Global Assessment of Satellite Demand, 4th Edition

Achieving the highest growth rate of any market segment for the coming years, Ku-band video services such as distribution for free-to-air and cable headends, Direct-To-Home (DTH), contribution and occasional use are certainly the highlight of the global commercial satellite market. Should NSR' s forecasts hold true, over 500 36-MHz transponder equivalents of Ku-band capacity will be added to global capacity demand between 2004 and 2008 with half of these transponders coming from red hot DTH markets alone. Without exception, every region of the world is showing sustained growth from DTH, and NSR sees no reason for this to change through 2012.

Yet, the classic telephony & carrier market, which still accounts for 18% of all leased commercial C-band and Ku-band capacity, remains weak and it has only been robust demand for cellular backhaul services in many regions that has offset the slow decline in traditional point-to-point voice and other non-IP data traffic. Further, the industry has stumbled on a number of new and promising markets, Internet access services to commercial airlines immediately come to mind, which hold the promise for important new demand. While NSR does believe this specific segment will eventually take off, more than one individual in the industry has asked the question of what can satellites really do well besides video delivery.

One possible answer is consumer-class satellite broadband services with the recent success of HughesNet, WildBlue and Telesat Canada in North America inspiring renewed hopes of developing these markets in Europe and elsewhere around the globe. Another response is that anything related to mobility, be it voice, data or video to a car, plane, boat or handset, will be the permanent domain of satellites in a world where a quickly growing number of people expect to have whatever they want wherever they are. Still NSR returns to the video markets as the bedrock of the industry and contends that growth of standard definition (SD) and high definition (HD) channels for all types of TV programming will have the largest and most long-standing impact on the greatest number of satellite operators in the world for at least the next six years.

The Most Complete and Most Widely Referenced Satellite Transponder Analysis

The reality of the commercial satellite market is that it is a complex amalgam of many different regional markets, with each region having a distinct set of trends that dictates what opportunities are available to the greater commercial satellite industry. This new and completely updated version of NSR' s Global Assessment of Satellite Demand (GASD) study digs into the specific details of these trends in twelve individual regional markets around the world. Built upon an assessment of C, Ku and Ka-band commercial satellite transponder demand using a bottom-up approach, a solid foundation of data is provided to underpin NSR' s evaluation of seven key applications in the dozen regional markets investigated. The GASD 4th Edition study delves into the all important video markets, investigates the traditional telephony & carrier markets, probes broadband and VSAT services, and analyzes the potential of a number of emerging applications.

• North America
• Central America & Caribbean
• South America
• Atlantic Ocean Region
• Western Europe
• Central & Eastern Europe
• Middle East & Norht Africa
• Sub-Saharan Africa
• East Asia
• South Asia
• Southeast Asia
• Pacific Ocean Region

Some of the complexities of the commercial satellite market bear noting. In North America and Western Europe, the addition of over 100 HD channels in 2006 for C-band and Ku-band video distribution and DTH services on commercial capacity was significantly offset by the loss of about 30 analog channels this same year. These two major markets, accounting for 21% and 13% of the global number of leased transponders, are unfortunately seeing the enormous benefits of HD being partially eroded by analog to digital transition, though NSR expects the situation to turn around shortly.

Elsewhere, NSR has seen demand growth delayed in markets like South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa because of lack of supply. This in turn is leading to a wave of satellite operators rushing to launch new capacity to capture this demand and even raising the specter of potential oversupply two to three years down the line.

In order to capture and illustrate this level of detailed analysis for each regional market, NSR has performed over 300 unique forecasts in the GASD 4th Edition study enabling it to provide the level of granularity that is essential in truly understanding the directions the commercial satellite market will take in the coming six years.

Continued Unmatched Value

Everything that was included in the prior three editions of the GASD study can be found again in this completely revised fourth edition. Beyond the many forecasts and detailed market assessments, NSR has maintained a consistency in its methodology between the studies so that they are readily comparable. NSR continues to provide a complete assessment of where and how its market assessments have changed between this edition and the prior edition of the study. NSR considers it essential that we illustrate what has been altered in the market and what has not so that the inevitable evolution of the commercial satellite market can be traced from year-to-year.

While the forecast of transponder supply and demand are at the heart of any assessment of the commercial geostationary satellite market, it is NSR' s view that this study is as much a tool to be used by our clients in their own internal assessments of the industry as it is a reflection of NSR' s outlook on the modalities of this market' s development. Going beyond NSR' s trademark of providing detailed market analysis and a clear point-by-point explanation on how the market forecasts are developed, a fundamental part of this study is the provision of extensive Excel files with data and charts so the client can easily use this work as a basis for their own internal market projections. Further, this study is fully coordinated with NSR' s Broadband Satellite Markets 6th Edition, Government and Military Demand on Commercial Satellites 4th Edition, IPTV via Satellite: 2nd Edition, Mobile Satellite Services 3rd Edition and Cellular Backhaul via Satellite studies such that the whole forms a complete library of research and forecasts on the commercial and military satellite markets.

One Size Does Not Fit All

NSR' s clients are varied, and we understand you have a variety of needs. To suit your individual requirements, the Global Assessment of Satellite Demand, 4th Edition study can be tailored to provide you with the data you desire and leave out that which is not of use. If your company does not require our detailed analysis and extensive forecast of all 12 regional markets, then choose only the 4 regions that best suit your needs. Of course, with the tailored report, you will still receive the executive summary, the global market overview chapter (Ch. 1) and the methodology chapter (Ch. 2) along with the Excel files for the four regions you have selected.