Abstract
The new Roskill report on the niobium industry will be published in August
2005. It will provide up-to-date market analysis of resources, production,
consumption, end-use market trends, international trade and prices. The
niobium market is remarkably stable. The dominant position held by a very
small number of producers ensures that supply and demand are balanced and that
prices do not exhibit sharp fluctuations. The price of ferroniobium, the
principal niobium product, rarely deviates far from what is a gently upward
long-term trend, although falling in real terms. The steel industry accounts
for as much as 90% of niobium demand. In addition to a few small-scale
producers serving domestic markets in China, India and Russia, this industry
is essentially supplied by just three ferroniobium producers: CBMM and
Catalﾃ｣o, in Brazil, and Canadas Niocan. There is substantial
spare capacity. CBMM, already able to supply all world demand, has recently
announced that it is to double its production capacity. The company also has
niobium (pyrochlore) reserves sufficient for hundreds of years. This built-in
surplus of capacity has largely obviated the need to develop pyrochlore
deposits elsewhere in the world. Consumption of niobium was at a record level
in 2003 and grew further in 2004, in line with increased steel output, and is
expected to continue expanding in 2005 and 2006. Demand for niobium does not
exactly mirror trends in overall steel production. Only 10% of the total steel
produced contains niobium and the geographical distribution of consumption is
very uneven. In China, where most recent growth in steel output has arisen,
the incidence of niobium use is reported to be much lower than in the more
developed economies. There is significant potential for increased demand for
niobium in steel, from both the underlying growth in output and changes in the
product mix, from basic to more highly alloyed steels. The largest non-steel
use of niobium is in superalloys for, among others, aircraft engines and
land-based turbines. Those markets saw strong growth in the late 1990s and
into the early part of this century before experiencing a sharp fall that
resulted from an economic downturn, the events of September 2001 and SARS. The
commercial aircraft market has since begun to recover and is expected to
remain on a generally upward trend over the long term. The land-based turbine
market has not regained its earlier momentum and faces increasing competition
from other power sources. Niobium is also used in the production of
low-temperature superconductors (LTS). These have important applications in
MRI scanners and high-energy physics research. Although niobium is expected to
maintain its position in this market for at least the next decade, the
long-term prospects are rather different. Relatively recent technological
advances have led to the development of high-temperature superalloys (HTS),
which contain no niobium. These superconductors will be used in a number of
important emerging applications, such as MAGLEV trains and power transmission.
It is quite likely that their use will eventually spread to areas currently
dominated by LTS. An emerging market for niobium is in capacitors. The
industry has long had an interest in developing niobium capacitors, because of
its relatively low cost and abundant supply, but has been hampered by
technical difficulties. In recent years, however, concerns over the supply of
tantalum, has intensified research into the development of niobium capacitors
that can be used in some applications and several have been launched since the
turn of the century. Roskill predicts that they will take market share from
tantalum types in the years to come and that this use could come to rival
superalloys as a market for niobium.
The key trends, issues and developments in the market are now analysed in this
major new report from Roskill. It provides a clear insight into all areas of
the industry and an authoritative analysis of the prospects for the future.
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