Fixed-Mobile Convergence: What Works, What Doesn't, and the MNO's Path to Substitution

Table of Contents

Acronyms and Abbreviations

Executive Summary

Introduction

Section 1: Distinguishing Fixed-Mobile Substitution, Replacement, and Convergence

• From FMS to FMC

Section 2: Can MNOs Afford to Wait for FMC?

• MNOs under Pressure: Looking for Growth, Wherever It May Be
• Looking for Solutions (1): Emerging Markets: Attractive, but No Longer Cheap
• Looking for Solutions (2): Mobile Data, So Close- Yet so Far
• Looking for Solutions (3): Fixed-Mobile Substitution Is the Low-hanging Fruit
• Final Incentive: Fixed Telcos Are Pushing FMC More Aggressively Than MNOs
• The Case Against FMC: Do MNOs Only Need to Slash Prices?
• MNOs Offering Broadband: Another Option that Has a Ways to Go
• The MNO Case for FMC: The Cost Side of Traffic Spikes, the Flip Side of Low Price Strategies, and the Profitability of Mobile Corporate Services
• Our Call: MNOs Can' t Afford to Be Complacent About FMC

Section 3: FMC Technologies: What Is Ready, What Is Not

• The Readiness Factor: Disruptiveness and CPE Availability
• Our Conclusion: Not Reassuring
• Option Available Now: Home Zone/Cell ID: Ideal Fixed-Mobile Substitution Technology for Voice18
• Option Available Later: Femtocells: Fixed Indoor Coverage and Enabling Mobile Broadband in the Home
• Femtocell Readiness: Horizon 2008, and the Set-top Box Opportunity
• UMA: The Most Mature FMC Technology, but Still a Lot of Convincing to Do
• Dual-Mode SIP: Pre-IMS, Fixed-centric for now, and an Alternative to UMA
• Voice Call Continuity: Horizon 2008-09
• Conclusion: Mobile-centric Consumer FMC Choices Are Down to Home Zone and UMA Today and Femtocells Tomorrow

Section 4: FMC Case Study Analysis: What Has Worked, What Hasn' t

• CASE STUDY: FMC Initial Failures: T-One, Onephone, Unica, and Others
• CASE STUDY: Aggressive FMC Push by Orange Starts Paying Off
• CASE STUDY: FMC Helps Brasil Telecom' s Fixed and Mobile

Section 5: What Operators Can Do While Waiting for FMC, and FMC Next Steps

• FMC: A Matter of When, Not If
• Despite Slow FMC Start, Here Is why We Think Early Launches Are Good
• One Size Will Not Fit All
• However, the Question Remains: What to Do in the Meantime?
• CASE STUDY: Commercial Convergence Services

Section 6: FMC Adoption and Revenue Forecasts

• FMC Subscribers- Slow Initial Growth
• Next for FMC: Competing with Triple- and Quad-play for the Household
• FMC Revenue- Suitably Small