The U.S. Solar Energy Market

Table of Contents

Chapter 1 Executive Summary

• Introduction
• Scope of Study: All Solar Systems and Products
• Not Included: Other Renewable Energy (RE) Sources
• Not Included (With Qualifications): Nonrenewable Energy
• (NRE) Sources
• Research Methodology
• Study Focus Primarily on PV
• Photovoltaic (PV) Cells
• Silicon PV
• Thin Film PV Cells
• BOS Components: Inverters
• Batteries
• Charge Controllers
• Mounts/Racks
• Solar Thermal Systems
• Concentrating Solar Power
• Solar Water Pumps
• Solar Remote Systems
• Mobile/Portable Solar Systems
• Consumer/Other Products

• The Solar Market
  • The Global PV Market: Total Annual Production
  • Table 1-1 Total Global PV Production (1995-2007)
  • Annual Production by Country
  • U.S. Leads in Thin Film Production
  • The U.S. Solar Market: Total and Domestic Shipments
  • Table 1-2 U.S. Annual PV Shipments (Cells/Modules): Total/Domestic/Export (2002-2006) (MW)
  • Crystal Silicon vs. Thin Film
  • Table 1-3 U.S. PV Shipments: Crystal Silicon/Thin Film/Concentrator Cells (2002-2006) (% MW)
  • Retail Prices and Grid Parity
  • Total Solar Thermal Collector Shipments
  • Table 1-4 Total U.S. Solar Thermal Collector Shipments: 2000-2006 (Millions Square Feet)
  • Boom in High-Temperature Shipments
  • Table 1-5 Total U.S. Solar Thermal Collector Shipments: By Temperature Type (2004-2006) (Millions Square Feet)
  • Estimated Combined PV/ST Sales: 2003 to 2007
  • Table 1-6 U.S. Solar Power Market: Estimated Total Dollar Sales (2003-2007) ($ Millions)
  • Five External Factors Favor Future Growth
  • Internal Factors Favoring Growth
  • A Final Favorable Factor: Technological Momentum
  • Negative Factors in Growth: Overview
  • Sales Projection: 2008-2012
  • Table 1-7 U.S. Solar Power Market: Projected Total Dollar Sales (2008-2012) ($ Millions)
• Solar Competitors
  • Types and Size
  • Most Maintain Specialized Focus
  • Domestic vs. Foreign Marketers
  • Marketer Share: Global PV Production
  • Table 1-8 Global PV Production Share: By Company (2006)
• Solar Market Trends
  • Globalization of U.S. Solar Market
  • Horizontal and Vertical Integration
  • Commodity Production Now the Name of the Game
  • Stock Market Trends
  • Financing Trends
  • Emerging Financing Models
  • PV Trends: The Silicon Shortage
  • PV Trends: Thin Film
  • Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Trends
  • Solar Thermal Trends
  • Federal Government Trends
  • California Trends
  • Distribution Structure
  • Overview: Theme and Variations

Chapter 2 Solar Systems/Products

• Introduction: Market Parameters
  • Scope of Study: All Solar Systems and Products
  • Not Included: Other Renewable Energy (RE) Sources
  • Not Included (With Qualifications): Nonrenewable Energy (NRE) Sources
  • Distributed vs. Centralized Generation
  • Note on Abbreviations
• Solar-Electric (Photovoltaic) Systems
  • Overview: Solar-Electric vs. Solar-Thermal Technology
  • Study Focus Primarily on PV
  • Photovoltaic (PV) Cells
  • Basic Cell Elements
  • Silicon PV
  • Crystalline Cells
  • Monocrystalline Cells
  • Polycrystalline Cells
  • Mono More Efficient Than Poly
  • Boules, Blocks, and "Kerf"
  • The String Ribbon Method
  • Standard Crystal Silicon Cell Processing
  • Cells into Modules
  • Thin Film PV Cells
  • Six Thin Film Types
  • Thin Film Attributes and Drawbacks
  • Amorphous-Silicon (a-Si)
  • Thin Films, BIPV, and Durability
  • PV Systems: On-Grid vs. Off-Grid
  • DC Solar vs. AC Utility
  • BOS Components: Inverters
  • Batteries
  • Charge Controllers
  • Mounts/Racks
  • Solar Trackers
  • Accessories
• Solar Thermal Systems
  • Overview
  • Solar Heating and Cooling of Water and Air
  • Solar Heating Systems: Active and Passive
  • Solar Water Heating Systems: Collectors
  • Evacuated-Tube Collectors
  • Solar Water Heating: Low vs. Medium Temperature
  • Water Heating Systems: Active vs. Passive
  • Active Water Heating Systems: Direct (Open-Loop)
  • Active Water Heating Systems: Indirect (Closed-Loop)
  • Passive Water Heating Systems
  • ICS (Batch) Systems
  • Thermosiphon Systems
  • Swimming Pool Systems
  • Solar Air Heating Systems: More Complex
  • Active Air Heating Systems: Low Temperature
  • Active Air Heating Systems: Medium Temperature
  • Radiant Floor Systems
  • High-Temperature Industrial Systems
  • Passive Air Heating Systems
  • Three Basic Types
  • Solar Cooling Systems
• Concentrating Solar Power (CSP)
  • CSP Basics
  • CSP vs. Conventional PV
  • CSP So Far Limited to Desert Settings
  • Dishes, Troughs, and Power Towers
• Other Solar Systems/Products
  • Solar Water Pumps
  • Solar Remote Systems
  • Mobile/Portable Solar Systems
  • Consumer/Other Products

Chapter 3 The Solar Market

• U.S. Solar Market in a Global Context
• Overview
• The Global PV Market: Total Annual Production
• Table 3-1 Total Global PV Production (1995-2007)
• Total Cumulative Production
• Table 3-2 World Cumulative Production (2000-2007)
• Annual Production by Country
• Table 3-3 Global PV Production: % MW Share (2006)
• Table 3-4 U.S. PV Production: 2000-2006 (MW)
• U.S. Leads in Thin Film Production-For Now
• Table 3-5 Thin Film Production: % Share (2003-2006)
• Annual Installations by Country
• Table 3-6 Global PV Annual Installations: Germany, Japan, U.S. (2005-2007) (MW)
• Table 3-7 U.S. Annual PV Installations: 2001-2007 (MW)

• The U.S. PV Market
  • Overview
  • Total and Domestic Shipments
  • Table 3-8 U.S. Annual PV Shipments (Cells/Modules): Total/Domestic/Export (2002-2006) (MW)
  • Exports
  • Table 3-9 Share of US PV Shipments: Domestic vs. Exports (2002-2006) (MW)
  • Imports
  • Table 3-10 U.S. PV Shipments: Imports (2002-2006) (MW)
  • Export Destinations
  • Table 3-11 Share of US Exports of PV Cells/Modules: By Country/Continent (2006) (MW)
  • Shipments by Type: Cells vs. Modules
  • Table 3-12 Percent Share of U.S. PV Shipments: Cells vs. Modules (2002-2006) (% MW)
  • Crystal Silicon vs. Thin Film
  • Table 3-13 U.S. PV Shipments: Crystal Silicon/Thin Film/Concentrator Cells (2002-2006) (% MW)
  • Table 3-14 U.S. PV Shipments: Exports by Crystal Silicon vs. Thin Film (2005/2006) (MW)
  • Thin Film Numbers in Flux
  • PV Shipments Distribution
  • By Market Sector
  • Table 3-15 Percent Share of U.S. PV Shipments: Distribution by Market Sector (2005/2006) (% MW)
  • By Distribution Channel
  • Table 3-16 U.S. PV Shipments Units and Share: Distribution by Distribution Channel (2006) (MW)
  • By End-Use
  • Table 3-17 Percent Share of U.S. PV Shipments: Distribution by End-Use (2005/2006) (% MW)
  • Value of PV Shipments
  • Table 3-18 U.S. PV Shipments: $ Value by Type (2005/2006) ($ Millions)
  • Figure 3-1 Share of U.S. PV Shipment Dollar Value: Crystal Silicon vs. Thin Film (2006)
  • Prices: Crystal Silicon PV
  • Table 3-19 U.S. PV Prices: Crystal Silicon Cells vs. Modules (2005/2006)
  • Prices: Thin Film PV
  • Price Per Installed Watt
  • Retail Prices and Grid Parity
  • PV Efficiency
• The U.S. Solar Thermal Market
  • Overview
  • Total ST Collector Shipments
  • Table 3-20 Total U.S. Solar Thermal Collector Shipments: 2000-2006 (Millions Square Feet)
  • Boom in High-Temperature Shipments
  • Table 3-21 Total U.S. Solar Thermal Collector Shipments: By Temperature Type (2004-2006) (Millions Square Feet)
  • Medium-Temp Shipments by Segment
  • Figure 3-2 Share of Solar Thermal Shipments by Medium-Temperature Segment (2006)
  • Value of ST Shipments
  • Table 3-22 Total U.S. Solar Thermal Collector Shipments: Dollar Value by Temperature Type (2005/2006) ($ Millions)
  • Medium-Temp Shipments Value
  • ST Prices
  • ST Distribution: By Market Sector
  • Figure 3-3 Share of Solar Thermal Shipments by Market Sector (2006)
  • By Distribution Channel
  • By End-Use
  • Figure 3-4 Share of Solar Thermal Shipments by End-Use (2006)
  • ST Exports
  • Domestic ST Shipments by State
• U.S. Solar Market: Sales and Growth
  • Estimated Combined PV/ST Sales: 2003 to 2007
  • Table 3-23 U.S. Solar Power Market: Estimated Total Dollar Sales (2003-2007) ($ Millions)
  • Sales and Growth by Category
• Factors in Future Growth
  • Positive Factors in Growth: Overview
  • Five External Factors Favor Growth
  • The Economy: NRE Prices and Supplies
  • Ecology: Climate Change
  • Politics: National Security
  • Private Sector Investment
  • Public Sector Support
  • Internal Factors Favoring Growth
  • The Solar Sales Pitch
  • Long-Term Benefits
  • Medium-Term Benefits
  • Short-Term Benefits
  • Remote Infrastructure: Immediate Benefits
  • Transportation: Solar Lights/Signals
  • Telecommunications: Repeaters and Sensors
  • Remote Buildings/Facilities
  • Rural and Emergency Response
  • A Final Favorable Factor: Technological Momentum
  • Growing Excitement
  • Negative Factors in Growth: Overview
  • Expensive Price
  • Systems Affordability
  • Lack of Investment
  • Government Involvement
  • Favorable Foreign Frameworks
  • California and the Other States
  • Lukewarm Federal Support
  • Legal/Regulatory Issues
  • Utility Obstacles
  • The Credit Crisis
  • Technological Issues: The Silicon Shortage
  • Thin Film Comes on Strong-But Skeptics Unconvinced
  • CSP Suddenly Booming-But Questions Remain
• Market Projections
  • Sales Projection: 2008-2012
  • Table 3-24 U.S. Solar Power Market: Projected Total Dollar Sales (2008-2012) ($ Millions)
  • Assumptions
  • PV Projections
  • Solar Thermal Projections

Chapter 4 The Competitors

• Overview
• Competitive Context
• Highly Scientific
• New "Distributed" Paradigm
• Public/Private Interaction
• Young Formation
• Myriad Divisions
• Extra-Market Factors Integral to Market Structure
• Solar Competitors
  • Types and Size
  • Most Maintain Specialized Focus
  • Domestic vs. Foreign Marketers
  • Marketer Share: Global PV Production
  • Table 4-1 Global PV Production Share: By Company (2006)
  • Major Share Shakeup on the Way
  • Competitors by Product Category/Segment
    • Competitors: PV Cells/Modules
    • Table 4-2 Selected List of U.S. Solar Market Competitors: PV Cells and Modules
    • Competitors: Thin Film
    • Table 4-3 Selected List of U.S. Solar Market Competitors: Thin Film
    • Competitors: PV Manufacturing Equipment
    • Table 4-4 Selected List of U.S. Solar Market Competitors: PV Cell/Module Manufacturing Equipment
    • Competitors: Concentrating Solar Power (CSP)
    • Table 4-5 Selected List of U.S. Solar Market Competitors: CSP/CVP
    • Competitors: Inverters
    • Table 4-6 Selected List of U.S. Solar Market Competitors: Inverters
    • Competitors: Charge Controllers
    • Table 4-7 Selected List of U.S. Solar Market Competitors: Charge Controllers
    • Competitors: Batteries
    • Table 4-8. Selected List of U.S. Solar Market Competitors: Batteries
    • Competitors: Electronic Measuring and Monitoring Products
    • Competitors: Solar System Mounts/Racks
    • Table 4-9 Selected List of U.S. Solar Market Competitors: Mounts/Racks
    • Competitors: Solar Thermal Systems
    • Table 4-10 Selected List of U.S. Solar Market Competitors: Solar-Thermal Products/Systems
    • Competitors: Solar Pumps
    • Table 4-11 Selected List of U.S. Solar Market Competitors: Solar Pumps
    • Competitors: Passive Solar Systems
    • Table 4-12 Selected List of U.S. Solar Market Competitors: Passive Solar Products/Systems
    • Competitors: Solar Lighting Systems
    • Table 4-13 Selected List of U.S. Solar Market Competitors: Solar Lighting
    • Competitors: Solar Cooking Ovens and Refrigerators/Freezers/AC
    • Table 4-14 Selected List of U.S. Solar Market Competitors: Solar Oven Marketers
    • Competitors: Solar Consumer Products
    • Competitors: Portable/Mobile Solar Generators
    • Competitive Profiles
    • Introduction
    • Competitive Profile: SunPower
    • Amazing Strengths
    • Large-Scale Projects, International Expansion
    • Recent U.S. Projects
    • Skyrocketing Production
    • Solar Access Financing Program
    • Quantum Leap in Sales
    • Speculation
    • Profile: Sharp Solar
    • Global Leader with Major U.S. Presence
    • Solar Pioneer
    • Small-Scale Focus
    • Aesthetics
    • Convenience
    • Horizontal Integration
    • A Rare Solar Advertiser
    • Into A-Si Hybrids
    • Speculation
    • Competitive Profile: First Solar
    • Tops in Thin Film
    • Cadmium Telluride Mystery Success
    • Company History
    • Production Explosion
    • Supply Already Spoken For
    • Sales Fireworks
    • Utility-Scale Hopes
    • Speculation
    • Competitive Profile: Nanosolar
    • A CIGS Breakthrough
    • VC Investment History
    • Huge Production in Silicon Valley
    • Speculation
    • Competitive Profile: Evergreen Solar
    • Unique Manufacturer
    • Company History
    • String Ribbon Manufacturing Efficiency
    • No Profit Yet
    • Scrambling for Investment
    • EverQ
    • Silicon Contracts to Meet Billion-Dollar Commitments
    • New Plant Facilitated by Massachusetts
    • Utility Partnership
    • Speculation

Chapter 5 Solar Market Trends

• Competitive Trends
  • Globalization of U.S. Solar Market
  • Growing Foreign Presence
  • Homegrown Competitors Look Overseas
  • Horizontal and Vertical Integration
  • Commodity Production Now the Name of the Game
• Investment Trends
  • VC Firms and Solar Investment
  • VC Trends in 2006
  • VC Trends in First-Half 2007
  • Table 5-1 Selected List of VC Investments in Solar Firms: 2006 and First-Half 2007
  • Table 5-1[Cont.] Selected List of VC Investments in Solar Firms: 2006 and First-Half 2007
  • Stock Market Trends
  • Table 5-2 Solar Companies Trading on Public Stock Markets: By Exchange and Stock Symbol, 2007
  • Solar Stocks
• Financing Trends
  • Financing Is Fundamental
  • Emerging Financing Models
  • Focus: SunEdison
  • New Solar Financiers
  • Cautionary Note
  • Solar Loan Programs
  • Public Sector Financing
• Technology Trends and Competitive Dynamics
  • PV Trends: Silicon
  • The Silicon Shortage Is Easing
  • Silicon Numbers by the Metric Ton
  • Leading Silicon Producers
  • European and Australian Silicon Startups
  • Chinese Silicon Startups
  • Silicon Shortage Coping Strategies
  • PV Trends: Thin Film
  • Recent Advances Lead to "Gold Rush"
  • TF Production Set to Soar
  • Asian Companies Embrace Hybrid TF Variations
  • Few Challengers in CdTe
  • CIGS Is Where the Action Is
  • Lower Chinese Prices
  • Thin Film Promise
  • Thin Film Problems
  • PV Trends: Emerging Alternatives
  • Hybrid Cells
  • Organic Cells
  • Color-Sensitive Cells
  • Quantum Dots
  • Holographic Cells
  • Breakthroughs in Efficiency
  • Metallurgical Silicon
  • PV Trends: Manufacturing Equipment
  • PV Trends: Miscellaneous
  • Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Trends
  • CSP Back with a Vengeance
  • CSP Potential
  • Vinod Khosla and CSP
  • Scaled-Down CSP for Cities
  • Complex U.S. Developments
  • Focus: Ausra
  • Focus: Bright Source Energy
  • Focus: Solel Solar Systems
  • Concentrating Photovoltaics (CPV)
  • Solar Thermal Trends
  • Product Trends
  • Project Trends
  • Applications Trends
• Government Trends
  • Federal Government Trends
  • The Solar America Initiative
  • Table 5-3 Solar Initiative America: Technology Pathway Partnerships (2007 Through 2009)
  • Table 5-3[Cont.] Solar Initiative America: Technology Pathway Partnerships (2007 Through 2009)
  • California Trends
  • Other State Trends
  • State Rebate Programs
  • Table 5-4 State Rebates for PV Installation: 2007
  • State Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)

Chapter 6 Solar Market Distribution

• Distribution Structure
  • Overview: Theme and Variations
  • Distribution and Manufacturers
  • Distribution and Distributors Value-Added Resellers Value-Added Distributors Wholesale Distributors Table 6-1 Selected List of U.S Solar Distributors (2007) Distribution and Dealer/Installers Table 6-2 Selected List of U.S Solar Dealers/Installers by State Table 6-2[Cont.] Selected List of U.S Solar Dealers/Installers by State Distribution and Direct-Sales Retailers Distribution and the End-User System Designers Systems Integrators Table 6-3 Selected List of U.S. Solar Systems Integrators
• Appendix: Selected Addresses of Solar Marketers
  • PV Cell/Module Marketers
  • Solar Thermal Marketers
  • Balance-of-System/Other Solar Marketers