Abstract
In 2004, the global supply/demand balance of iodine was in deficit and, as a
consequence, prices rose to their highest levels since 1998 and have continued
to firm during the first half of 2005. Demand is forecast to continue to rise
at an average of around 4%pa until 2010 when it is expected to reach almost
30,000t. Iodine has a very diverse number of applications in a wide variety of
industries, including in x-ray contrast media (25%), followed by biocides
(20%), catalysts (10%) and feed additives (10%). While demand for these
markets is expected to grow in coming years, significant growth is expected in
a relatively new application, liquid crystal displays (LCDs). Current LCD
technology demands the incorporation of optical polarised film (OPF) into the
display structure. The production of OPF requires iodine. This application
used about 700t of iodine in 2004, but such is the forecast growth pattern for
LCDs and hence OPF, that it is estimated that demand for iodine in LCDs could
reach 3,000t in 2010. Other applications where demand might increase over the
next 10 years include conductive polymers, fuel cells and synthetic blood,
though these developments are highly speculative. The key trends, issues and
developments in the market are analysed in this major new report from Roskill.
It provides a clear insight into the industry and its trends, and an
authoritative analysis of the prospects for the future.
What the report gives you
- Independent, in-depth research and analysis
- Essential market intelligence for successful business planning
- Detailed survey of production in 24 countries
- lUp-to-date profiles of over 130 iodine, and iodine derivatives producing
companies and their activities, including DSM Minera, SQM, Kanto Natural Gas
Development, ACF Minera and IOCHEM
- Forecasts for end-use consumption and world supply and demand
Report highlights
Currently iodine is produced in eight countries with output concentrated in
Chile, Japan and the USA. In 2004, Chilean companies controlled about half the
world's nominal capacity and produced some 61% of global production. Capacity
utilisation rates varied widely that year with Chilean plants reporting an
occupancy rate of 93%, Japan 61% and the USA 48%. By 2010, Chilean companies
plan to add a further 5,100t capacity.
Among the other producer nations, Turkmenistan is remarkable in its announced
intention to add some 1,700t of capacity to its present 650t capacity by 2010.
If this plan is achieved the country will become the third largest world
producer, at least in nameplate terms.
Several iodine producers have announced plans to add capacity, and there is a
possibility that these expansions will lead to a weakening in market prices.
The extent of this will depend on the phasing of the capacity increases and
how well they match increased market demand.
As a result of the uneven distribution of iodine production, a high proportion
of output is traded. The main trade flows are from Chile and Japan to Europe,
North America and Asia. Europe is the main market for iodine with consumers
importing 11,000t in 2004 while North America imported some 6,700t that year.
Iodine prices have shown great volatility since 1990 as producers have been
unable to respond rapidly to changes in demand. By 1998, a combination of
demand outstripping supply and a reduction in stocks led to a steady fall in
prices until, by 2002, they reached their lowest levels for more than a
decade. In 2003, supplies started to tighten again and prices recovered
strongly until by the end of 2004 they were at their highest level since 1998.
Prices continued to rise through 2005.
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