The Economics of Manganese

No substitute in global production of steel

Most manganese, around 90% of global output, is used in the production of iron and steel, an application in which it is essential and where it has no real substitutes. Trends in consumption of manganese thus reflect those in the global steel industry and will continue to do so.

Global steel production has been in a growth phase since the turn of the century and output rose by an average of about 6%py between 2000 and 2006. Steel demand has been forecast to increase by nearly 7%py in 2007/08 and by 4-5%py to 2015. On the basis of those forecasts, demand for manganese could reach 18-19Mtpy contained Mn by 2015.

The regional pattern of growth in demand for steel is uneven, with China recording very high rates of increase. Strong growth is also seen in India and Russia, while the USA, Japan and western Europe have stable demand.

The key trends, issues and developments in the market are analysed in this major new report from Roskill. It provides a clear insight into the industry and its trends, and an authoritative analysis of the prospects for the future.

What the report gives you

• Independent, in-depth research and analysis
• Essential market intelligence for successful business planning
• Detailed survey of production and processing in over 60 countries
• Up-to-date profiles of the activities of over 70 producing and processing companies and potential projects, including CVRD, BHP Billiton, Privat and Eramet
• Forecasts for end-use consumption and world supply and demand

A key indicator of the potential for growth in steel demand is per capita consumption. While the per capita consumption in industrialising countries is increasing, it generally lags behind that of the major industrial economies. India, in particular, has enormous latent steel demand. A limiting factor in steel demand is the growing competition from alternative materials in some markets, such as automobiles, where the use of aluminium is increasing. The level of substitution would, however, need to be many times greater than it is now to have a significant impact on overall steel demand.

The structure of the manganese mining industry continues to change, with ownership of production capacity increasingly concentrated. As of 2007, BHP Billiton controlled approximately 17% of global supply, with Privat, Eramet, Vale (formerly CVRD) and Assmang bringing the total up to about 50%. Privat has been highly acquisitive in recent years and now controls all mine production in Ukraine, in addition to owning mines in Georgia and Ghana. In late 2007 it won the battle to acquire the Australian producer ConsMin. Privat, like the other major mine producers, is vertically integrated into the production of manganese ferro-alloys and output from its mines is probably destined mainly for captive use. This has implications for the global supply-demand balance.

This growing concentration of ownership and vertical integration is extending into the steelmaking sector, where, not that long ago, many producers moved out of backward integration. The prime example of this is ArcelorMittal, the world' s largest steelmaker, which intends to become largely self-sufficient in raw materials. It is a partner in the Kalgadi project in South Africa, which will be one of the world' s leading manganese ore and Fe-Mn producers when it comes on stream in 2010, and in late 2007 it announced the acquisition of the Slovak Fe-Mn smelter OFZ.