New Business Models for the Transpacific & Asia Pacific Submarine Cable Industry Revival

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

• 1.1 Report Aims
• 1.2 Report Structure and Methodology
• 1.3 Carrier Analysis
• 1.4 Demand Forecasts
• 1.5 Competitor Market Share Forecasts
• 1.6 Upgrade and New System Forecasts

Chapter 2 - Introduction

• 2.1 Purpose of the Report
• 2.2 Report Scope
• 2.3 Methodology

Chapter 3 - New Business Models for the Asia Pacific Submarine Cable Industry

• 3.1 Why did the "Private Cable" model not work in Asia Pacific?
  • 3.1.1 Level 3 Case Study
  • 3.1.2 Asia Global Crossing Case Study
  • 3.1.3 FLAG Telecom Case Study
  • 3.1.4 360networks Case Study
  • 3.1.5 Case Study Conclusions
• 3.2 The New Commercial Environment in Asia Pacific
• 3.3 Future Asia Pacific Submarine Cable business models
  • 3.3.1 Financing
  • 3.3.2 Scale & Scope
  • 3.3.3 Ownership

Chapter 4 -  Country-Specific Demand Forecasts for Asia Pacific

• 4.1 Introduction
• 4.2 Methodology & Assumptions
  • 4.2.1 Internet Demand
  • 4.2.2 Corporate Data Demand
  • 4.2.3 Voice Traffic Demand
• 4.3 Country-Specific Forecasts (see also Appendix 1)
  • American Samoa
  • Australia
  • Bangladesh
  • Brunei Darussalam
  • Cambodia
  • China
  • Fiji
  • French Polynesia
  • Guam
  • Hongkong
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Japan
  • Kiribati
  • South Korea
  • Lao
  • Macau
  • Malaysia
  • Maldives
  • Marshall Islands
  • Micronesia
  • Myanmar
  • New Caledonia
  • New Zealand
  • Pakistan
  • Papua New Guinea
  • Philippines
  • Singapore
  • Solomon Islands
  • Sri Lanka
  • Taiwan
  • Thailand
  • Tonga
  • Vanuatu
  • Vietnam
  • W. Samoa
• 4.4 Regional Summary

Chapter 5 - Carrier Analysis

• 5.1 Introduction
• 5.2 Methodology & Assumptions
  • 5.2.1 Connectivity Index
    • 5.2.1.1 Design Capacity
    • 5.2.1.2 Internal Sales
    • 5.2.1.3 Countries Connected
    • 5.2.1.4 Backhaul Availability
    • 5.2.1.5 Restructured Companies
    • 5.2.1.6 Cable CI
    • 5.2.1.7 Company CI
  • 5.2.2 Competitor Market Share Assessments
• 5.3 Competitor Market Share assessments
  • 5.3.1 Transpacific
    • 5.3.1.1 Competitor CI's
    • 5.3.1.2 Company CI's
    • 5.3.1.3 Competitor Market Shares
  • 5.3.2 Asia Pacific
    • 5.3.2.1 Competitor CI's
    • 5.3.2.2 Company CI's
    • 5.3.2.3 Competitor Market Shares

Chapter 6 - Supply-Demand Balance Forecast

• 6.1 Introduction
• 6.2 Methodology & Assumptions
  • 6.2.1 Transpacific
    • 6.2.1.1 Supply
    • 6.2.1.2 Direct Demand
    • 6.2.1.3 Transit Demand
    • 6.2.1.4 Potential Demand
    • 6.2.1.5 Supply-Demand Balance
    • 6.2.1.6 Upgrade Schedule
  • 6.2.2 Asia Pacific
    • 6.2.2.1 Supply
    • 6.2.2.2 Intra-regional Demand
    • 6.2.2.3 Transpacific Transit Demand
    • 6.2.2.4 Potential Demand
    • 6.2.2.5 Supply-Demand Balance
    • 6.2.2.6 Upgrade Schedule
• 6.3 Forecast Supply vs. Demand Balances
  • 6.3.1 Transpacific
    • 6.3.1.1 Upgrade Schedule
    • 6.3.1.2 Forecast Supply
  • 6.3.2 Asia Pacific
    • 6.3.2.1 Upgrade Schedule
    • 6.3.2.2 Forecast Supply
• 6.4 Forecast New Installations
  • 6.4.1 Transpacific
  • 6.4.2 Asia Pacific
• 6.5 Conclusion

Chapter 7 - Conclusion

• 7.1 Finance
  • 7.1.1 Availability
  • 7.1.2 Equity vs. Debt
• 7.2 Demand
  • 7.2.1 Leading Countries
  • 7.2.2 Demand Profile
  • 7.2.3 Access Speed vs. Bandwidth Usage
• 7.3 Competition
  • 7.3.1 De-regulation
  • 7.3.2 Competitive Strategies
  • 7.3.3 Transpacific Competition
  • 7.3.4 Asia Pacific Regional Competition
• 7.4 Supply-Demand Balances
  • 7.4.1 Transpacific Supply-Demand Balance
  • 7.4.2 Asia Pacific Supply-Demand Balance
• 7.5 New Construction
  • 7.5.1 New Transpacific Systems
  • 7.5.2 New Asia Pacific Regional Systems
• 7.6 Future Business Models

Appendices

• Appendix I - Detailed breakdown of demand assumptions and forecasts by country
• Appendix II - Transpacific Competitors
• Appendix III - Asia Pacific Competitors
• Appendix IV - Detailed breakdown of forecast new installation & upgrade schedule

List of Exhibits

Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

• 1.1 Asia Pacific "Private" Submarine Cable Ventures' Debt Ratios 1998-2002
• 1.2 Forecast Transpacific & Asia Pacific Total Demand for Submarine Capacity 2002-12
• 1.3 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - All Asia Pacific
• 1.4 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - All Asia Pacific
• 1.5 Forecast Demand for Transpacific Submarine Capacity in Leading Asia Pacific Countries 2002-12
• 1.6 Forecast Demand for Asia Pacific Intra-Regional Submarine Capacity in Leading Asia Pacific Countries 2002-12
• 1.7 Forecast Transpacific Demand Distribution 2002-12
• 1.8 Forecast Transpacific Demand by Country Seeking to Transit Asia Pacific Cables 2002-12
• 1.9 Forecast Evolution of Transpacific Competitor Market Shares 2002-12
• 1.10 Forecast Asia Pacific Intra-Regional Demand Distribution 2002-12
• 1.11 Forecast Evolution of Asia Pacific Competitor Market Shares 2002-12
• 1.12 Forecast Supply-Demand Balances on the Transpacific Route and in the Asia Pacific Region 2002-12
• 1.13 Forecast Transpacific & Asia Pacific Regional Satisfiable & Unsatisfiable Demand 2002-12
• 1.14 Forecast Transpacific & Asia Pacific Total Upgrade Activity 2003-12

Chapter 2 - Introduction

• 2.1 Diagrammatic Representation of Pioneer Submarine Cable Capacity Demand-Supply and Competitor Analysis Models

Chapter 3 - New Business Models for the Asia Pacific Submarine Cable Industry

• 3.1 Level 3 Asia Pacific Cable Connectivity
• 3.2 Level 3 Financial Indicators 1998-2002
• 3.3 Comparison of Selected Carrier Profitability (Earnings per share) 1998-2002
• 3.4 Asia Global Crossing Asia Pacific Cable Connectivity
• 3.5 Asia Global Crossing Financial Indicators 1998-2002
• 3.6 Comparison of Selected Carrier Revenues 1998-2002
• 3.7 FLAG Telecom Asia Pacific Cable Connectivity
• 3.8 FLAG Telecom Financial Indicators 1998-2002
• 3.9 Comparison of Selected Carrier Debt Ratios 1998-2002
• 3.10 360networks Planned Asia Pacific Cable Connectivity
• 3.11 360networks Financial Indicators 1998-2002
• 3.12 Comparison of Selected Carriers' Liquidity Levels (Acid Test) 1998-2002

Chapter 4 - Specific Demand Forecasts for Asia Pacific

• 4.1 Forecast Asia Pacific Dial-up & Broadband Penetration 2001-12
• 4.2 Forecast Evolution of Average Broadband Access Speeds in Developed and Lesser Developed Asia Pacific Countries 2001-12
• 4.3 Forecast Asia Pacific Average Access Speed (All Users) 2001-2012
• 4.4 Forecast Evolution of Optimal Application Bandwidth Requirements 2001-12
• 4.5 Forecast Asia Pacific Bandwidth per User by Country 2001-12
• 4.6 U.S.-originated Private Line Activations 1995-2001 in Leading Asia Pacific Countries
• 4.7 Forecast Trend in Asia Pacific Corporate Data Demand Satisfied by IP VPN 2002-12
• 4.8 Total Asia Pacific Voice Traffic Demand 1995-2000
• 4.9 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - American Samoa
• 4.10 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - American Samoa
• 4.11 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Australia
• 4.12 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Australia
• 4.13 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Bangladesh
• 4.14 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Bangladesh
• 4.15 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Brunei Darussalam
• 4.16 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Brunei Darussalam
• 4.17 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Cambodia
• 4.18 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Cambodia
• 4.19 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - China
• 4.20 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - China
• 4.21 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Fiji
• 4.22 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Fiji
• 4.23 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - French Polynesia
• 4.24 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - French Polynesia
• 4.25 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Guam
• 4.26 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Guam
• 4.27 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Hongkong
• 4.28 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Hongkong
• 4.29 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - India
• 4.30 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - India
• 4.31 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Indonesia
• 4.32 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Indonesia
• 4.33 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Japan
• 4.34 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Japan
• 4.35 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Kiribati
• 4.36 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Kiribati
• 4.37 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Korea, S.
• 4.38 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Korea, S.
• 4.39 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Lao P.D.R.
• 4.40 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Lao P.D.R.
• 4.41 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Macau
• 4.42 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Macau
• 4.43 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Malaysia
• 4.44 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Malaysia
• 4.45 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Maldives
• 4.46 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Maldives
• 4.47 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Marshall Islands
• 4.48 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Marshall Islands
• 4.49 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Micronesia (Fed. States of)
• 4.50 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Micronesia (Fed. States of)
• 4.51 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Myanmar
• 4.52 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Myanmar
• 4.53 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - New Caledonia
• 4.54 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - New Caledonia
• 4.55 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - New Zealand
• 4.56 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - New Zealand
• 4.57 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Pakistan
• 4.58 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Pakistan
• 4.59 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Papua New Guinea
• 4.60 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Papua New Guinea
• 4.61 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Philippines
• 4.62 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Philippines
• 4.63 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Singapore
• 4.64 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Singapore
• 4.65 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Solomon Islands
• 4.66 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Solomon Islands
• 4.67 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Sri Lanka
• 4.68 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Sri Lanka
• 4.69 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Taiwan
• 4.70 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Taiwan
• 4.71 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Thailand
• 4.72 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Thailand
• 4.73 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Tonga
• 4.74 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Tonga
• 4.75 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Vanuatu
• 4.76 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Vanuatu
• 4.77 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Vietnam
• 4.78 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Vietnam
• 4.79 Forecast Transpacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Bandwidth per User - Western Samoa
• 4.80 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand for Submarine Capacity & Average Access Speed - Western Samoa
• 4.81 Transpacific Forecast Total Cumulative Demand for Regional Submarine Capacity 2002-12
• 4.82 Asia Pacific Forecast Total Cumulative Demand for Regional Submarine Capacity 2002-12
• 4.83 Forecast Demand for Transpacific Submarine Capacity in Leading Asia Pacific Countries 2002-12
• 4.84 Forecast Transpacific & Asia Pacific Submarine Cable Capacity Demand Profiles
• 4.85 Forecast Evolution of Average Asia Pacific Internet Access Speed and Bandwidth per User

Chapter 5 - Supply-Demand Balance Forecast

• 5.1 Competitor Connectivity Index Template
• 5.2 Transpacific Competitor Connectivity Indices (CI's) in 2002
• 5.3 Transpacific Competitor Connectivity Indices (CI's) in 2003
• 5.4 Transpacific Company Connectivity Indices (CI's) in 2002
• 5.5 Transpacific Company Connectivity Indices (CI's) in 2003
• 5.6 Introduction of Tyco Transpacific : Forecast Impact on Transpacific Competitor Market Shares
• 5.7 Forecast Evolution of Transpacific Competitor Market Shares 2002-12
• 5.8 Forecast Distribution of Transpacific Demand by Competitor 2002-12
• 5.9 Forecast Transpacific Demand Profile by Competitor 2002-12 inc. Unsatisfied Demand
• 5.10 Breakdown of Forecast Transpacific Demand Profile by Competitor 2002-12
• 5.11 Asia Pacific Competitor Connectivity Indices (CI's) in 2002
• 5.12 Asia Pacific Competitor Connectivity Indices (CI's) in 2003
• 5.13 Asia Pacific Competitor Connectivity Indices (CI's) in 2004+
• 5.14 Asia Pacific Leading Company Connectivity Indices (CI's) in 2002
• 5.15 Asia Pacific Leading Company Connectivity Indices (CI's) in 2003
• 5.16 Asia Pacific Leading Company Connectivity Indices (CI's) in 2004
• 5.17 Introduction of SEA-ME-WE-4 : Impact on Asia Pacific Competitor Market Shares
• 5.18 Forecast Evolution of Asia Pacific Competitor Market Shares 2002-12
• 5.19 Forecast Distribution of Asia Pacific Regional Demand by Competitor 2002-12
• 5.20 Forecast Asia Pacific Demand Profile by Competitor 2002-12 inc. Unsatisfied Demand
• 5.21 Breakdown of Forecast Asia Pacific Demand Profile by Competitor 2002-12

Chapter 6 - Carrier Analysis

• 6.1 Direct Transpacific Submarine Cable Connections By Country
• 6.2 Forecast Transpacific Upgrade Schedule 2003-12
• 6.3 Forecast Transpacific Upgrade Schedule 2003-12 by Cable
• 6.4 Forecast Transpacific Submarine Capacity Availability 2002-12
• 6.5 Forecast Transpacific Activated Submarine Capacity in Leading Countries 2002-12
• 6.6 Forecast Surplus Transpacific Capacity in Leading Countries 2002-12
• 6.7 Forecast Transpacific Submarine Capacity Supply-Demand Balance 2002-12
• 6.8 Forecast Transpacific Demand by Country Seeking to Transit Asia Pacific Cables 2002-12
• 6.9 Surplus Transpacific Demand which could be transported over an Asia Pacific connection 2002-12
• 6.10 Intra-regional Submarine Cable Connections By Country
• 6.11 Forecast Asia Pacific Upgrade Schedule 2003-12
• 6.12 Forecast Asia Pacific Upgrade Schedule 2003-12 by Cable
• 6.13 Forecast Asia Pacific Submarine Capacity Availability 2002-12
• 6.14 Forecast Asia Pacific Activated Regional Submarine Capacity in Leading Countries 2002-12
• 6.15 Forecast Surplus Asia Pacific Capacity in Leading Countries 2002-12
• 6.16 Forecast Asia Pacific Submarine Capacity Supply-Demand Balance 2002-12
• 6.17 Transpacific Transit Demand as a Percentage of Total Asia Pacific Demand & Supply 2002-12
• 6.18 Forecast Transpacific Supply-Demand Balance 2002-12
• 6.19 Forecast Asia Pacific Supply-Demand Balance 2002-12