WiMAX: Ambitions and Reality. A Detailed Market Assessment and Forecast at the Global, Regional and Country Level (2006-2012)

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

2. Report roadmap

3. An assessment of the prospects for WiMAX "Fixed" or "Mobile" WiMAX?

• 3.1 The progress so far
  • Terminology: "WiMAX" or "Pre-certified WiMAX" or "Proprietary"?
  • WiMAX Certification in a Nutshell
• 3.2 Timeline for network rollouts and subscriber adoption
• 3.3 The next five years
  • 3.3.1 How can operators make money from WiMAX?
  • 3.3.2 How will operators charge for WiMAX services?
  • 3.3.3 How will subscribers with multiple WiMAX devices be charged?
  • 3.3.4 Will the devices be subsidized?
  • 3.3.5 What will be the killer application for WiMAX?
  • 3.3.6 When will compelling devices be available?
  • 3.3.7 What will the relative importance of fixed versus mobile services be?
  • 3.3.8 Will WiMAX IPR be cheaper than 3G (or LTE)? Defining interoperability in the core network
  • 3.3.9 Will a robust WiMAX ecosystem emerge?
  • 3.3.10 In which bands will WiMAX operate?
  • 3.3.11 Will it be Mobile WiMAX or LTE? And does it matter? Wi-Fi, HSDPA, EV-DO RevA

4. Market forecast approach and methodology

• 4.1 Challenges in forecasting WiMAX adoption
• 4.2 Approach and methodology
• 4.3 Sources of information
• 4.4 Market forecast model
• 4.5 Subscribers and devices
  • Subscribers: fixed, personal broadband and mobile; business, residential, consumer

5. The addressable market

• 5.1 The evolution of the fixed broadband market
• 5.2 Growth in the fixed wireless broadband access market
• 5.3 The cellular market
• 5.4 The mobile wireless broadband market

6. WiMAX in the fixed and mobile broadband market

• 6.1 WiMAX in the fixed broadband market
• 6.2 WiMAX in the mobile broadband market
• 6.3 Total WiMAX subscribers

7. The key to WiMAX success: device availability

• 7.1 Killer applications? Try killer devices
• 7.2 More devices than subscribers
• 7.3 One subscriber, one identity, many devices
• 7.4 Moving beyond the desktop modem and the laptop
• 7.5 The market for WiMAX devices

8. Turning a profit

• 8.1 Subscribers' willingness to pay
• 8.2 How much can you charge for WiMAX services?
• 8.3 Service plans for fixed and mobile data access
  • 8.3.1 Flat-fee or capped services?
  • 8.3.2 Symmetric or uplink-constrained throughput?
  • 8.3.3 Personal or family plans?
  • 8.3.4 Pre-paid or post-paid?
  • 8.3.5 Free mobile VoIP?
  • 8.3.6 Single or multiple devices?
  • 8.3.7 Technology or service based?
• 8.4 Data service revenues
• 8.5 VoIP service revenues

9. The vendor market

• 9.1 Timeline for infrastructure and device availability
• 9.2 WiMAX device sales
• 9.3 WiMAX device revenues
• 9.4 Equipment revenues
• 9.5 Total WiMAX equipment revenues

10. Regional forecast and assessment of WiMAX adoption

• 10.1 Regional data
  • 10.1.1 Asia Pacific
  • 10.1.2 North America
  • 10.1.3 Western Europe
  • 10.1.4 Eastern Europe
  • 10.1.5 Latin America
  • 10.1.6 Middle East, North Africa
  • 10.1.7 Sub-Saharan Africa
• 10.2 Country data
  • 10.2.1 China
  • 10.2.2 India
  • 10.2.3 Japan
  • 10.2.4 South Korea
  • 10.2.5 Australia
  • 10.2.6 USA
  • 10.2.7 Canada
  • 10.2.8 Germany
  • 10.2.9 United Kingdom
  • 10.2.10 France
  • 10.2.11 Spain
  • 10.2.12 Italy
  • 10.2.13 Russia
  • 10.2.14 Brazil
  • 10.2.15 Mexico
  • 10.2.16 Argentina

11. Conclusions: to 2012 and beyond

• 11.1 Crucial steps for the success of WiMAX
• 11.2 Broader market trends
• 11.3 WiMAX' s ambitions and reality
• 11.4 A peek beyond 2012
  • 11.4.1 Scenario one: WiMAX becomes a well-established niche technology
  • 11.4.2 Scenario two: WiMAX dominates the wireless-broadband market
• 11.5 Action items for vendors and network operators

• Figure 1. Global forecast highlights: devices and subscriptions
• Figure 2. Global forecast highlights: service and equipment devices
• Figure 3. Fixed or Mobile?
• Figure 4. Timeline for WiMAX adoption
• Figure 6. WiMAX core network
• Figure 6. The WiMAX ecosystem
• Figure 7. The roadmap to next-generation wireless broadband technologies
• Figure 8. Adoption drivers and enablers
• Figure 9. Market forecast model
• Figure 10. Main access types among WiMAX subscribers from 2007 to 2017
• Figure 11. Growth in cellular and fixed broadband subscriptions
• Figure 12. Comparison between growth in broadband subscriptions and mobile broadband devices
• Figure 13. Broadband subscribers by region
• Figure 14. Broadband lines per 100 people
• Figure 15. Broadband lines by technology
• Figure 16. BWA and FTTH subscribers
• Figure 17. BWA subscribers by region
• Figure 18. BWA as a percentage of broadband in different regions
• Figure 19. Penetration of cellular voice services
• Figure 20. Cellular subscribers by region
• Figure 21. 2G and 3G cellular subscribers
• Figure 22. Mobile broadband devices by region
• Figure 23. Mobile broadband devices
• Figure 24. Worldwide WiMAX subscribers
• Figure 25. Fixed WiMAX and other BWA subscribers
• Figure 26. Fixed WiMAX subscribers by region
• Figure 27. Fixed WiMAX subscribers in developed and emerging markets
• Figure 28. Fixed WiMAX subscribers using IEEE 802.16-2004 and 802.16e-2005
• Figure 29. 3G and mobile WiMAX subscriptions
• Figure 30. Initial subscriber growth for GSM, WCDMA, Wi-Fi and WiMAX
• Figure 31. Mobile WiMAX subscribers in developed and emerging markets
• Figure 32. Mobile WiMAX subscribers
• Figure 33. Main access type among WiMAX subscribers (2006-2012)
• Figure 34. WiMAX subscribers by region
• Figure 35. WiMAX subscribers in developed and emerging markets
• Figure 36. Fixed WiMAX subscribers as a percentage of global WiMAX subscribers and of fixed broadband subscribers in the region
• Figure 37. Mobile WiMAX subscribers as a percentage of global WiMAX subscribers and of mobile broadband subscribers in the region
• Figure 38. Total WiMAX subscribers as a percentage of global WiMAX subscribers and of fixed broadband subscribers in the region
• Figure 39. Fixed, mobile and total WiMAX subscribers as a percentage of global WiMAX subscribers and of domestic fixed and mobile broadband subscribers
• Figure 40. Mobile devices per subscriber, by country and by region
• Figure 41. Timeline for device availability
• Figure 42. WiMAX devices in use
• Figure 43. Percentage of mobile broadband devices with WiMAX
• Figure 44. Distribution of fixed and mobile devices by region and by country in 2012
• Figure 45. Distribution of mobile WiMAX devices by region and by country in 2012
• Figure 46. Mobile WiMAX devices per 100 people
• Figure 47. Mobile WiMAX devices by region
• Figure 48. WiMAX laptops by region
• Figure 49. WiMAX data-centric devices by region
• Figure 50. WiMAX phones by region
• Figure 51. WiMAX CE devices by region
• Figure 52. Data and VoIP ARPU for different services by region by 2012
• Figure 53. Data service revenues by primary device
• Figure 54. Total data service revenues by region
• Figure 55. Data service revenues by region: fixed subscribers
• Figure 56. Data service revenues by region: fixed and mobile subscribers
• Figure 57. Service revenues: mobile data by region
• Figure 58. VoIP subscribers by service type (fixed, mobile, fixed and mobile)
• Figure 59. VoIP subscribers by region
• Figure 60. Service revenues: total VoIP by region
• Figure 61. Service revenues: fixed VoIP by region
• Figure 62. Service revenues: fixed and mobile VoIP by region
• Figure 63. Service revenues: mobile VoIP by region
• Figure 64. Service revenues: total data and VoIP by region
• Figure 65. Driving large-scale WiMAX deployments
• Figure 66. WiMAX device sales
• Figure 67. Device sales by region
• Figure 68. WiMAX device revenues
• Figure 69. WiMAX device cumulative revenues
• Figure 70. Device revenues by region
• Figure 71. WiMAX devices ASP
• Figure 72. WiMAX equipment revenues
• Figure 73. Infrastructure equipment revenues by region
• Figure 74. Subscriber and equipment revenues by region and country
• Figure 75. WiMAX cumulative equipment revenues
• Figure 76. Cumulative count of WiMAX new base stations
• Figure 77. Subscribers and devices per base station
• Figure 78. Global equipment revenues
• Figure 79. Global cumulative equipment revenues
• Figure 80. Cumulative equipment revenues per subscriber
• Figure 81. Total WiMAX equipment revenues by region
• Figure 82. Subscribers and equipment revenues by region and country
• Figure 83. Asia Pacific: summary
• Figure 84. Asia Pacific: devices and subscriptions
• Figure 85. Asia Pacific: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
• Figure 86. North America: summary
• Figure 87. North America: devices and subscriptions
• Figure 88. North America: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
• Figure 89. Western Europe: summary
• Figure 90. Western Europe: devices and subscriptions
• Figure 91. Western Europe: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
• Figure 92. Eastern Europe, Middle East, North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa: summary
• Figure 93. Eastern Europe: devices and subscriptions
• Figure 94. Eastern Europe: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
• Figure 95. Latin America: summary
• Figure 96. Latin America: devices and subscriptions
• Figure 97. Latin America: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
• Figure 98. Middle East, North Africa: devices and subscriptions
• Figure 99. Middle East, North Africa: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
• Figure 100. Sub-Saharan Africa: devices and subscriptions
• Figure 101. Sub-Saharan Africa: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
• Figure 102. China: devices and subscriptions
• Figure 103. China: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
• Figure 104. India: devices and subscriptions
• Figure 105. India: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
• Figure 106. Japan: devices and subscriptions
• Figure 107. Japan: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
• Figure 108. South Korea: devices and subscriptions
• Figure 109. South Korea: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
• Figure 110. Australia: devices and subscriptions
• Figure 111. Australia: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
• Figure 112. USA: devices and subscriptions
• Figure 113. USA: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
• Figure 114. Canada: devices and subscriptions
• Figure 115. Canada: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
• Figure 116. Germany: devices and subscriptions
• Figure 117. Germany: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
• Figure 118. UK: devices and subscriptions
• Figure 119. UK: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
• Figure 120. France: devices and subscriptions
• Figure 121. France: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
• Figure 122. Spain: devices and subscriptions
• Figure 123. Spain: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
• Figure 124. Italy: devices and subscriptions
• Figure 125. Italy: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
• Figure 126. Russia: devices and subscriptions
• Figure 127. Russia: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
• Figure 128. Brazil: devices and subscriptions
• Figure 129. Brazil: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
• Figure 130. Mexico: devices and subscriptions
• Figure 131. Mexico: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
• Figure 132. Argentina: devices and subscriptions
• Figure 133. Argentina: WiMAX services and equipment revenues

• Table 1. Fixed and Mobile WiMAX compared
• Table 2. WiMAX Forum Certification Waves
• Table 3. Drivers and challenges for WiMAX over the next five years
• Table 4. WiMAX-enabled applications
• Table 5. Competing cellular technologies
• Table 6. A comparison of HSDPA, LTE, EV-DO, UMB and WiMAX
• Table 7. Markets and regions with a separate WiMAX forecast
• Table 8. One ARPU, multiple devices, multiple individuals
• Table 9. The market opportunity for fixed and mobile access with WiMAX
• Table 10. Ambitions and reality
• Table 11. Action items for key WiMAX players