South African Banking Sector Analysis

Table of Contents

1. Analyst View

2. South Africa - A Lucrative Banking Destination

• 2.1 Economic Development
• 2.2 Bankable Households
• 2.3 Employment
• 2.4 Black Middle Class Population
• 2.5 FSC & Mzansi Accounts
• 2.6 FDI Inflows
• 2.7 Leasing Finance & Corporate Credit
• 2.8 Mortgage Loans

3. South Africa Banking - An Overview

4. Key Performance Indicators

• 4.1 Bank Assets
• 4.2 Bank Loans
  • 4.2.1 Mortgage Loans
  • 4.2.2 Foreign Loans
  • 4.2.3 Installment Debtors
  • 4.2.4 Overdrafts & Loans
  • 4.2.5 Resale Agreements
  • 4.2.6 Credit Card Debtors
• 4.3 Bank Deposits
  • 4.3.1 Residents
  • 4.3.2 Non-residents
• 4.4 Bank Profitability & Investment Strategy
• 4.5 Payment Instruments
  • 4.5.1 Credit Card
  • 4.5.2 ATMs
  • 4.5.3 Cheque

5. Key Regulatory Developments

6. Industry Analysis

• 6.1 Risk Factors
• 6.2 Trend Analysis
• 6.3 Growth Prospects
  • 6.3.1 Partnership with Fuel Stakeholders
  • 6.3.2 Private Banking
  • 6.3.3 Card-less ATMs
  • 6.3.4 Automotive Industry
  • 6.3.5 Consumer Durable Market
  • 6.3.6 Financial Cards
  • 6.3.7 Internet Banking
  • 6.3.8 Mobile Banking
• 6.4 Growth Hurdles
  • 6.4.1 Increasing NPLs
  • 6.4.2 Broader Access to Banking Facilities
  • 6.4.3 Declining Affordability of Housing Loans
  • 6.4.4 Concentrated Banking System
  • 6.4.5 Declining Population

7. Future Outlook (2008-2012)

8. Key Players

• 8.1 Domestic Players
  • 8.1.1 ABSA Group Limited
  • 8.1.2 Standard Bank Group Limited
  • 8.1.3 FirstRand Limited
  • 8.1.4 Nedbank Group Limited
  • 8.1.5 Investec Limited
• 8.2 Foreign Players
  • 8.2.1 Citibank N.A.
  • 8.2.2 Deutsche Bank AG
  • 8.2.3 ABN AMRO Holding N.V.
  • 8.2.4 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
  • 8.2.5 State Bank of India

List of Figures:

• Figure 2-1: South Africa - Forecast for Nominal GDP (in Billion US$), 2007*-2011
• Figure 2-2: South Africa - Forecast for Number of Bankable Households* (in ‘000), 2009-2012
• Figure 2-3: South Africa - Employment (in Million), 2003-2006
• Figure 2-4: South Africa - Per Head Disposable Income (in US$), 2002-2007E
• Figure 2-5: South Africa - Bank Accounts Penetration* (%), 2006 & 2007
• Figure 2-6: South Africa - Growth in Mortgage Loans (%), 2003-2007
• Figure 4-1: South Africa - Bank Assets (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2007
• Figure 4-2: South Africa - Breakup of Bank Assets (%), 2007
• Figure 4-3: South Africa - Bank Loans & Advances* (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2007
• Figure 4-4: South Africa - Breakup of Bank Loans & Advances (%), 2007
• Figure 4-5: South Africa - Mortgage Advances (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2007
• Figure 4-6: South Africa - Share of Mortgage Loans by Major Banks (%), 2006 & 2007
• Figure 4-7: South Africa - Foreign Currency Loans & Advances (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2007
• Figure 4-8: South Africa - Installment Debtors* (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2007
• Figure 4-9: South Africa - Share of Installment Finance by Major Banks (%), 2006 & 2007
• Figure 4-10: South Africa - Overdrafts & Loans (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2007
• Figure 4-11: South Africa - Share of Overdrafts & Other Loans by Major Banks (%), 2006 & 2007
• Figure 4-12: South Africa - Loans under Resale Agreements (in Billion ZAR), 2004-2007
• Figure 4-13: South Africa - Credit Card Debtors (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2007
• Figure 4-14: South Africa - Deposits with Banks* (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2007
• Figure 4-15: South Africa - Deposits with Banks by Residents (in Billion ZAR), 2003-2007
• Figure 4-16: South Africa - Deposits with Banks by Non-residents (in Billion ZAR), 2003-2007
• Figure 4-17: South Africa - Income of Banks (in Billion ZAR), 2005-2007
• Figure 4-18: South Africa - Net Income of Banks (in Billion ZAR), 2005-2007
• Figure 4-19: South Africa - Growth in Interest Income of Banks (%), 2006 & 2007
• Figure 4-20: South Africa - Investment by Banks (in Billion ZAR), 2005-2007
• Figure 4-21: South Africa - Investment Portfolio of Banks (%), 2007
• Figure 4-22: South Africa - Share of Credit Cards by Major Banks (%), 2006 & 2007
• Figure 4-23: South Africa - Number of Credit Card Transactions (in Million), 2002-2007
• Figure 4-24: South Africa - Credit Cards Transactions (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2007
• Figure 4-25: South Africa - Number of ATMs* (May 2007 & 2010F)
• Figure 4-26: South Africa - Number of Cheque Transactions* (in Million), 2002-2007
• Figure 4-27: South Africa - Cheque Transactions* (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2007
• Figure 6-1: South Africa - Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (%), 2002-2007
• Figure 6-2: South Africa - Investment-to-Deposit Ratio (%), 2002-2007
• Figure 6-3: South Africa - Loan-to-Asset Ratio (%), 2002-2007
• Figure 6-4: South Africa - Capital Adequacy Ratio (%), 2005-2007
• Figure 6-5: Africa & World - Growth in High-net-worth Population (%), 2007
• Figure 6-6: South Africa - Wealthy Women Population (in ‘000), 2006 & 2011F
• Figure 6-7: South Africa - Forecast for New Passenger Car Registration (in ‘000 Units), 2008-2012
• Figure 6-8: South Africa - Forecast for TV Set, Refrigerator & Washing Machine Sales (in ‘000 Units), 2008-2012
• Figure 6-9: South Africa - Forecast for Internet Users Penetration (%), 2008-2012
• Figure 6-10: South Africa - Forecast for Mobile Subscribers (in Million), 2007*-2011
• Figure 6-11: South Africa - Non-performing Loans (in Billion ZAR), 2006 & 2007
• Figure 6-12: South Africa - Mortgage Affordability by Household Income (in ZAR), 2005-2007 & H1 2008
• Figure 6-13: South Africa - Population Growth* (%), 2000 to 2012
• Figure 7-1: South Africa - Forecast for Bank Loans* (in Billion US$), 2008-2012
• Figure 7-2: South Africa - Forecast for Deposits with Banks* (in Billion US$), 2008-2012
• Figure 7-3: South Africa - Forecast for Bank Assets* (in Billion US$), 2008-2012
• Figure 7-4: South Africa - Forecast for Net Interest Income of Banks* (in Billion US$), 2008-2012

List of Tables:

• Table 3-1: South Africa - Top Ten Domestic Banks by Assets (in Million ZAR), H1 2007
• Table 3-2: South Africa - Top Ten Foreign Banks by Assets (in Million ZAR), H1 2007
• Table 4-1: South Africa - Breakup of Bank Assets (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2007
• Table 6-1: South Africa - H-Index of Banking System (2002-2007)
• Table 8-1: ABSA Group Limited - Key Financials (in Million ZAR), 2006 & 2007
• Table 8-2: Standard Bank of South Africa - Key Financials (in Million ZAR), 2005-2007
• Table 8-3: FirstRand Limited - Key Financials (in Million ZAR), 2006 & 2007
• Table 8-4: Nedbank Group Limited - Key Financials (in Million ZAR), 2005-2007
• Table 8-5: Investec Limited - Key Financials (in Million US$), 2005-2007
• Table 8-6: Citigroup N.A. - Key Financials (in Million US$), 2004-2006
• Table 8-7: Deutsche Bank AG - Key Financials (in Million US$), 2005-2007
• Table 8-8: ABN AMRO Holding N.V. - Key Financials (in Million US$), 2005-2007
• Table 8-9: JPMorgan Chase & Co. - Key Financials (in Million US$), 2005-2007
• Table 8-10: State Bank of India - Key Financials (in Crore INR), 2006 & 2007