[Report] Communications Markets in Iran (Iran Intelligence Report)

Executive summary

Pyramid Research expects Iran to be the fastest-growing country in the Middle East region, with a compound annual growth rate of 19% between 2007 and 2012. This will result in more than a tripling of service revenues, from the current $4bn to $13bn by 2012.
We expect rapid growth despite a lack of competition in the market. Only the broadband sector is truly competitive, while mobile operators are restricted in their development or controlled by the government. The availability of WiMAX licenses and VoIP deregulation will be major drivers in this segment.
Growth will be significant in the data markets. Broadband and Internet take-up is booming, while 2.5G services also are growing.
There still is uncertainty over 3G licenses. Pyramid Research assumes that 3G licenses will be auctioned in mid-2008, providing opportunities for infrastructure vendors, content developers, and application providers.
Political and economic risks are increasing, and there is some uncertainty, given international concerns over the development of nuclear weapons and the possibility of sanctions or other international actions.