The European Bakery & Cereals Outlook to 2006

Executive Summary

• Bakery and cereals in Europe to 2006
• Bakery and cereals in France to 2006
• Bakery and cereals in Germany to 2006
• Bakery and cereals in Italy to 2006
• Bakery and cereals in Spain to 2006
• Bakery and cereals in the UK to 2006

Chapter 1 Introduction

• The aim of this report
• Country coverage in this report
• Chapter 2 Bakery and Cereals in Europe to 2006
• Summary
• Introduction
• Market dynamics
• Germany, UK and France dominate European markets
• Italy, Spain and the UK are the fastest growing markets

Chapter 3 Bakery and Cereals in France to 2006

• Summary
• Market dynamics
• Bread and rolls dominate French bakery markets
• Volumes set to reach 4.4 billion kg by 2006
• Standard grocers account for almost 50% of retail sales
• Leading sectors to 2006
• Bread and rolls unlikely to show strong growth
• Breakfast cereal markets are highly competitive
• Brossard leads with over one-third of the sector share
• Morning goods set to grow, but at a declining rate
• Savoury biscuits growth driven by innovation in flavours
• Sweet biscuit markets have reached maturity

Chapter 4 Bakery and Cereals in Germany to 2006

• Summary
• Market dynamics
• Health conscious consumers value traditional foods
• Bread and rolls make up three-quarters of the market
• Bakeries are the most important retail channel
• Leading sectors to 2006
• Bread and rolls set for small, stable growth
• Most sectors of the cereals market are relatively stagnant
• Germans move away from traditional artisanal producers
• Morning goods set for steady growth
• Health awareness bolsters sales of savoury biscuits
• Small producers characterise the sweet biscuits sector
• Typical purchasers of sweet biscuits in Germany

Chapter 5 Bakery and Cereals in Italy to 2006

• Summary
• Market dynamics
• Bakery and cereals to reach $10.5 billion by 2006
• Savoury biscuits set to struggle for volume growth
• Standard grocers have stolen retail share from bakeries
• Leading sectors to 2006
• Artisanal produce continues to dominate in bread and rolls
• Italy represents an opportunity for growth in cereals
• In-store sales of cakes and pastries are small in Italy
• Morning goods markets set for declining growth rates
• Savoury biscuit markets are mature and will grow slowly
• Barilla is the most important player in sweet biscuits

Chapter 6 Bakery and Cereals in Spain to 2006

• Summary
• Market dynamics
• Bread and rolls will remain dominant through to 2006
• All sectors will rise in volume over the 2002?2006 period
• Grocers sell almost 80% of bakery products in Spain
• Leading sectors to 2006
• One of the lowest per capita consumption levels in Europe
• Breakfast cereals remain a novelty in Spain
• Cakes and pastries set for steady growth
• Morning goods continue to grow, but at declining rates
• Growth driven by NPD and promotional spending
• Advertising and promotional support are being increased

Chapter 7 Bakery and Cereals in the UK to 2006

• Summary
• Market dynamics
• Market set to reach $15.4 billion in 2006
• Bread and rolls make up almost two-thirds of the market
• Standard grocers are the most popular retail outlet
• Leading sectors to 2006
• Bread and rolls demonstrates good long-term potential
• Breakfast cereals growth is decelerating
• Growth lies in innovation and product differentiation
• Morning goods set for small, steady growth
• Savoury biscuits have strong snack positioning
• Sweet biscuits move beyond traditional approaches

Chapter 8 Appendix

• Category segmentation table
• Category definitions
• Distribution definitions
• Index

List of Figures

Figure 3.1: France bakery and cereals sales value and value forecast (US$ m), by category, 1996-2006

Figure 3.2: France bakery and cereals sales volume and volume forecast (kg m), by category, 1996-2006

Figure 4.3: Germany bakery and cereals sales value and value forecast (US$ m), by category, 1996-2006

Figure 4.4: Germany bakery and cereals sales volume and volume forecast (kg m), by category, 1996-2006

Figure 5.5: Italy bakery and cereals sales value and value forecast (US$ m), 1996-2006

Figure 5.6: Italy bakery and cereals sales volume and volume forecast (kg m), 1996-2006

Figure 6.7: Spain bakery and cereals sales value and value forecast (US$ m), by category, 1996-2006

Figure 6.8: Spain bakery and cereals sales volume and volume forecast (kg m), by category, 2002-2006

Figure 7.9: UK bakery and cereals sales value and value forecast (US$ m), by category, 1996-2006

Figure 7.10: UK bakery and cereals sales volume and volume forecast (kg m), by category, 1996-2006

List of Tables

Table 2.1: European bakery and cereal sales value (US$ m), by country, 1996-2001

Table 2.2: European bakery and cereal sales value forecast (US$ m), by country, 2002-2006

Table 2.3: European bakery and cereal sales volume (kg m), by country, 1996-2001

Table 2.4: European bakery and cereal sales volume forecast (kg m), by country, 2002-2006

Table 3.5: France bakery and cereals sales value (US$ m), by category, 1996-2001

Table 3.6: France bakery and cereals sales value forecast (US$ m), by category, 2002-2006

Table 3.7: France bakery and cereals sales volume (kg m), by category, 1996-2001

Table 3.8: France bakery and cereals sales volume forecast (kg m), by category, 2002-2006

Table 3.9: France bakery and cereals distribution (% value), by channel, 2000-2001

Table 3.10: France bread and rolls sales value forecast (US$ m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 3.11: France bread and rolls sales volume forecast (kg m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 3.12: France bread and rolls market share (% value), by company, 2000-2001

Table 3.13: France breakfast cereals sales value forecast (US$ m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 3.14: France breakfast cereals sales volume forecast (kg m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 3.15: France breakfast cereals market share (% value), by company, 2000-2001

Table 3.16: France cakes and pastries sales value forecast (US$ m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 3.17: France cakes and pastries sales volume forecast (kg m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 3.18: France cakes and pastries market share (% value), by company, 2000-2001

Table 3.19: France morning goods sales value forecast (US$ m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 3.20: France morning goods sales volume forecast (kg m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 3.21: France morning goods market share (% value), by company, 2000-2001

Table 3.22: France savoury biscuits sales value forecast (US$ m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 3.23: France savoury biscuits sales volume forecast (kg m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 3.24: France savoury biscuits market share (% value), by company, 2000-2001

Table 3.25: France sweet biscuits sales value forecast (US$ m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 3.26: France sweet biscuits sales volume forecast (kg m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 3.27: France sweet biscuits market share (% value), by company, 2000-2001

Table 4.28: Germany bakery and cereals sales value (US$ m), by category, 1996-2001

Table 4.29: Germany bakery and cereals sales value forecast (US$ m), by category, 2002-2006

Table 4.30: Germany bakery and cereals sales volume (kg m), by category, 1996-2001

Table 4.31: Germany bakery and cereals sales volume forecast (kg m), by category, 2002-2006

Table 4.32: Germany bakery and cereals distribution (% value), by channel, 2000-2001

Table 4.33: Germany bread and rolls sales value forecast (US$ m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 4.34: Germany bread and rolls sales volume forecast (kg m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 4.35: Germany bread and rolls market share (% value), by company, 2000-2001

Table 4.36: Germany breakfast cereals sales value forecast (US$ m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 4.37: Germany breakfast cereals sales volume forecast (kg m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 4.38: Germany breakfast cereals market share (% value), by company, 2000-2001

Table 4.39: Germany cakes and pastries sales value forecast (US$ m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 4.40: Germany cakes and pastries sales volume forecast (kg m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 4.41: Germany cakes and pastries market share (% value), by company, 2000-2001

Table 4.42: Germany morning goods sales value forecast (US$ m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 4.43: Germany morning goods sales volume forecast (kg m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 4.44: Germany morning goods market share (% value), by company, 2000-2001

Table 4.45: Germany savoury biscuits sales value forecast (US$ m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 4.46: Germany savoury biscuits sales volume forecast (kg m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 4.47: Germany savoury biscuits market share (% value), by company, 2000-2001

Table 4.48: Germany sweet biscuits sales value forecast (US$ m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 4.49: Germany sweet biscuits sales volume forecast (kg m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 4.50: Germany sweet biscuits market share (% value), by company, 2000-2001

Table 5.51: Italy bakery and cereals sales value (US$ m), by category, 1996-2001

Table 5.52: Italy bakery and cereals sales value forecast (US$ m), by category, 2002-2006

Table 5.53: Italy bakery and cereals sales volume (kg m), by category, 1996-2001

Table 5.54: Italy bakery and cereals sales volume forecast (kg m), by category, 2002-2006

Table 5.55: Italy bakery and cereals distribution (% value), by channel, 2000-2001

Table 5.56: Italy bread and rolls sales value forecast (US$ m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 5.57: Italy bread and rolls sales volume forecast (kg m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 5.58: Italy bread and rolls market share (% value), by company, 2000-2001

Table 5.59: Italy breakfast cereals sales value forecast (US$ m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 5.60: Italy breakfast cereals sales volume forecast (kg m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 5.61: Italy breakfast cereals market share (% value), by Company, 2000-2001

Table 5.62: Italy cakes and pastries sales value forecast (US$ m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 5.63: Italy cakes and pastries sales volume forecast (kg m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 5.64: Italy cakes and pastries market share (% value), by company, 2000-2001

Table 5.65: Italy morning goods sales value forecast (US$ m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 5.66: Italy morning goods sales volume forecast (kg m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 5.67: Italy morning goods market share (% value), by company, 2000-2001

Table 5.68: Italy savoury biscuits sales value forecast (US$ m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 5.69: Italy savoury biscuits sales volume forecast (kg m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 5.70: Italy savoury biscuits market share (% value), by company, 2000-2001

Table 5.71: Italy sweet biscuits sales value forecast (US$ m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 5.72: Italy sweet biscuits sales volume forecast (kg m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 5.73: Italy sweet biscuits market share (% value), by company, 2000-2001

Table 6.74: Spain bakery and cereals sales value (US$ m), by category, 1996-2001

Table 6.75: Spain bakery and cereals sales value forecast (US$ m), by category, 2002-2006

Table 6.76: Spain bakery and cereals sales volume (kg m), by category, 1996-2001

Table 6.77: Spain bakery and cereals sales volume forecast (kg m), by category, 2002-2006

Table 6.78: Spain bakery and cereals distribution (% value), by channel, 2000-2001

Table 6.79: Spain bread and rolls sales value forecast (US$ m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 6.80: Spain bread and rolls sales volume forecast (kg m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 6.81: Spain bread and rolls market share (% value), by company, 2000-2001

Table 6.82: Spain breakfast cereals sales value forecast (US$ m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 6.83: Spain breakfast cereals sales volume forecast (US$ m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 6.84: Spain breakfast cereals market share (% value), by company, 2000-2001

Table 6.85: Spain cakes and pastries sales value forecast (US$ m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 6.86: Spain cakes and pastries sales volume forecast (US$ m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 6.87: Spain cakes and pastries market share (% value), by company, 2000-2001

Table 6.88: Spain morning goods sales value forecast (US$ m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 6.89: Spain morning goods sales volume forecast (US$ m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 6.90: Spain morning goods market share (% value), by company, 2000-2001

Table 6.91: Spain Savoury biscuits sales value forecast (US$ m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 6.92: Spain savoury biscuits sales volume forecast (kg m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 6.93: Spain savoury biscuits market share (% value), by company, 2000-2001

Table 6.94: Spain sweet biscuits sales value forecast (US$ m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 6.95: Spain sweet biscuits sales volume forecast (US$ m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 6.96: Spain sweet biscuits market share (% value), by company, 2000-2001

Table 7.97: UK bakery and cereals sales value (US$ m), by category, 1996-2001

Table 7.98: UK bakery and cereals sales value forecast (US$ m), by category, 2002-2006

Table 7.99: UK bakery and cereals sales volume (kg m), by category, 1996-2001

Table 7.100: : UK bakery and cereals sales volume forecast (kg m), by category, 2002-2006

Table 7.101: UK bakery and cereals distribution (% value), by channel, 2000-2001

Table 7.102: UK bread and rolls sales value forecast (US$ m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 7.103: UK bread and rolls sales volume forecast (kg m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 7.104: UK bread and rolls market share (% value), by company, 2000-2001

Table 7.105: UK breakfast cereals sales value forecast (US$ m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 7.106: UK breakfast cereals sales volume forecast (kg m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 7.107: UK breakfast cereals market share (% value), by company, 2000-2001

Table 7.108: UK cakes and pastries sales value forecast (US$ m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 7.109: UK cakes and pastries sales volume forecast (US$ m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 7.110: UK cakes and pastries market share (% value), by company, 2000-2001

Table 7.111: UK morning goods sales value forecast (US$ m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 7.112: UK morning goods sales volume forecast (kg m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 7.113: UK morning goods market share (% value), by company, 2000-2001

Table 7.114: UK savoury biscuits sales value forecast (US$ m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 7.115: UK savoury biscuits sales volume forecast (kg m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 7.116: UK savoury biscuits market share (% value), by company, 2000-2001

Table 7.117: UK sweet biscuits sales value forecast (US$ m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 7.118: UK sweet biscuits sales volume forecast (US$ m), by segment, 2002-2006

Table 7.119: UK sweet biscuits market share (% value), by company, 2000-2001