• Dieters turn to Häagen-Dazs for its indulgent characteristics
  • Figure 19: FDMx brand sales of frozen yogurt in the U.S., 2005 and 2007
• Brand Qualities
• Standard--Unilever leads with traditional, fun and increasingly health-oriented products
  • Figure 20: Klondike Bar, 2007
  • Figure 21: Klondike Bar, 200
• Premium--leaders market congruent product lines
• Super-premium--indulgent defined differently
• Innovation and Innovators
• New products focus on premium positioning
• "Mix-in" indulgence
• Provenance
• Ethnic Influences
• Health and wellness drives innovation
• Portion control
• Functional innovations
• Organic and ethical ice cream
  • Figure 22: Top 10 new ice cream & novelties product launches* by product claim and year, 2005-07
• Advertising and Promotion
• Overview
• Healthy indulgence
  • Figure 23: Edy' s Slow Churned, 2008
  • Figure 24: Breyers Double Churned, 2008
• Small size
  • Figure 25: Blue Bunny Supremes, 2008
  • Figure 26: Blue Bunny Supremes, 2008
  • Figure 27: Edy' s Dibs, 2008
• Premium
  • Figure 28: Breyers All Natural, 2008
• Usage
  • Figure 29: Usage of ice cream, frozen novelties, sherbert, frozen yogurt, gelato, and custard, by gender, March 2008
  • Figure 30: Usage of ice cream, frozen novelties, sherbert, frozen yogurt, gelato, and custard, by age, March 2008
  • Figure 31: Usage of ice cream, frozen novelties, sherbert, frozen yogurt, gelato, and custard, by HH income, March 2008
• Trended usage of ice cream and sherbet
  • Figure 32: Household usage of ice cream and sherbet, 2003-07
• Trended usage of frozen yogurt
  • Figure 33: Household usage of frozen yogurt, 2003-07
• Trended usage of frozen novelties
  • Figure 34: Household usage of frozen novelties, 2003-07
• Brand Usage and Purchasing Habits
• Ice cream brand usage
  • Figure 35: Top 10 brands of ice cream used by households, 2006 and 2007
  • Figure 36: Top 10 brands of ice cream used by households, by HH income, May 2006-June 2007
  • Figure 37: Top 10 brands of ice cream used by households, by race/ethnicity, May 2006-June 2007
• Frozen novelty brand usage
  • Figure 38: Top 10 brands of frozen novelties used by households, race/ethnicity, May 2006-June 2007
• Ice cream brand purchasing patterns
  • Figure 39: Purchasing habits of respondents who have bought ice cream in past year, by gender, 2006 and 2007
• Ice Cream Purchase Venues
  • Figure 40: Source of ice cream for at home consumption, March 2008
• Ice Cream Usage Patterns, Attributes, and Types
• How ice cream is used
  • Figure 41: How ice cream is used, by gender, March 2008
  • Figure 42: How ice cream is used, by age, March 2008
• Ice cream attributes
  • Figure 43: Ice cream attributes, by gender, March 2008
  • Figure 44: Ice cream attributes, by age, March 2008
• Light and regular usage compared to last year
  • Figure 45: Light and regular ice cream use compared to last year, by gender, March 2008
  • Figure 46: Light and regular ice cream use compared to last year, by age, March 2008
• Attitudes of Frozen Yogurt Eaters
  • Figure 47: attitudes of frozen yogurt eaters, by age, 2007 and 2008
• Attitudes Toward Gelato
  • Figure 48: Reasons for eating gelato, by gender, March 2008
• Other Attitudes
  • Figure 49: Attitudes toward customization, fruit content, ice cream shop quality, and gelato, by race/ethnicity, March 2008
  • Figure 50: Attitudes toward prepackaged candy "mix-ins," by gender, March 2008
  • Figure 51: Attitudes toward prepackaged candy "mix-ins," by HH income, March 2008
  • Figure 52: Attitudes toward prepackaged nut "mix-ins," by race/ethnicity, March 2008
  • Figure 53: Attitudes toward ice cream/yogurt with green tea, by age, March 2008
• Appendix: Mid-Level Brand Share Tables
• Ice cream
  • Figure 69: FDMx mid-level brand sales of ice cream in the U.S., 2005 and 2007
• Frozen novelties
  • Figure 70: FDMx mid-level brand sales of frozen novelties in the U.S., 2005 and 2007
• Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables
• Attitudes of frozen yogurt eaters
  • Figure 71: attitudes of frozen yogurt eaters, by HH income, March 2008
• Appendix: Trade Associations