Abstract
Executive Summary
RF MEMS component started to appear on the market in 2002 namely BAW
resonators from Agilent for mobile phones. In the meantime, other RF MEMS
products have started to ship in commercial products including switches,
inductors and micro- mechanical resonators. In 2009 it is expected that also
tuneable capacitors and cavity resonators will be in serial production.
The market for RF MEMS components was US$ 126 million in 2004, confirming the
WTC forecast from 2002. It is expected to grow rapidly in the next few years
to over US$ 1.1 billion in 2009. The market is expected to grow rapidly in
2007 through 2009 as full-scale production is anticipated to start for the
majority of RF MEMS components.
In 2004, Bulk Acoustic Wave (BAW) devices including duplexers and filters for
mobile phones were accounting for the major part of the market with US$
116million. In 2009, BAWs for mobile telephony will still dominate the market
in turnover an units with approximately US$ 470 million corresponding to 40%
of the total market.
However, MEMS switches and Micro-mechanical resonators will also offer
interesting opportunities in volume and high end markets as traditional
issues with reliability, packaging and CMOS integration are being solved. The
main development effort is now not anymore on the RF MEMS component side but
on the designer side to develop novel architectures that fully take advantage
of RF MEMS capabilities.
Worth mentioning is the emerging use of micro-mechanical resonators as timing
devices in replacement of bulky off-chip quartz oscillators in consumer
electronics and IT peripherals. MEMS resonators as clock devices will account
for more than 20% of the market in 2009 with US$ 250 million. Switches are
expected to keep their promise and enter cell phones from 2007 for band and
mode switching.
Other lucrative markets will be switches for Automated Test Equipment and RF
Test - a US$ 80 million opportunity - and switches for defence applications
which are expected exceed US$ 70 million in 2009.
The RF MEMS industry has experienced in 2000 to 2005 the typical "hype curve
of new technologies". Following the shape of this curve, the RF MEMS sector
reached the peak of its visibility in 2003 with the first commercial samples
of MEMS switches. This period was subsequently replaced by scepticism, as
weaknesses in packaging technology and reliability issues became apparent,
producing a so-called "Trough of Disillusionment" in the development profile.
Major progress have been made however in the 2003 to 2005 period with regard
to reliability, packaging, integration and costs. As the industry and
technology is maturing, it appears that RF MEMS technology has now left this
dip behind and emerged shining into the "Slope of Enlightenment".
The last major challenge that the RF MEMS industry has to face to fully
exploit the potential of the technology is not anymore at the component level
but at the system level. An aggressive "top-down" approach is required, where
new systems are developed that leverage all the advantages of RF MEMS
components, including signal linearity, low insertion losses and power
savings, which are decisive in designing simplified multi-mode,
multi-standard, reconfigurable systems.
As these architectures are not currently available, MEMS manufacturers are
still required to educate, convince and work more closely with RF block
designers and terminal manufacturers to develop suitable systems. As of
September 2005, 14 companies are known to ship serial products or commercial
samples. RFIC and RF passive device manufacturers play the leading role for
the commercialisation of RF MEMS in volume markets. After the pioneer Agilent
and Infineon, Fujitsu and Epcos are ramping up into volume production. Beside
these large players, RF MEMS start-up companies play a major role in the
commercialisation of RF MEMS as they are in most cases the first companies to
put products on the market. For example, the start-up companies Magfusion,
Teravicta and Radant MEMS shipped the first commercial RF MEMS switches
samples.
In conclusion, RF MEMS represents one of the few MEMS devices that will enter
the exclusive club belonging to US$ billion markets along with Inkjet heads,
DLPs and pressure sensors. After mobile phones, great opportunities exist for
spin-off applications in consumer and IT sectors. Outside of mass markets, RF
Instrumentation and Automated Test Equipment as well as military applications
offer the best prospects, especially for MEMS switches. The next biggest
opportunities for - after bulk acoustic wave duplexers and filters - belong to
switches and micromechanical resonators.
Conclusions
RF MEMS components have a great market potential with the market estimated to
reach more than US $ 1.1 billion in 2009. RF MEMS have often been mentioned as
one of the next "killer" MEMS applications. Indeed, they are one of the few
MEMS able to bring new functionalities and improved performances in mass
products since the introduction of acceleration sensors for automotive airbags.
All major RF chipsets manufacturers, a large number of MEMS manufacturers and
IP developers and start-ups are involved in RF MEMS development. We have
referenced around 60 industrial participants and even more academic players.
Can everyone have a share of this market? We think so. However, we do not
recommend that everyone should target the "killer market" of mobile telephony,
as business opportunities vary according to the type of market player and
their capabilities.
- Mainly the major RF chipsets and semiconductor companies such as Agilent,
Philips, Infineon or the newcomers Triquint and Skyworks are able to address
the mobile phone market, as profit margins will be extremely low for RF MEMS
for these applications. This market can only be profitable for players able to
setup extensive capacity production lines, fully automated and with large
wafer size. Additionally, RF MEMS will be supplied fully integrated with other
passive and active RF devices in functional blocks. RF chipsets manufacturers
are best placed to develop and supply these RF modules.
- Some start-ups are addressing the mobile phone market such as Wispry and
Siverta and are even driving innovation. However, we expect these small
companies to be acquired by larger RF module manufacturers when successful.
Also the start-ups in the field of micro- mechanical resonators such as
Discera, SiTime or Silicon Clocks will probably remain fabless and license the
technology to larger players or may be acquired too.
- We expect the best business opportunities for start-ups and medium-sized
MEMS players to be in medium-sized markets, such as base stations and
instrumentation. In these markets, demand is expected to range from some
100,000 to some tens million units in 2009, which will suit the production
capacity of start-ups and SMEs. These types of companies can also cope with
the flexibility in design needed in applications such as instrumentation,
where requirements are high and vary for each series. Development and
production revenues are expected to be substantial, as retail price will be
relatively high compared to the number of units shipped.
- Substantial business opportunities also exist in the defence markets for
start-ups and SMEs. Historically, large companies such as Raytheon and or
Rockwell were addressing the military markets and performed pioneering work in
the RF MEMS field. These pioneers retain only a limited development effort,
but position themselves now more as system integrators of RF MEMS, and
cooperate with the start-ups.
In conclusion, the market for RFMEMS devices, in addition to being one of the
most significant emerging MEMS markets in terms of size, is open to all MEMS
players from the small start-up to the international IC manufacturer.
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