Abstract
Tungsten market starting to reduce reliance on supply from China
A rise in global tungsten consumption of 25% in the period between 2002 and
2005, compared to a 20% growth in primary production led to a sharp increase
in prices during 2005 and 2006. Chinese production accounted for over 80% of
global primary production in 2005, but the tungsten market is showing signs of
reducing its reliance on supply from China. Mines exploiting rich deposits are
approaching exhaustion in many areas of the country and may not be replaced,
or those that do open may be extracting lower grade ores. The balance between
supply and demand in the tungsten market depends to a great degree on the
continuing efforts by the Chinese government to exert control over its
domestic tungsten industry. An increase in tungsten prices has historically
led to additional production in China in contravention of official production
quotas. If this were to occur again then prices could return to low levels
seen in the recent past. There have been very few new applications for
tungsten in recent years and most end use markets are relatively mature. This
means that average growth rates tend to be generally in line with cyclical
economic activity. However, global demand rose from 45,100tW in 2002 to
60,500tW in 2005, an average of 10%py. Demand for tungsten is forecast to grow
by an average 3%py to 2010, when it will reach 68,250t.
The key trends, issues and developments in the market are analysed in this
major new report from Roskill. It provides a clear insight into the industry
and its trends, and an authoritative analysis of the prospects for the future.
What the report gives you
- Independent, in-depth research and analysis
- Essential market intelligence for successful business planning
- Detailed survey of production and processing in 38 countries
- Up-to-date profiles of the activities of over 100 tungsten producing and
processing companies, including China Minmetals Corporation, Dynacor,
Lermontovsky Mining Corp. and Xiamen Tungsten Corp.
- Forecasts for end-use consumption and world supply and demand
Report highlights
Chinese consumers are now the largest users of primary tungsten consuming an
estimated 20,000tW, or 33% of the global total in 2005. This compares to
9,000tW and 25% in 1996. The other main areas of consumption in 2005 were
Europe (16,150t or 27%), the USA (8,800t or 15%) and Japan (7,950tW or 13%).
The main use for tungsten is in the manufacture of cemented carbides, or
hardmetals, which accounted for an estimated 58% of the world consumption of
tungsten in 2005. The steel sector represented around 17% of global
consumption, as tungsten is used in tool, stainless and full alloy steels, as
well as in superalloys.
The pattern of tungsten consumption varies sharply from country to country. In
the USA, tungsten mill products are relatively more important than in other
industrialised countries, accounting for 40% of US demand compared to 7-11% in
Europe, Japan and China. By contrast, chemical and other applications have a
greater importance in Japan, representing 26% of tungsten demand, compared
with less than 6% in Europe and China and under 2% in the USA.
The average annual price of tungsten fluctuated between US$40 and US$65/mtu
between 1990 and 2004. Growth in demand combined with lower availability of
Chinese material saw prices more than double in 2005 to an average of
US$123/mtu. Prices have remained at this level in 2006.
If the Chinese government is able to control domestic production levels then
prices for tungsten seem destined to remain at the current levels, if not rise
further. However, high prices will encourage recycling and the opening of new
mines outside China, especially in Australia, Canada, the USA and Vietnam.
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