Photovoltaic Five-Year Market Forecast 2002-2007

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 Objective

1.2 Strategic Planning

1.3 Format

1.4 Methodology

2. EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW

2.1 Market Categories

2.2 Current Market Demand

2.3 Historic Market Performance

2.4 Five-Year Market Forecast

2.5 Long-Term Trends to 2010

3. MARKET ENVIRONMENT AND HISTORY

3.1 Introduction

Market Structure

Market Environment

Market and Industry Overview

3.2 Historic Market Performance

Application Growth

Regional Trends

Selling Channels

3.3 Module Price History and Trends

History of Pricing

Learning-Curve Theory

Historic and Current Market Behavior

Forecasts of Module Price

Power Module Pricing

Pricing of Large Modules in Quantity

4. FIVE-YEAR FORECAST

4.1 Industry and Market Overview

4.2 Market Share and Growth Rates

4.3 Revenue Growth

4.4 Forecast Shipment Volume

4.5 Application Details

4.6 Long-Term Trends

5. MARKET SECTOR ANALYSIS

5.1 Communications

5.2 Cathodic Protection

5.3 Transportation Signals

5.4 Water Pumping

5.5 Village Power

5.6 Outdoor Lighting

5.7 Other Applications

5.8 Consumer Power

5.9 Grid-Connected

5.10 Consumer Indoor

LIST OF FIGURES

1 2002 World Region Demand for Photovoltaic Power Modules

2 Market Shares by Module Size

3 Five-Year Forecast of PV Shipments, 2001-2007

4 Long-Term Photovoltaic Forecast - MWp, 1995-2010

5 Historic Market Share - Major Application Groups, 1980-2010

6 Historic PV Shipments (MWp), Major Application Groups, 1980-2002

7 Variations in Market Growth, 1980-2002

8 2002 World Region Demand for Photovoltaic Power Modules

9 Price History and Forecast, Business as Usual Scenario

10 Price History and Forecast, Accelerated Scenario

11 Price History and Forecast, Power Module Shipments

12 Price History and Forecast - Power Modules vs. Large Modules in Quantity

13 Worldwide Module Dollar Volume - Business as Usual vs. Accelerated Growth

14 Forecast Growth - Remote Commercial, Grid-Connected, Consumer, 1999-2007

15 Long-Term Photovoltaic Forecast (MWp), 1995-2010

16 Long-Term Market - Business as Usual, 1980-2010

17 Market Shares by Module Size

LIST OF TABLES

1 Major Photovoltaic Market Categories - Status - PV Valuation, Customer Description

2 Historic Shipments and Growth Rates by Major Application, 1985-2002

3 Five-Year Growth 2002-2007 - Comparisons by Major Applications

4 Photovoltaic Applications

5 Historic Application Details - Global Demand in MWp, 1985-2000

6 Trends in Market Shares - Major Regions (Point-of-Sale - Distributor/OEM/Project)

7 Selling Channels for Major Applications - 2002 by Volume Share

8 History of Module Price vs. Cumulative Shipments, 1976-2001

9 Power Module Price Reductions - Current vs. Constant Dollars, 1994-2001

10 Power Module Price Trends - Global Average vs. Large Modules in Quantity, 1990-2010

11 Photovoltaic Market 2001-2007 - Summary of Industry Revenues, MWp, Prices

12 Market Share by Major Applications - Historic and Forecasted - 1990-2007

13 Shipment Growth by Major Application - History and Forecast - 1985 to 2007

14 Worldwide Module Revenue vs. MWp Shipments - Business as Usual vs. Accelerated Growth, 1999-2007

15 Forecast Application Details, 1997-2007 - Business as Usual

16 Forecast Application Details, 1997-2007 - Accelerated Scenario

17 Long-Term PV Market Forecast - 1980-2010 18 Long-Term Growth Rates by Major Application, 1980-2010

19 Application Categories

20 Market Share by Application and Module Size - 1992, 1995, 1998, 2001

21 Communications Applications

22 Cathodic Protection Applications

23 Transportation Signals Applications

24 Water Pumping Applications

25 Village Power Applications

26 Outdoor Lighting Applications

27 Other Applications

28 Consumer Power Applications

29 Grid-Connected Applications

30 Consumer Indoor Applications