4G Wireless - From 2008 to 2014 - LTE, UMB, 802.20, WiMAX and HSPA+

Table of Contents

• Scope of Study
• Sources and Methodology
• Statistical Notes

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• 1.1 And the Winner Is?
• 1.2 Few Significant Contracts Yet
• 1.3 Critical Inflection Points
  • 1.3.1 Sprint and Mobile WiMAX
  • 1.3.2 UMB and 802.20
  • 1.3.3 LTE Timeline
  • 1.3.4 Virgin Carriers
  • 1.3.5 China and India
• 1.4 More or Less Fragmentation
• 1.5 WiMAX Honeymoon Over
• 1.6 Elephants Move Slowly
• 1.7 Asia
• 1.8 Third Generation Has Been Here Yet Still Many GSM Subscribers
• 1.9 Femtocells
• 1.10 Clean Break From Circuit Switching
• 1.11 Key Differentiators between the Technologies
  • 1.11.1 WiMAX
  • 1.11.2 LTE
  • 1.11.3 UMB
  • 1.11.4 802.20
• 1.12 4G Figures and Forecasts
  • 1.12.1 4G Subscribers
  • 1.12.2 4G Subscriber Revenues
  • 1.12.3 4G Devices Shipments and Revenues
  • 1.12.4 4G Base Station Shipments, Deployments and Revenues
  • 1.12.5 Femtocell Subscribers and Revenues
  • 1.12.6 Femtocell Device Shipments and Revenues

SECTION TWO

• Common Trends, Definitions, Technologies
• 2.1 Network Upgrade Drivers (Why LTE, 802.16m or UMB)
• 2.2 Design Goals
• 2.3 Enabling Technologies
• 2.4 Common Challenges
  • 2.4.1 Performance Gains over Evolved 3G
  • 2.4.2 PAPR, Uplink Budget and Performance
  • 2.4.3 Frequency Reuse
  • 2.4.4 Frequency Reuse Methods/Technologies
  • 2.4.5 Spectrum Scarcity and Cost
  • 2.4.6 Site Acquisition
  • 2.4.7 Intellectual Property Rights
• 2.5 Standards Activity
  • 2.4.1 IMT Advanced
  • 2.4.2 NGMN Group
• 2.6 4G New Spectrum Allocation
• 2.7 Open Network Initiatives

SECTION THREE

• Long Term Evolution (LTE)
• 3.1 Definitions LTE and SAE
• 3.2 Status and Time to Market
• 3.3 Backers
• 3.4 Contract Announcements
• 3.5 Technical Overview
  • 3.5.1 Air Interface
    • 3.5.1.1 Downlink
    • 3.5.1.2 Uplink
  • 3.5.2 Channel sizes
  • 3.5.3 Modulation
  • 3.5.4 Throughout
  • 3.5.5 MIMO, Intelligent Antenna Support
  • 3.5.6 Spectrum
  • 3.5.7 Latency
  • 3.5.8 Duplexing
  • 3.5.9 Core Network
  • 3.5.10 Other Design Goals
• 3.6 Technical Issues Trends
  • 3.6.1 Performance compared to Evolved HSPA (HSPA+)
  • 3.6.2 Unproven Technology
• 3.7 LTE Market Factors
  • 3.7.1 Timing
  • 3.7.2 Certification of User Devices
  • 3.7.3 Whose Standard?
  • 3.7.4 IPR
  • 3.7.5 Competition
  • 3.7.6 Response to Carriers
  • 3.7.7 Cost
  • 3.7.8 Installed Base
  • 3.7.9 Risk
  • 3.7.10 Spectrum
• 3.8 LTE Figures and Forecasts
  • 3.8.1 LTE Subscribers and Revenues
  • 3.8.2 LTE Device ASP, Shipments and Revenues
  • 3.8.3 LTE Base Station Shipments, Deployments and Revenues
  • 3.8.4 LTE Femtocell Subscribers and Revenues
  • 3.8.5 LTE Femtocell Device Shipments and Revenues

SECTION FOUR

• Ultra Mobile Broadband (UMB)
• 4.1 UMB Intro
• 4.2 Standards and Committees
• 4.3 Status
• 4.4 Time to Market
• 4.5 Backers
• 4.6 Contract Announcements
• 4.7 Available Opportunity and 3GPP2 Installed Base
• 4.8 Technical Overview
  • 4.8.1 Air Interface
  • 4.8.2 Handoffs
  • 4.8.3 Legacy Support
  • 4.8.4 Latency
  • 4.8.5 Channel sizes and Spectrum.
  • 4.8.6 Modulation
  • 4.8.7 Throughout
  • 4.8.8 MIMO, Multiple Antenna Support
  • 4.8.9 VoIP Users Supported
  • 4.8.10 Duplexing
• 4.9 Technical Issues, Trends and Considerations
  • 4.9.1 Unproven
  • 4.9.2 OFDM Uplink Budget
  • 4.9.3 OFDM and N=1 Performance
  • 4.9.4 4x4 MIMO
• 4.10 UMB Market Factors
  • 4.10.1 Support
  • 4.10.2 Loss of Major Customers
  • 4.10.3 Time to Market
  • 4.10.4 Qualcomm Factor
  • 4.10.5 IEEE 802.20
  • 4.10.6 What Happened to FLASH-OFDM
  • 4.10.7 Installed Base
  • 4.10.8 Intellectual Property Licensing Fees
  • 4.10.9 Public Perception
• 4.11 UMB Figures and Forecasts
  • 4.11.1 CDMA Subscribers
  • 4.11.2 CDMA Device Shipments
  • 4.11.2 UMB Subscribers and Revenues
  • 4.11.3 UMB Device ASP, Shipments and Revenues
  • 4.11.4 UMB Base Station Shipments, Deployments and Revenues
  • 4.11.5 UMB Femtocell Subscribers and Revenues
  • 4.11.6 UMB Femtocell Device Shipments and Revenues

SECTION FIVE

• IEEE 802.20
• 5.1 802.20 Definitions
• 5.2 802.20 Lives
• 5.3 Time to Market
• 5.4 Contributors and Voters
• 5.5 Contract Announcements
• 5.6 Technical Overview
  • 5.6.1 Work in Progress
  • 5.6.2 Expected Attributes
• 5.7 802.20 Market Factors
  • 5.7.1 Support
  • 5.7.2 Too Late?
  • 5.7.3 Credibility
  • 5.7.4 The Bottom Line
• 5.8 802.20 Figures and Forecasts
  • 5.8.1 802.20 Subscribers and Revenues
  • 5.8.2 802.20 Device ASP, Shipments and Revenues
  • 5.8.3 802.20 Base Station Shipments, Deployments and Revenues
  • 5.8.4 802.20 Femtocell Subscribers and Revenues
  • 5.8.5 802.20 Femtocell Device Shipments and Revenues

SECTION SIX

• Evolved High Speed Packet Access (HSPA+)
• 6.1 HSPA and HSPA+ Defined
• 6.2 Standards and Committees
• 6.3 Status
• 6.4 Time to Market
• 6.5 Backers
• 6.6 Contract Announcements
• 6.7 HSPA Main Technologies (Releases 5 and 6)
  • 6.7.1 HS-DSCH (High-Speed Shared Downlink Channel)
  • 6.7.2 E-DCH (Enhanced Dedicated Channel)
  • 6.7.3 Reduced Transmission Time Interval (TTI)
  • 6.7.4 Scheduling and Link Adaptation
  • 6.7.5 Higher Order Modulation
  • 6.7.6 Hybrid ARQ and Soft Combining
• 6.8 HSPA+ Technical Attributes (Releases 7 and 8)
  • 6.8.1 Modulation
  • 6.8.2 Air Interface
  • 6.8.3 Throughput
    • 6.8.3.1 Downlink
    • 6.8.3.2 Uplink
  • 6.8.4 Voice Capacity
  • 6.8.5 Handoffs
  • 6.8.6 Latency
  • 6.8.7 Intelligent Antenna Support
• 6.9 HSPA Market Factors
  • 6.9.1 Upgrade Complexity
  • 6.9.2 Existing Networks
  • 6.9.3 Backwards Compatibility
  • 6.9.4 Proven Air Interface
  • 6.9.5 HSPA+ With MIMO
  • 6.9.6 Economies of Scale
  • 6.9.7 Low Risk Option
  • 6.9.8 Recoup Investment
  • 6.9.9 Uplink Budget
  • 6.9.10 Evaluation
• 6.10 HSPA+ Figures and Forecasts
  • 6.10.1 WCDMA Subscribers
  • 6.10.2 WCDMA Device Shipments
  • 6.10.3 HSPA+ Subscribers and Revenues
  • 6.10.4 HSPA+ Device ASP, Shipments and Revenues
  • 6.10.5 HSPA+ Base Station Shipments, Deployments and Revenues
  • 6.10.6 HSPA+ Femtocell Subscribers and Revenues
  • 6.10.7 HSPA+ Femtocell Device Shipments and Revenues

SECTION SEVEN

• WiMAX 802.16
• 7.1 802.16 and WiMAX, Background
• 7.2 Standards and Task Groups of Note
  • 7.2.1 802.16e (802.16e-2005)
  • 7.2.2 802.16d (802.16-2004)
  • 7.2.3 802.16h
  • 7.2.4 Relay Task Group (802.16j)
  • 7.2.5 Task Group M (802.16m)
• 7.3 The WiMAX Forum
  • 7.3.1 Members
  • 7.3.2 WiMAX Forum Role
  • 7.3.3 Certification
  • 7.3.4 Current Certified WiMAX Forum Product and Timelines
• 7.4 802.16 2004, 802.16e-2005 and WiMAX feature set
  • 7.4.1 Channel Sizes
  • 7.4.2 Frequency Allocations
  • 7.4.3 Duplexing.
  • 7.4.4 Modulation
  • 7.4.5 FFT Size
  • 7.4.6 Mobile WiMAX Wave 1 and 2 Profiles, Key Attributes
• 7.5 Technical Considerations
  • 7.5.1 Data Rates and Spectral Efficiency
  • 7.5.2 WiMAX Performance
    • 7.5.2.1 Summary of Limitations
    • 7.5.2.2 Frequency Reuse, Handoffs, and Mobility
    • 7.5.2.3 Interference Management
    • 7.5.2.4 Uplink (PAPR and TDD)
    • 7.5.2.5 MIMO a Must?
  • 7.5.3 Intelligent Antennas use for WiMAX
    • 7.5.3.1 MIMO (Matrix A and B)
    • 7.5.3.2 AAS
• 7.6 Market Considerations
  • 7.6.1 WiMAX Base Station and CPE Pricing
  • 7.6.2 Certification Expectations
  • 7.6.3 Interoperability
  • 7.6.4 Proprietary and Competing Solutions
  • 7.6.5 WiMAX Everywhere
  • 7.6.6 Laptop WiMAX
  • 7.6.7 Skipping to Wave 2 Devices
  • 7.6.8 Dual Mode Cellular/WiMAX Devices
  • 7.6.9 WiMAX vs. CDMA/WCDMA
  • 7.6.10 WiBro
  • 7.6.11 WiMAX as a Hot Spot Solution
• 7.7 WiMAX Figures and Forecasts
  • 7.7.1 WiMAX Fixed and Mobile Subscribers and Revenues
  • 7.7.2 WiMAX Phone, CPE and Modem ASPs, Shipments and Revenues
  • 7.7.3 WiMAX Base Station ASP, Deployments, Shipments and Revenues
  • 7.7.4 WiMAX Femtocell Subscribers and Service Revenues
  • 7.7.5 WiMAX Femtocell Shipments and Revenues

TABLES

• Table 1-1
• 4G Subscribers
• World Market 2007-2014

• Table 1-2
• 4G Subscribers by Technology
• World Market 2014

• Table 1-3
• 4G Subscriber Revenues
• World Market 2007-2014

• Table 1-4
• 4G Subscriber Revenues by Technology
• World Market 2014

• Table 1-5
• 4G Device Shipments
• World Market 2007-2014

• Table 1-6
• 4G Device Shipments by Technology
• World Market 2014

• Table 1-7
• 4G Device Revenues
• World Market 2007-2014

• Table 1-8
• 4G Device Revenues by Technology
• World Market 2014

• Table 1-9
• 4G Base Stations
• Shipments and Deployments
• World Market 2007-2014

• Table 1-10
• 4G Base Station Deployments by Technology
• World Market 2014

• Table 1-11
• 4G Base Station Revenues
• World Market 2007-2014

• Table 1-12
• 4G Base Station Revenues by Technology
• World Market 2014

• Table 1-13
• 4G Femtocell
• Subscribers
• World Market 2007-2014

• Table 1-14
• 4G Femtocell Subscribers by Technology
• World Market 2014

• Table 1-15
• 4G Femtocell
• Subscriber Revenues
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 1-16
• 4G Femtocell
• Subscriber Revenues by Technology
• World Market 2014

• Table 1-17
• 4G Femtocell
• Device Shipments
• World Market 2007-2014

• Table 1-18
• 4G Femtocell Device Shipments by Technology
• World Market 2014

• Table 1-19
• 4G Femtocell
• Device Shipment Revenues
• World Market 2007-2014

• Table 1-20
• 4G Femtocell
• Device Shipment Revenues by Technology
• World Market 2014

• Table 3-1
• LTE Subscribers
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 3-2
• LTE Subscriber Revenues
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 3-3
• LTE Device Shipments
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 3-4
• LTE Device Revenues
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 3-5
• LTE Base Station Deployments
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 3-6
• LTE Base Station Revenues
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 3-7
• LTE Femtocell Subscribers
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 3-8
• LTE Femtocell Subscriber Revenues
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 3-9
• LTE Femtocell Device Shipments
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 3-10
• LTE Femtocell Device Revenues
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 4-1
• CDMA Subscribers (IS-95, CDMA2000, and EV-DO all Revisions)
• World Market 2007-2014

• Table 4-2
• CDMA Device Shipments
• World Market 2007-2014

• Table 4-3
• EV-DO Subscribers (All Revisions)
• World Market 2007-2014

• Table 4-4
• EV-DO Device Shipments (All Revisions)
• World Market 2007-2014

• Table 4-5
• UMB Subscribers
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 4-6
• UMB Subscriber Revenues
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 4-7
• UMB Device Shipments
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 4-8
• UMB Device Revenues
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 4-9
• UMB Base Station Shipments and Deployments
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 4-10
• UMB Base Station Revenues
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 4-11
• UMB Femtocell Subscribers
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 4-12
• UMB Femtocell Subscriber Revenues
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 4-13
• UMB Femtocell Device Shipments
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 4-14
• UMB Femtocell Device Revenues
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 5-1
• 802.20 Subscribers
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 5-2
• 802.20 Subscriber Revenues
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 5-3
• 802.20 Device Shipments
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 5-4
• 802.20 Device Revenues
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 5-5
• 802.20 Base Station Shipments and Deployments
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 5-6
• 802.20 Base Station Revenues
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 5-7
• 802.20 Femtocell Subscribers
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 5-8
• 802.20 Femtocell Subscriber Revenues
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 5-9
• 802.20 Femtocell Device Shipments
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 5-10
• 802.20 Femtocell Device Revenues
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 6-1
• WCDMA Subscribers
• World Market 2007-2014

• Table 6-2
• WCDMA Device Shipments
• World Market 2007-2014

• Table 6-3
• HSPA+ Subscribers
• World Market 2009-2014

• Table 6-4
• HSPA+ Subscriber Revenues
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 6-5
• HSPA+ Device Shipments
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 6-6
• HSPA+ Device Revenues
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 6-7
• HSPA+ Base Station Shipments and Deployments
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 6-8
• HSPA+ Base Station Revenues
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 6-9
• HSPA+ MIMO Enabled Base Station
• Shipments and Deployments
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 6-10
• HSPA+ Femtocell
• Subscribers
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 6-11
• HSPA+ Femtocell
• Subscriber Revenues
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 6-12
• HSPA+ Femtocell
• Device Shipments
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 6-13
• HSPA+ Femtocell Device
• Revenues
• World Market 2008-2014

• Table 7-1
• WiMAX Subscribers
• World Market 2007-2014

• Table 7-2
• WiMAX
• Subscriber Revenues
• World Market 2007-2014

• Table 7-3
• WiMAX
• Device Shipments
• World Market 2007-2014

• Table 7-4
• WiMAX
• Device Revenues
• World Market 2007-2014

• Table 7-5
• WiMAX Wave 2 Device
• Shipments and Revenues
• World Market 2007-2014

• Table 7-6
• WiMAX
• Base Station
• Shipments and Deployments
• World Market 2007-2014

• Table 7-7
• WiMAX
• Base Station
• Revenues
• World Market 2007-2014

• Table 7-8
• WiMAX
• Femtocell
• Subscribers
• World Market 2007-2014

• Table 7-9
• WiMAX
• Femtocell
• Subscriber Revenues
• World Market 2007-2014

• Table 7-10
• WiMAX
• Femtocell
• Shipments
• World Market 2007-2014

• Table 7-11
• WiMAX
• Femtocell
• Shipment Revenues
• World Market 2007-2014